OrlandoHurricane
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Central Florida
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The remnants of Ingrid are showing some increased convection this evening. As it moves slowly north it will be coming out of the strong shear which has torn it apart the past four days. In the next few days conditions should reverse itself and Ingrid may start making a comeback as it comes underneath high pressure in the upper levels.
The site continues to monitor it and has a nice close-up of it.
Not sure if it will ever be a U.S. threat, though, a ridge of high pressure to it's north may put it on a westward path for a while.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Rain is currently offshore here and I keep reading everything here. Maybe if it can stay off shore a little while and get some steady convection going but... just because there is low pressure and some stormy rain does not mean this has a center.
Barometer drops when the weather gets bad... simple and true.
I have a feeling we will be watching this a while but with the storm developing in the epac and with the strength of the ULL and others.. I have a problem buying into it being much beyond a semi-hybrid rainmaker.
We'll see... hard to believe it's so close by.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Ship report in the last hour indicates the Low Pressure center should be somewhere near:
SHIP S 0400z 26.10N -80.10W NNE 7.2KT 0.5M 4.0SEC 1010.0MB -1.0MB/3 hrs 26.1C (SST)
Buoy/ Ship observations-300nm radius of Satellite Center
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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that should put it somewhere near the coast... which i am looking at some local wx stations in the miami area...to see what there conditions are like..... and with radar data from Miami... seems it would put the CRC very near the coast of SE Florida. Notice in the last few hours .... very small tropical rain showers have fired up just off the coast of SE Florida...
FWYF1 lat: 25.59 lon -80.10 is just off Key Biscayne... so thats long. runs there to coast, but the lat is too far to the south of the ship obs?... also.. there is a weather station to the north of that near sunny isles beach, there pressure is down to 29.77... not sure if its calibrated right.. others in the area are in 29.85-90 range.
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 19 2007 01:31 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Nassau Airport, Bahamas, The (MYNN) 25-03N 077-28W 7M
Sep 19, 2007 - 12:00 AM EDT / 2007.09.19 0400 UTC
Wind: Variable at 2 MPH (2 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity: 94%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob: MYNN 190400Z VRB02KT 9999 SCT020 BKN080 25/24 Q1012 RE35
Georgetown, Exuma, Bahamas, The (MYEG) 23-28-30N 075-46-00W 3M
Sep 19, 2007 - 01:01 AM EDT / 2007.09.19 0501 UTC
Wind: from the SSW (210 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT):0
Visibility: 10 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain with thunder; Lightning observed
Precipitation last hour: 0.19 inches
Temperature: 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point: 69 F (21 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob: MYEG 190501Z AUTO 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT029 SCT038 BKN049 23/21 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0019
Freeport, Grand Bahama, Bahamas, The (MYGF) 26-33N 078-42W 11M
Sep 18, 2007 - 08:00 PM EDT / 2007.09.19 0000 UTC
Wind: from the E (090 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: showers in the vicinity
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity: 83%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.9 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob: MYGF 190000Z 09009KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT050 BKN070 25/22 A2990 RMK RE58
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/current/conditions/#
Based on last hour's wind directions from the 3 sites.
Freeport would be North of the center.
Georgetown would be ESE of the center.
Nassau would be closest to the center, using the "variable winds" and lowest pressure of the three sites, at 29.88 inches.
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Davida G
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Hastings, Florida
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Hastings Florida checking in here. We are getting some major rain and wind tonight. I went out to check the property, make sure the generator was still covered and things are just nasty out. I know it isn't a tropical storm yet, but it sure FEELS like one with the way the rain is coming through in waves with the heavy gusts of wind, tree limbs and shake all over the place and the sometimes sideways wall of water, but very little lightening and most of that is way off in the distance. We live out in an area called Flagler Estates and I am worried with all this rain we are going to lose some of the roads overnight. Many of them like ours are still unpaved and wash out way too easy. We will see what the morning brings. If nothing else, at least this will help out with the drought conditions in the state.
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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danielw, rock on my friend! I am really glad that you've posted those observations. Keep those coming. At the surface, the lower pressures are likely further east. into the Bahamas, and could transition even a little further east (will get back to that in a minute). For the minute...The radar signature moving into the Miami Dade area on radar is likely a vorticity within a larger circulation envelope. However, it is also the same relative area we were all looking at earlier for possible development. Frommy standpoint, that vorticity willlikely wash out as it moves inland within the larger area of low pressure. Also, if this is the trigger point for possible tropical development (which I highly doubt it will be), it is too close to the ULL and will likely fail to aquire tropical characteristics.
That said, here in SW Florida, it is a very comfortable summer night. Compared to usual summer evenings, this is not a tropical evening. It is relatively cool and the humidity feels pretty low. It is not often that I like to open the windows to the fresh air summer air, cuase the summer air feels pretty hot and humid most of the time...but this is one night that has tempted me. If a true tropical low was off Miami, I've lived here long enough to tell you that this evening would not feel this comfortable. There again, the area coming into miami dade is not tropical and likely not the culprit of possible tropical development (Just too close to the ULL).
From this standpoint, I will puase on model developments until tropical development comes to fruition. Likewise... The probable hot pocket for development is likely further east, from where danielw pointed out and to the east of there. If you follow the shortwave satellite loops , you can pick out the low level flow. It is tightening back there, so it is not a bad area to watch that area further east. If true tropical development happens, it will happen further back there. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Mean time, for folks on the east coast of Florida, not a bad time to remember that there was once a system named Ingrid out there. The systems remenants continue to show a defined low level of vorticity. Every time t-storms develop, they rip away again as shear continues. This has supported a mostly WNW-NW path. Come wednesday night, the shear will decrease and something may come back to life...Likewise, the lack of convection allowed the former Ingrid to missit's chance out to sea. It should be moving under some decent ridging to maintain a WNW-NW motion regardless of what happens. That said, keep one half of an eye on it in case it re-forms...maybe 93L is a teaser in general....
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Roughly 26N 75W
I can see the Invest attempting to reconfigure around that area tonight. Already tonight, there are hints that this indeed happening, while what was being tracked as 93Ls LLC earlier could easily, as Dem mentions, end up a transient vortice that spins itself out as it pushes inland. And really, I can't seem to buy a westerly surface wind in the vicinity of that early LLC, any longer.
93L is not a purely tropical system. I would suggest that waiting to experience or witness tell-tale signs of tropical cyclogenesis is fool's bait just yet. For now, we should probably think along the lines of Barry, or Gabrielle, or 96L, for recent analogous features which did, or maybe did, develop into an upgradeable system. In each of those cases, it was likely equally, if not even more appropriate, to apply the Hebert-Poteat technique when attempting to ascertain the Invest's legitimacy, and intensity.
Getting subtropical development so close to Florida during the peak of the season is most likely a little unusual, but given how often fronts have dropped south this season, shouldn't really be that surprising. This probably won't last for long, however. Water temps are just too warm and the air on 93s south and east far too juicy for whatever develops to be more subtropical, than tropical, I would bet. Will need to wash out the dry on its north and west. This might further limit development, initially, and keep some lid on the completeness of tropical transition. But, this becomes less likely the farther east 93 may end up forming/reforming.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Very good statements by Dem and Cield. Also Ingrids weak circulation is still getting sheared apart...its not out of the question of this becoming better organized in a couple days if it holds its circulation.
Shear has hampered the invest today thru the night.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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While we're passing around compliments lol
Ditto, and then some, on the "x" Ingrid comments! I've also been keeping a keen eye out on it, as have, obviously, so many of us, as well as the experts at the and the military. Once the eclipse cleared tonight, I have no other description for x Ingrid than "rebirth." Remains to be seen just how strong a rebirth this is, but without doubt, shear has lightened up a bit, and, as is often the case with a tenacious feature in a moderate shear environment, the strong upper level winds are fanning the current convection, without outright killing the system.. and sometimes, deepening the system, as is the case with 93, as well.
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Quote:
Call me crazy, but like I said in earlier posts, I want to see what a hurricane looks like.
I just want to see what a tropical depression looks like on my below-normal rain gauge in west central Florida. You are indeed crazy...I wish I had a time machine so I could send you to a trailer park in Florida City on August 24, 1992...you would never wishcast again. 
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Wind shear has now decreased to 10 knots over the center of 93L, thus making it favorable for development. Durinal Maximum did half of what I expected, does show a nice convective band of storms headed my way.. haven't checked the models yet but I doubt there any changes. It's all a wait and see, lets make this fun, if I was a wishcaster, I would say category 1 Hurricane in Melbourne LOL.. Moderators, feel free to delete that part. Satellite presentation looks subtropical to me, I would call this Subtropical Storm Jerry later on today, if it continues to organize and it should due to the favorable conditions. Recon should be in there later on today, we'll get some really good info in 93L by then.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I dont think recon is going in until tomorrow. Today it will be over land.
NHC is expecting this to become a tropical cyclone tomorrow after reemerging over the gulf. In the mean time, lots of much needed rain for us in central florida.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Looking at sat. loops this a.m. ( both IR and WV ), this is so far certainly not looking tropcal, given the wrap around effect being caused by the upper low. That said, given time I see no way that a warm core reflection at the surface does not eventually occur. Question, as always continues to be when and where. More and more however I am coming to the conclusion that the models have been fairly impressive in their longer range ability to pick up some type of cyclongenesis event. Basically though, I am getting to the point of seeing some model concensus, and just determining that the time range is more often than not, a good deal farther away than what the models indicate. I too believe that perhaps a low level reflection may be occuring farther east than originally thought, and again later than anticipated as well.
Finally, in defense of StrTrackerMiami, the following was written by another post:
...I just want to see what a tropical depression looks like on my below-normal rain gauge in west central Florida. You are indeed crazy...I wish I had a time machine so I could send you to a trailer park in Florida City on August 24, 1992...you would never wishcast again....
Lets all keep in mind that this forum consists of those of us who range in academic and/or historic meteorlogical knowledge that ranges widely from bonified MET's to simply those who are weather enthusiasts. That said, all of us who participate by writing posts, or even those simply on the "sidelines" who read the posts, are ALL very interested in the weather and tropical cyclones, at the very least. For the sake of intellegent communication as well as moderation in the acceptance of others' views, let us at least respect one distinction between "shear fascination" and "wish-casting". For one to predict cyclogenesis and/or storm landfall, based upon a pure guess or "want" - this would be wish-casting. Someone who would wish to see the effects of a hurricane, is not wish-casting...., nor are they crazy ( death, injury, and destruction aside of course ). Whether or not moderators may wish to re-direct such opinion to another forum is their business, however the fascination of being able to actually witness the effects of a hurricane are what drive many to Meteorology as a hobby or a proffession. I for one, have chased hurricanes for years, and do so soley for the shear awe of that which I am able to witness ( and hopefully live to tell ). I am intellegent enough to know my limits of risk, and certainly do not wish any harm to anyone. My being at the point of landfall however, has no impact on the storms' impact on others, nor does one have anything to do with each other. Finally, I certainely have very mixed feelings regarding a dangerous landfall event where I live, but once again, I have no "powers" to impact such an event from happening.
So to this I can tell you, after Andrew, Charlie, Hugo, and on...., I do know the likes of the '26 storm. Do I wish it upon anyone else? Heck no. Whether or not I, or anyone elso would like to witness such an event ( safely ), is their business.
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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Looking at the 12Z Model Runs, it appears that some of the 12Z runs, especially the BAM Models and the CLIPER5, are initializing the system to far to the north and west. The 12Z discussion from the says that the center of circulation is "located...near 26N, 79 west." The models are initializing the system as far north as 27.5 N, 80 W. On this page, http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/, I tend to favor the solutions by the Late-Cycle track guidance and the Ensembles as it appears that these models are initializing the system about right. This puts landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the LA-TX Border, so basically Louisiana. Also, the latest HPC guidance is bring a low pressure to near Houston, TX by days 5 and 6. I favor a track more westerly than northerly. My prediction is for a landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday or Sunday. As for intensity, I would expect a strong tropical storm or minimal category one hurricane at landfall. GOM waters are warm (SST's in the mid 80s) and wind shear looks like it will remain relatively low.
My prediction in summary: landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday afternoon as a 70 MPH tropical storm.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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NRL has officially thrown up their "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert" for 93L. They have it moving toward the NNW...interesting. I have seen a lot of talk on here and other sites about the models and where they are going with this system. The models are useless at this point because all of them will be initialized wrong from the get go since 93L has still not developed yet. There is no telling where the actual center will be initialized once (if) it finally develops and gets classified. Today is more of a lull day because it will be over land. We won't really have any grasp of anything until tomorrow sometime...until then just take this time to make sure you have all things in order if you are anywhere along the gulf coast.
Shawn
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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93L is definitely a "Broad" area of low pressure, to say the least. Should be interesting to see where
the storm translates down to the surface, "if" it does. Looks as though Ingrid is not willing to give up
the fight. Moderate convection continues around what's left of Ingrid, and while the chances are probally
better for 93L to develop, I wouldn't write Ingrid off yet, as it should move into an area slightly more
favorable for developement in the near future. It's been kinda a wierd season. To follow a quote:
"2007: The Season With No Reason"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Per OUSHAWN text msg.... goes with the following graphic
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al932006.gif
msg follows:
WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201200Z.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Circulation is pretty evident about 50miles east of Cape Canaveral. Just after it moves inland...I expect a new center to form off Ft Myers and head slowly NW later Thursday. Conditions in the Gulf with the upperlow weakening gives this a 70% chance to develop. Watches could go into affect as early as Thurs evening.
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 19 2007 12:18 PM)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Scott,
I'm assuming you are not in agreement with JB on a Texas landfall then. Sounds like you are thinking more LA which would put us in a very nice position once again as we would be on the dry side and have gorgeous weather...I'm all for that.
Sorry, I guess thispost probably should have gone somewhere else but I'm not sure where so I posted it here.
Shawn
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