Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Basically wanted to start this threat for invest 96L of the african coast which appears well on its way on becoming a tropical depression.....
NHC @ 530am Outlook...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Here's a couple of satelite images of the invest along with models....
Models Here
Edited by MikeC (Tue Sep 25 2007 06:54 AM)
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punkyg
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
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Its looking nice and is forming banding i say TD already. 
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Well it needs a huge burst of convection in order to be declared a TD.. it is a very well organized invest at the least. This MAY come to the USA but it has some forces it will go through before it can get stronger, shear and dry air.. should be at least a TS through the Atlantic, maybe when it reaches north of the Carribean, it may strengthen and possibly curve north as the has been predicting all along.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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From what I can tell this one isn't quite TD worthy yet given conditions and numbers, if it gets a little better organized then it might tomorrow or Tuesday. Still a bit too early to call that. I'm not buying the idea yet on it either.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Modeling seems to be quite bullish on this one with SHIPS bringing this up to 95kt in 120hrs. Its definitely holding its own right now
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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punkyg
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
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TCFA for 96L:
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231500Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 231500Z
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N 27.0W TO
8.0N 33.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED APPROXIMATLY 600NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIAMETLY AT 7 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010MB.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN
TO BE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR
CANCELLED BY 241500Z SEP 2007//
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Am having a little trouble getting good sat. views on 96L, and am curious is anyone else is experiencing difficulties with NOAA Sat. and Inforamation Services web site ( Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery )?? That aside, just went over to check out the Navy site, and their Sat. division is labeling 96L now as a 1007mb low. Unfortunately, their site has a series of jumbled views from different satellites, so not an easy smooth look, but certainly appearing as a well defined area.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Yeah, as you are already probably all too aware, they've been a little quirky this season (old images staying up far too long, floaters not looking in the right areas, etc.) Good luck with that!  lol Frustrating, I know.
As far as getting a good look at 96L... man, oh man, all I need to see is a shot like this ..
I'll just let the image do the talking ...
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BillD
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
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For Eastern Atlantic views, try one of the EU sites. Here is one I've used, it has a great loop of 96L. EUMETSAT
Click on the left center sector of the sectored graphic on the left.
Bill
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Cieldumort -
Are we actually witnessing a 2007 Cape Verde system........., WITH convection?!
It's beginning to look a lot, like Christma....., er
Hurricane Season ( sorry, but i'll cease from X-mas lycrics LOL )
Funny observation, but unlike so many forming systems this year, one characteristic we have not been lacking is vorticity. Now, banding......, thats another story altogether. 96L now has what appears to be 6 or 7 bands forming. Still lacking a , I cannot think that its only a short period of time before that.
Thanks for the EU Sat link, but am getting so spoiled, that if I am not able to get a 15-30 Sat. update, I have little interest. Reminds me of the old ( old, old, old ) days when I would wander down to the Hurricane Center in the midst of the season, sitting there biding my time waiting for the next McIdas sat pic to come up before the eclispse set in. Max Mayfield, then a forecaster would sarcastically ask if I had remembered to bring my pillow that evening!
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spinup
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
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ed's sunday morning low development potential rating of "3" for 96L has me a bit puzzled. ed?
Edited by spinup (Sun Sep 23 2007 08:39 PM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Spinup,
Though I cannot speak for Ed ( or anyone else here for that matter ), my guess on this a.m.'s low rating has more to do with the overall rule of persistance and pattern, rather than prevailing conditions. So often, will themselves put their "spin" on anticipated development based upon the recent history of developing systems. I have seen many a year where a few degrees of convection will continually spin up, and it is a given that atmospheric conditions will likely allow the next several will do the same. Likewise, in years where "blobs" traverse the Atlantic, with little indication of development, despite adequate conditions, would often become rather passive on anticipated development, until actual cyclogenesis starts to occur. Kinda like the 'ol addage, "show me the money".
So many waves come off the African coast each season, many practically looking like storms coming off land! Only to lose all their convection and practically any surface signature beyond an inverted V. Unlike the majority this year however, 96L has maintained its overall cloud structure, maintained convection, and vis. sat. show stratocum's streaming from thousands ( ok, so i'm a little bullish on this one ) - make that hundreds of miles in a slow rotation. Though a dry slot exists to the systems north, 96L comes complete with a very moist and large envelope ( not to mention power windows, dual exhaust, and AM/FM/DVD !).
My guess is that come tomm. a.m. vis. sat, Ed, , myself, and even my Uncle Fester will be singing 96L's praises ( well, I really don't have an Uncle Fester, but if I did he'd be jazzed over the look of this system.)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Note that I do not use a point system for probability of development - I believe that is something that Mike uses. My thoughts on 96L were outlined in my update to the Main Page late Saturday evening. I gave it a good chance for additional development then - and I still do. Larger systems take longer to consolidate, so this one probably still needs another day - but it will get there. Can't find a single reason why 96L shouldn't continue to develop.
ED
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The point/percentage thing is mine. It's about right for 48 hours from the time it posted, I'm thinking still it may not get going until tomorrow. I've done it before, where you see something and you are "oh my this probably will be a storm soon" when in reality it just isn't quite organized enough yet.
You have to take the location, (This is pretty far east and VERY far south for this far east), the general surrounds, the size, dry air, and other factors into consideration. So yeah 33% was a pretty good estimate for a 48 hour window. It looks like it won't make it. Maybe tomorrow.
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Robbissimo
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
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Quote:
You have to take the location, (This is pretty far east and VERY far south for this far east), the general surrounds, the size, dry air, and other factors into consideration.
First time poster here and certainly not a weather geek (no offense), but is it my imagination or do most of the waves coming off the African coast appear to be farther south of the norm this year? To be honest I haven't tracked every wave, but it looks like both 96L and 97L are farther south than what would be expected. Anything in particular that would be the driving force for that or just one of those anomolies that simply can't be well explained? 
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srquirrely
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 29
Loc: SARASOTA 27.27N 82.53W
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If you look at this visible loop you can see the shadow of 96L about 5degrees of longitude west of its cloud tops in the glint... an unusual sight, to me. Maybe you all have seen it many times, though.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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I will say this; convective banding features from south to west, consolidating, nice shape, looking like a distinct center rather than overall broad low such as yesterday. I believe we will see 96L , a depression by 5:00pm today.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Just looked at the RGB on this one and it is pretty well set up all ready...all that is missing is a quickscat confirmation IMO.
EDS
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doug
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spinup
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
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thank you to all the "pros" for your comments. i have great respect for sticking to the all of the available evidence in making forcast predictions. immediate appearances can indeed be deceptive.
but speaking of immediate appearances, WOW, this system is a thing of beauty, and only 25 knot winds (and with no one being injured).
see attached navy jpg
spinup
Edited by spinup (Mon Sep 24 2007 11:41 AM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Might as well call this a TD at best, it's also the best looking thing out there as of now.. I am confused on why they still have not upgraded it.. however, the quickscat missed the storm completely last nigth and this morning.. also missed 97L which looks disorganized. 96L deserves a classification immediatly!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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