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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
      #78523 - Tue Sep 18 2007 06:47 AM

7:12pm edt, September 18 2007 Update:
The wave off the Florida coast has been organizing a bit in the day and may have the chance to become a depression (tropical or perhaps subtropical) in the next day or so, but likely not until it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. We'll be watching it.

At the least, a good deal of rain for Florida is likely tomorrow.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico favor development, but not rapid development. More to come as it happens.



To discuss, we have the post in the Forecast Lounge, for guesses at suggestions about what the storm may do
Also, for reporting right now conditions in your area or anything locally noteworthy about the system, here.

Joe Bastardi Video on this wave


12:45pm, September 18 2007 Update:
Invest 93L just declared near 25.8N 79.2W, or approximately 70 nautical miles E of Miami Florida.

Current conditions appear marginally favorable for further development of this system. Persons in Florida need to carefully monitor the progress of this potential development. Early guidance indicators are for intensification as the deep layer wind analysis appears to be improving toward favorable development parameters.

More to come....


TT
*********************************************************
There are no storms being tracked right now, and no "invest" areas, but there are a few areas of interest in the Tropics.

First, Ingrid dissipated yesterday and the remnants remain northeast of the Caribbean, conditions there are not likely to do much with the system. So odds are it won't redevelop.

Another wave east of the Caribbean may do something later, but it's not looking all that great either.



Finally a lot of energy has moved into the Bahamas, and is tracking west. Not enough time to really develop before getting into Florida, but it may eventually track into the Gulf and form into something there. So folks from Florida to Texas will want to watch that area. There will likely be a lot of shear in the Western Gulf by the time that system would reach that way, so too intense of development is unlikely, but still storms in the Gulf can be quite unpredictable at times intensity wise. Worth watching at least. It will likely make a very rainy day here in Florida, however.


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Radar Loops
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

93L (East of Florida Wave) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 93L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Ingrid Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Ingrid - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ingrid


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ingrid (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ingrid (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ingrid

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ingrid
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ingrid -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78524 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:41 AM

With regards to the area of disturbed weather just to the east of Florida, models have hinted at possible tropical cyclogenisis, in part due to a reflection of an upper low now cutting off over the East Gulf/Florida area. As I am looking at the local Miami radar this a.m., I am now for the first time, seeing what appears to be a tight, albiet weak cyclonic circulation just to the west of Andros Island ( east of Miami ). Of course, all of the precip. remains to the east and north of this, however would be interesting to see if this may simply be an "eddy" or what may initiate as a developing surface low. Better question would be whether or not it might "sit" or immediately move westward.

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jojoindian6
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78525 - Tue Sep 18 2007 10:32 AM

I know you said the chances are very slim that the remnants of Ingrid would regenerate, but if the system is still able to be identified as related to Ingrid and did regenerate, would it be renamed? Just curious. I forget how it works exactly when a hurricane changes basins. Would this situation be handled the same way? Thanks for your knowledge.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: jojoindian6]
      #78526 - Tue Sep 18 2007 11:42 AM

Re: Ingrid I am not positive, but if there remained an identifiable vortex perhaps the re_naming is automatic; but where as here the vortex seems to be opened in to a wave, it is discretionary if it regenerates as to how to name it. The wave still exists and is still trying to fire convection, and technically it is remenants of Ingrid. Once the shear lessens will it regeneragte?
I would guess 15-20% on that.
Things closer to Florida are getting mopre interesting.
Of radar is used it is possible to begin to detect a circulation between Andros and Freeport almost due east of Bimini. However the situation is complicated because the mid-upper low is tumbling to the WSW.

Development is probable according to many models, but not for two days and then in the E GOM...However, I will be closely watching how the suspicious area in the Bahamas begins to attract convection over the next several hours, or not.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: doug]
      #78527 - Tue Sep 18 2007 11:47 AM

Current conditions in the Bahamas are hostile.. the same amount fo shear that ripped Ingrid apart, though this "area of disturbed weather" is large. Conditions could improve later on today and tommorrow for something to happen, right now, all bets are off. Ingrids remnants still remain disorganized and now a 5% chance of regeneration, though some models are doing that. The wave in back of X-Ingrid looks ok, could be tagged if it can gather more convection and maybe a LLC. So I guess sthe tropics are neither quiet or active.. just a so so week.

*12:10 p.m., Invest 93L has been tagged near the South Florida coastline*

Edited by allan (Tue Sep 18 2007 12:11 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: allan]
      #78529 - Tue Sep 18 2007 12:17 PM

Weather is definitely deteriorating here in SE Florida. I'm about 10 min S of PBIA and we just had a squall line move through here -NE to SW moving about 30 mph with about 3/4" of rain in 15 min. Hasn't rained like that in weeks. Felt like a feeder band. Something is brewing. 93L is now up on Navy site

http://intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0512&animate=true

Edited by craigm (Tue Sep 18 2007 12:25 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78531 - Tue Sep 18 2007 12:43 PM

Shear has dramatically decreased where 93L is located.. 30 knots all the way down to 10-15 knots. This should allow some intensification, though it should be slow to occur, sort of the response I expect to see on the next TWO. There's been some discussion on the wunderground blogs on how strong it will get, nobody will know until it developes. the 12ZGFS is now showing a 1008 MLB storm in the GOM, though the same was with Felix, even after it was a major Hurricane. We'll see what happens, can't wait to see the GFDL and HRMF.
here is the new, updated cimms shear map
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78532 - Tue Sep 18 2007 12:45 PM


Important update just went up on Main Page.

Invest 93L declared not too far E of Miami Florida...

Slowly developing situation.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78534 - Tue Sep 18 2007 01:24 PM

observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 30 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 34 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.

This is a buoy by the bahamas pretty strong winds out there right now


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: hurricane expert]
      #78535 - Tue Sep 18 2007 01:37 PM

Radar view of 93L...



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78536 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:10 PM

Windshear continues to be around 25-30kt around a strong upper low over SW florida. Thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by the upper low also. 93L still doesnt have any sw winds near the center. Slowly conditions will improve over time, but not at the moment.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78537 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:19 PM

Any idea as to when this thing will start moving west?Just wondering if this will be Florida's "Humberto".On and off storms here all day.Very warm SST's around 87 degrees.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Sep 18 2007 02:21 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78538 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:21 PM

Been watching this area on and off all morning... was expecting to see a Invest tag... We got both Sats and Radar and most likely a few ships in that general area that should help keep good tabs on this invest. Until it moves over into the GOM. Upper level winds are a little hostile from the SW over this area... but should weaken some in the next 24 hrs... This will be a good chance to see how warm the Gulf Stream current is...

Vis Sat loop
NHC runs on 93L - 1600 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007


Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 18 2007 02:33 PM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78539 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:29 PM

check out the GFDL model if this takes place then it has more time over the water before crossing florida

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78540 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:36 PM

Hi Scott:

The wind shear data reported by other sources is a decreasing (less than) 15kts situation. The visible just posted suggests SW movement of the low clouds south of G Bahama Island. I think a circulation is forming there and that is confirmed by the radar presentation. Some convection blow ups this afternoon too.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78541 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:47 PM

Shear really isn't a consideration this early in "the game", so to speak, because the primary mechanism for upward vertical motion, and resultant surface pressure falls/low development is divergent jet forcing. Been peeking at the RUC analysis fields and they've been showing some pretty sick H25 divergence and H70 omega (upward vertical motion) fields since early this morning offshore the breadth of the Florida east coast. Looks like some sort of low level vort south of GBI and west of Andros.

The evolution of the developing cutoff low on watervapor imagery is quite dramatic, with a nice "doughnut hole" developing over Tampa Bay. By tonight, the water vapor presentation will be striking - likely resembling one of those wrapped up occluded winter surface lows you see south of the Aleutians.

Over the next day or so, there should be some pretty big rainfall totals along the Florida east coast, and especially over south Florida.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: doug]
      #78542 - Tue Sep 18 2007 02:49 PM

You are right, new obs are showing sw winds and shear has dramatically decrease to 15 knots over the center.. still 30 knots on the batch of rain over the center.. lets not forget, this storm is broad.. everyone in Florida will get rains from it.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: allan]
      #78543 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:00 PM

Quote:

You are right, new obs are showing sw winds and shear has dramatically decrease to 15 knots over the center.. still 30 knots on the batch of rain over the center.. lets not forget, this storm is broad.. everyone in Florida will get rains from it.




Per tony, the Upper Level Low that is about over tampa... Water Vapor should continue to the wsw and be enough far away i think for 93L to get going sometime late tomorrow afternoon... or into thursday morning... i was looking at TCPOD NUMBER.....07-116
.... and AF is not schedule to fly until the 20th... but i bet if this invest holds... we could see 6 hly flights starting at noon tomorrow? And i would think that one of the NOAA planes would be in the mix to on research mission... if this can hold against the shear... which i think it can.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78544 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:03 PM

Actually... lol ... NOAA 43 is in the Bahama's on the way back to tampa?... there at 23,000ft, At 18:41:00Z (last observation), the observation was 64 miles (102 km) to the SE (144°) from Nassau, Bahamas.... WONDER if they may do a "fly by" of our invest... I'll keep watchin to see in about 10 mins they should be close if they keep current heading..

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 18 2007 03:05 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78545 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:17 PM

Well doesn't look like NOAA 43 is going to turn towards the invest.... there heading right towards Miami... They may not have enough fuel... or they don't have enough time, or the invest tag didn't go up into they were already in flight from Barbado's, on ferry flight back home. But they are getting about 20mph winds at 23,000ft from the From 263° at 17 knots (From the W at ~ 19.5 mph) on avg..

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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