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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Invest 97L east of the windward islands....
      #78855 - Sun Sep 23 2007 07:36 AM

This area now is considered an invest per NRL as of a few hours ago....Looks very good on satelitte imagery and a TD is also possible here.

Lastest from the NHC @ 530am Outlook...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.


Lastest image from NRL



Models Here

Edited by Hurricane29 (Sun Sep 23 2007 07:37 AM)


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78857 - Sun Sep 23 2007 07:40 AM

I say a TD soon and i mean soon as recon goes in and i don't know when.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: punkyg]
      #78858 - Sun Sep 23 2007 07:51 AM

SSD just put a Floater on it...

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78863 - Sun Sep 23 2007 10:13 AM

This one isn't close to TD yet (nowhere near organized enough), it's not maintaining enough convection. Give it 2 day s or so, and it may change. The only thing that really makes it worthy of note now is the proximity to the windward islands.

This system is by no means is a sure bet for development. In fact, I'd say it probably won't form right now. If it does get into the Caribbean, shear is foretasted to be quite high. 96L further east has a better shot of being a depression than this right now.





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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: MikeC]
      #78870 - Sun Sep 23 2007 11:28 AM

In the last couple of visible frames, it looks like there is more of a low to mid level rotation which was not there previously. If it keeps pace with the ULL ahead and does not overtake it there might be something to this.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78880 - Sun Sep 23 2007 02:46 PM

There's a heck of a lot of low level convergence now taking place into the -approximate- region of the LLC. Additionally, some hints of some subtle banding features developing to the northwest, west, southwest, and southeast, most prominently to the northwest of the estimated center. Deeper convection lies outside of the LLC, but with this convergence, may soon coalesce about or right on top of it. This is an organizing Invest. Bet that NHC starts using stronger wording to describe it very soon, and also expect NRL to hoist a TCFA up, if this trend persists much longer.

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: cieldumort]
      #78891 - Sun Sep 23 2007 10:58 PM

This one, according to GFDL ,has the best chance of becoming Karen. It shows some land interaction with Hispanola by next Friday, but High Pressure dominates with 1018 MSLP and I think it will keep it on a Southerly trek after entering the Florida Straits. This can and may change somewhat as more data becomes available, but that's the way I'm seeing this for the next 5 days. I think it becomes a Tropical Depression in the next 24-48 hours and a TS not long thereafter. It looks pretty darn good on imagery tonight. Looks like it's getting it's act together. There's a pretty good looking wave at 10N30W tonight, too.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: TampaRand]
      #78893 - Mon Sep 24 2007 08:39 AM

This system won't develop today, there aren't many negative factors, it's mainly just not organized enough. For Karen, look elsewhere. But it could form into something later on, Wednesday, if at all.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: MikeC]
      #78899 - Mon Sep 24 2007 10:32 AM

Yes I agree...Karen will be out of 96L but this one 97L has potential for later this week and early next to be a nuasance.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: doug]
      #78944 - Tue Sep 25 2007 01:51 AM

Well if 97L is going to do anything it's got a ton of winds to cross first. I'm not holding my breath on this one, it's disorganized and just looking sickly on the satellites.

As you said, maybe down the road. but... wow I'd be shocked to see it do anything at all really.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Invest 97L east of the windward islands.... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #78956 - Tue Sep 25 2007 02:23 PM

I'm not sure its so much of a nothing...there is definitely a LLC in there. You can see it on the vis floater. It is also firing up some pretty good convection around where that center would be. Question is how close to Hispaniola it gets...but its looking much better than it did this morning

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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