Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon has made the first turn back to the north... there down at about 1400ft and winds are right around 25 mph at surface and flight level....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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thing that this storm is missing and will miss just up until landfall is T-STORMS around a tight inner core. The circulation is there...but very broad....its going to take 24hrs to wrap up some but by then,....it should be nearing the coast...Still maybe a subtropical storm tomorrow.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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true dat... but i think there is more lightning showing up then i saw earlier this morning.... Recon is focused in on that low now
see attachment of flight path
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just going based on this latest flight path... it looks like they are really focused on that one area... two things.. this could mean to me.... a weak low is there... and or... there having a hard time closing it off?
Oh yeah by the way there last data i got, put them about 600ft above the GOM....  cool ride there!
see attachment
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Also look at close up vis... i see a sign that stroms may be trying to fire near center... at the following link... look above the the yellow Duepage... about an inch... see the low there... see storm flaring up on the SW side... of course there is shear there... but is storms near the center... another 12hrs of this and we may have something...
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT
115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE AIRCRAFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Recon is south of PC... at 5,000ft heading NW...
right after i posted... i took another look at recon.. they did a 180 and are almost back into the area where the low is at.... look like they went up and sampled the feeder band to the NW of the low... and are now back near the broad low...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 04:39 PM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Here is some visual ground reconnaisance from Plant City, Florida (about 15 miles east of Tampa)
We just had a rockin band of rain and wind come through that would easily be classified as a squall band if its winds were a bit stronger. Wish I had a wind gauge, but I don't. At least a half inch in about 30 minutes with LOTS of lightning and thunder. Lost power at my school at 5:30, (so I got home earlier than usual). Right now, the barometer here is about 29.77 in which is pretty low for here. Radar looks like there is another line building south of us, so we may be in for it again. WE may be in for the rain most of the night....at least so we hope. I would say from looking at the radar that we are not far from the center of circulation of this convection and at 29.77 pretty close to a low center as well. Should be an interesting 48 hours coming up!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Tampa Met Denis Philips said those of us in the Tampa area will be in and out of these bands for a while as the Low in the Gulf gets better organized.
A local weather station in Odessa (just inside the Pasco line north of Lutz) had winds gusts to 62 mph at 5:58 p.m. from this line moving north/northwest.
We are about to get it here in Spring Hill, already thundering a lot and getting dark to the south.
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Clocking in down here in Port Charlotte. We're running a bit higher on the pressure readings than up there in Plant City (I'm coming in at 29.85 or about 1010mb).
Really not the thinking behind my post however. The system may have it's shot to get closer to a subtropical something during tonight's diurnal max. One observation that I have made throughout the day is that the overall envelope...or gyre as I was calling it earlier, has been slowly contracting...So we may be getting closer to something here. During someof these contractions, you may have noticed some funny kinks and quirks in the visible satellite images and the overall radar representation of the circulation from the Tampa Bay Long Range (Link: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes )
Our best friend tonight will be the long range radar fromthe standpoint of tracking the organization. Shortwave satellelite will also be a helper after the sun goes down. That said, one final observation and possible caveat for development. I have noticed that as the overall contraction has taken place today...The broad circulation pattern is elongated...So as contraction is a plus, the elongation may also be a development inhibitor.
Final notes/thoughts. I'll go with the overall model solution. Pretty good agreement there. Iam sure you have all watched the models and compared overall movement as 93L has progressed. One overall problem I do have with the models is forward speed. The models seem to keep moving this thing along at a slow pace over the next 2 days. However, 93L really didn't move at all today and I would not be surprised if the overall solution is slower than what all the models are showing. Overall, that has been somewhat of a trend...
Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 06:29 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The 5:30 is crystal clear on this:
530 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
A FEW SQUALLS BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Looks like a very reasonable statement. Really, they probably could have gone either way this afternoon - start tracking 93 as an STD, or not. While it already loosely fits the definition of a subtropical depression, it would be a generous upgrade, for now.
Very glad to see that they mentioned the low centered near 33N 47W, as well. Another one currently attempting to acquire subtropical and/or tropical characteristics.
Finally, as many of us have been mentioning, the southern and/or western Caribbean is firing back up a bit, and is starting to have some occasional model support for development.
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Lowest pressure recorded by latest Recon. flight is 1006mb, with the center found slightly NE of the last flight. Nothing unexpected....
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just got in... and taking a look at the radar... seeing more "tropical" showers on the east side of the low flaring up... some up to the 20-30k foot range...Looks for sure alot of rain is heading my way! MUCH NEED RAIN in the Fla. panhandle... we STILL VERY DRY here in central panhandle all the way to the coast.... i would think if the rain thats over north part of Florida can wrap around to the west side of the low... we might be have something mid-morning.... agree with above post... i think the track is a little to far left on some of the models... at the start... but am inclined to stick with my AL/MS landfall... will post more over in forecast lounge later...
Notice a few models try to bring another area up from the Carb. in GOM right after this gets out of here.
**also there is pretty good rotation there to the SW of Lady Lake... with that cell... that has a tor warn on it** 0150z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 09:54 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Yeah that area in the carribean is what I been calling for a few days ago to develop tomorrow. Data right now shows a low pressure system in the low-mid levels near 14.9N and 82W moving N about 8mph. A weak ridge extends from Nicaragua east thru the system to the central carribean and south of 15-16N. The flow between the midlevel (subtropical low) to its N in the gulf and a ridge over the bahamas will take this NNW and into western cuba and the eastern gulf. This has a better potential to be a Tropical Depression by later Friday or probably when they fly a plane out on Saturday.(if the system develops).
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Right now things dont look to favorable down there....
NHC-
CONVECTION IS STRONGEST IN A PRONOUNCED
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W. NW TO WLY UPPER
FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW NW OF
PUERTO RICO...COVERS THE REGION E OF 80W. THIS FLOW IS VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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This storm had subtropical written all over it yesterday. May have been a mess, but this to me was the most impressive non tropical low i've been through. I have pictures of the floods here in Palm Coast (some did not come in too good).
Flood pictures...
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood8.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood9.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood1.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood3.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood5.jpg
Trees and powerlines went down from both gusty winds and heavy rains that saturated the grounds too much..
Flagler Beach had gusty winds from 45-50 mph.
I saw that subtropical looking swirl about 2-3 hours before it made landfall in Cape Canaveral.
As of now, the storm has gotten much better organized since this morning, I agree with the that a subtropical storm could form at any given time. Post Analysis may show this storm as a Unnamed Subtropical Storm. the radar is showing a much better system to.. deffinatly not a mess
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Well my Internet went down for several minutes... actually my Internet was working but DNS was not. Anyway, this thing is looking more and more like a tropical storm by the hour, with the low forming southeast of Apalachicola, I think. The low could be south of there, but there is definate rotation in that area. Based upon that position, I expect us panhandle folks to get drenched over tomorrow and Saturday, and I don't disagree with that landfall projection, Storm Hunter, although I think the AL/FL border is likely as well. My big issue is why the is so reluctant to call it a subtropical depression.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Hunter, you are a pretty lucky duck...and so has been the northern 2/3 of the state rainfall wise. Thise southern end has not seen a lot with this. I continue to sit only a 100 miles or so from the low level center (as seen in recon or in Shortwave imageryas being off the Charlotte/Sarasota County Line). Unfortunately...we've had a few showers, but seen la nada otherwise and we really need it too.
Looking at the overall picture tonight. I forecast absolutely NO subtropical and/or tropical development now. The Upper Level Low remains in the drivers seat as far as energy goes. That ULL has moved NW'erly toward the Florida Panhandle and is robbing the surface feature of all its chances. The heavy shower and thunderstorm activity remains entangled with it, as seen in the radar reflection...is all ULL activity. It is interrupting the surface low (That recon has been following), and the ULL and the surface feature are not stacked any longer. Therefore, unless the surface low re-forms under the ULL ( which may or may not occur) there is no chance of development on a subtropical level. If the Surface low does redevelop...it will have a very short amount of time to accomplish what the present low had started (The cold core-warm core transition). Likewise, if the upper level low peels off to the NW and leaves the current surface low behind (and in the area we have been tracking), that is not a fovorable circumstance. The Water Vapor imagery shows very hostile conditions approaching via very dry air and SW'erly winds. Under that influence, the surface low will likely fade away under those dynamics even if it gets leftbehind (WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ).
That said, I'll go all out on this one and say that the ULL will move intothe Alabama/Miss/Extreme Western Panhandle Area. Nothern Florida to Eastern Louisianna will get good rain...However, the surface reflection of this system will not develop into a tropical or subtropical system based on the current trends...
Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:29 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i think the answer for that HUGH is convection near the center and not linked to any type of front/trough? if if had just a little more storms... we have would have S-TS Jerry.... most of the lightning is well NE and NW of the low... although there have been about 3 very strong rotating thunderstorm i have been watching over there in central Florida... that's my concern for tomorrow... tornados... i am hoping that the rain over the aplach. bay will help stablize our atmopshere over here in the panhandle tomorrow... and that there is not a lot of dry air pulled in with the ULL passing by us... will see! The reason for the strong winds up here right now is due to the pressure gradient between us and the ridge to the north of us....with the surface low to the ESE.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:36 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Wow... I'm seeing a low-level circulation with convection wrapping around it on the Tallahassee radar.
I guess I'm blind. Looks like a dead ringer for a subtropical storm to me. The 5:30pm basically said the only thing lacking in calling it a subtropical depression/storm was convection, and that has built up tonight.
I'll buy that logic on the strong winds, Storm Hunter.... BUT... I have seen systems with a lot LESS convection near the center (or at all) that were maintained... so I don't understand why this system is not considered organized enough to be called STS Jerry (consistency!).
Edit: The 10:30pm is out. It says no significant change, yet goes on to say "but bands of heavy squalls are forming to the north of the center"... which I think is a significant change. The does say that tropical storm watches and warnings could be promptly required for the area on Friday... like that's not obvious. In fact, reading the , it's as if they EXPECT it to pull the trigger at any time.
Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:46 PM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I can understand how you might have that perception. I lived in Tallahassee for almost 10 Years and I am very familiar with the radar system there. For all trackers concerned...this is understandable, but it is an illusion.
Point A.) The area you are referencing is way too far from the radar site. It is viewing rain reflectivities that are higher in the atmosphere.
Point B.) For Back Up, here is the water Vapor Loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ). The circulation you are seeing is the result of the Upper Level Low, which has now peeled off from the stacked system and is moving toward the western Panhandle, Ala, Miss are.
Bottom line otherwise is that the showers and thunderstorms traversing the Florida Panhandle are part of the ULL, which has broken free of the surface low that probably/likely will not develop now. Had the two remain stacked, the overall picture/trend toward subtropical development would have seemed more likely.
To view the surface low that has had the potiential for development throughout the day, it is still in the basic area it has been all day, please view the following link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
The Low is approximately at 27.0N, 83.8W. This one could fade just as easily as any of the others...But evenif a new low forms under the ULL...Time is running out to finish what was started today. Either way, No Name, Subtropical Name, or No Name...the end result is the same. This is a rainmaker. That said, my bets are with an almost 0% chance of this getting a name.
Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM)
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