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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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jessiej
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78463 - Fri Sep 14 2007 09:17 PM

Looking at the lastest infrared, the wind shear is is meeting up with Ingrid. It looks like a batch of convection is trying to move to the SW. Don't know if this is the LLC, but it looks like it is trying to slide underneath.

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005

Edited by jessiej (Fri Sep 14 2007 09:20 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: jessiej]
      #78465 - Fri Sep 14 2007 11:54 PM

Ingrid is going to struggle or try to survive for the next many days as it moves NW...

Area over the western carribean is still my area of focus for the beginning of next week. With high pressure over the NE U.S. and NW Atlantic pressures in the carribean should be droping. Where and if it develops is uncertain....but its probably the better of the 2 watched areas since we have along time if any with Ingrid.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78466 - Sat Sep 15 2007 08:48 AM

What is that over southeast of the bahamas looks scary at 8:25am its a blow up of deep thunderstorms and it has an eye.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #78467 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:00 AM

I am seeing a definte wnw bias to Ingrid where the 24h ofcl track won't even verify. If the mid level structure of the storm is sheared away whats left to steer? The LLC may just slide under the shear level along with the westerlies. There jumping up and down over at the CMC office - for once in the last 5 years they might have got it right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

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Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: Robert]
      #78468 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:02 AM

Quote:

What is that over southeast of the bahamas looks scary at 8:25am its a blow up of deep thunderstorms and it has an eye.





That is strange,I am going to assume that that is not a true "eye".Maybe one of the Mets can chime in and explain what this is.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #78469 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:24 AM

Boy that IS freaky looking! Maybe it's just a coincidental break in the clouds that looks like an "eye?" It doesn't really look like there's rotation there??

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: Robert]
      #78470 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:37 AM

Quote:

What is that over southeast of the bahamas looks scary at 8:25am its a blow up of deep thunderstorms and it has an eye.




I wouldn't say it has an 'eye'. It appears to be an upper level low and has a definite circulation, so I guess you could say its LLC appears a bit like the center of a tropical system. I saw this feature start to pick up convection last night, but there is no mention of it in discussions here or in Miami. So it must just be a ULL.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78472 - Sat Sep 15 2007 10:39 AM Attachment (338 downloads)

I think you're right, but it IS odd. The "eye" wasn't visible long. Here's a screen capture for posterity. The Puerto Rico view is a good one to watch this thunderstorm complex in for now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

Edited by tekkrite (Sat Sep 15 2007 10:51 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
cluster [Re: tekkrite]
      #78473 - Sat Sep 15 2007 10:56 AM

hmm.. a few thunderstorms blew up east of the bahamas. that's all it is right now. if it keeps persisting, though... could cause some trouble. that's a synoptically favored place. really everything from that region southward to panama will be looking good for trouble to start over the next few days (upper trough has to clear the middle of the caribbean for further south, though). keep looking for something over in this general area... or somethings.
most of the models have a big enough weakness punched in the ridge where ingrid's decaying swirl is headed that almost none push it westward, now. this time of year a system getting into that general area can 'go kyle' on ya.. the weak, little movement shown for whatever makes it past the shear, if anything, could be the start of one of those events.
wave behind ingrid is fairly well organized, and has a fairly good bulge on the ITCZ. the northeastern portion of this thing is already getting some shear, but the part to the south is scraping along under it. possible spot to watch for slow development.
HF 1456z15september


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: cluster [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78474 - Sat Sep 15 2007 11:26 AM

Timing is the key to if Ingrid threatens the USA whether it be TD or TS.. IF the storm in the Craribean developes and hit's Florida, Ingrid will stall as it can't head east or west with high to the east and low to the west. If the storm does not form OR if it heads west, Ingrid heads west to the USA. Shear will continue to rip Ingrid for 2 days, Monday, a new day has begun and shear will only be at 15 knots. Models like NOGAPS, HRMF, and UKMET point out that it could make a comeback that day. I agree, this year, all the storms have surprised us.. Ingrid can't move north of Bermuda do to a strong ridge, it could move east then west and sort of loop around till the high weakens, basically what the GFS points out. I expected this to be a TD at 11 a.m., didn't think it would hold it's status this far out in 30-35 knots of shear, yet we should remember Barry. All of the east Coast should watch Ingrid, but not worry. Ingrid is a tough little gal, if Irene (2005) survived the devestating shear, so can Ingrid!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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