Disturbance off the Carolinas

8:00AM EDT 6 September Update
Shear, the main thing preventing 99L from developing, will continue today, the upper level low that never backed off as predicted continues to tear up 99L, which looks more like a front than a tropical disturbance at the moment.

It still has a low level circulation, however, and if it manages to survive the windshear it then could develop, and meander a bit. Chances of it ever doing so are even lower than yesterday, however. It still may slide westward a bit, but it seems the models are just not handling this system very well, and it's not expected to amount to much, if anything.

Looking beyond 99L, there is not much else going on. So far this season has been lulls sprinkled with weak systems and two due west monster category 5 Caribbean Hurricanes. We still have the rest of September and October to get through, but so far the US has not had anything to deal with other than the flooding assisted by the weaker systems in Texas.

Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance off Southeast Coast (99L) In Next 2 days
Code:



(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

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11:05PM EDT 5 September Update
99L is still being sheared, and the 33% chance for development mentioned earlier still holds. It's looking more likely that it will not affect the mainland. If the circulation center survives the night, and the shear relaxes the chances for development go up. But it appears now that even through most of tomorrow, that won't be the case.

4:40PM EDT 5 September Update
Aircraft recon has flown into the disturbance off the coast (99L) and has found a circulation and released a vortex message with 33 knot flight level winds and a pressure of 1005mb.

Suggesting that a tropical or subtropical depression may be forming or has formed off the southeast. Advisories may begin as early as 5PM, but the system remains highly sheared this afternoon with the center of circulation mostly exposed so it's more likely tomorrow before it will form.

Models currently are very unreliable with this system, but if it forms, along with the new data from recon. We should have a slightly better picture with later model runs. However, slowly moving storms are usually very difficult to forecast and folks along the southeast would be advised to watch to see what happens with this system.

That said, it is still most likely that it will head out to sea.

Original Update
Hurricane Felix, now a depression, is spinning itself out over the mountains of Central America, bringing massive amount of rainfall and flooding to the area after making landfall yesterday.

Much closer to home, the disturbance off the east coast of Florida (99L) is still a bit of a wildcard. There are signs of it both being a tropical system and subtropical system (a hybrid low), the center itself seems to be exposed, and the shear is still high in so there isn't too much chance for development today, but it may later if convection occurs more around the center after the shear lets up.

Only could it then become a tropical or subtropical system. There is an off chance the center may reform under the convection too, and if that happens it will likely be more subtropical.

Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance off Southeast Coast (99L) In Next 2 days
Code:



(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

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The lack of any real steering currents in the area makes predicting the track hard, it could go anywhere from staying offshore and out to sea to affecting the Carolinas. Right now it's about a 50/50 split on it making landfall or not. More likely would be in the Carolinas. (GFDL and models tends toward South Carolina, while some of the others say North Carolina, yet more take it out to sea) If this happened it would be around the weekend. It's equally as likely (maybe even more likely) that it will move out to sea.

Since this hasn't developed yet it's just worth watching.

Where do you think this system will go? Will it develop? Let us know here in the forecast lounge.

More to come later...

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