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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Tropical Storm Karen analysis
      #78950 - Tue Sep 25 2007 11:25 AM

Tropical Storm Karen has rapidly formed from TD12 last night. Winds are up to 40 mph and pressure has dropped to 1005 MLB.
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/karen1.jpg
Karen has some interesting paths in the near future.. the GFS is the most confusing one of them all in my opinion. Here, the GFS shows a strong ridge of high pressure yet, the storm still does not trun westward, it actually shows Karen breaking through this strong ridge in 204 hours from now.. I doubt this will happen, though it is possible.
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/gfsmodel.jpg

The UKMET shows a reasonable solution.. strong ridge, if the model were to continue, it would take sort of a track like this.
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/ukmetmodel.jpg

The NOGAPS is the best of them all, clearly shows a strong trough of low pressure (cold front).. completely turns Karen north, then out to sea, which would refer to this as a fish storm.
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/nogapsmodel.jpg

After looking at all these models, including the GFDL and HRMF, feel that this trough of low pressure will be strong enough to curve it north, maybe vear it west for a bit, then back north and out to sea but I am only 22% confident on this 1st run of Tropical Storm Karen.
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/karenforecast1.jpg

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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