Bloodstar
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Looking at the radar and sat loops, it appears that the LLC is transitioning over to the east coast of Florida and the Key West LLC is falling apart. Bears watching as a jump of the LLC could increase the odds of something forming.
At the risk of saying something obvious, it seems there was a big ole switch flipped somewhere and now everything that wouldn't develop a month ago, is finding some sort of traction. (I'm not saying the season wasn't active before, but systems are developing in spite of relatively hostile conditions when they weren't before).
Karen is probably a hurricane now, still tracking WNW, and nothing is out there to indicate the has the storm wrong. it's still worth keeping a slight eye on in case the weakness doesn't develop as well as predicted and a more westerly motion is generated.
TD13 seems to have weakened slightly, but is now starting to regroup and should make it to tropical storm force. No reason to think the storm won't head WSW in the long run.
The waves in the far east, can look as good as they want, but until they get some longitude, on them, I'm not worried about any development.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Hunter
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See what your talking about on the MIA radar... looks like that was the mid-upper low i saw on sats this morning... its moving to the NE. I agree that the Key west low may be weakening... there is strong shear about to come over the top of that surface low... thats drifiting to the wsw... the mid-upper low looks like its coming down to the surface just south of Miami is moving with that convection, to the NE. Checking the surface obs. down there.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 26 2007 07:34 PM)
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flnelson
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The Miami radar is now showing a distinct swirl off the south-east tip of the penninsula and what appears to be some convection bands. It definitly looks like its trying to get more organized.
Its definitly going to be a soggy night here in Palm Beach county as the large mass of convection comes ashore,
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Fletch
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Quote:
The Miami radar is now showing a distinct swirl off the south-east tip of the penninsula and what appears to be some convection bands. It definitly looks like its trying to get more organized.
Its definitly going to be a soggy night here in Palm Beach county as the large mass of convection comes ashore,
Actually I think most of the rain we've been getting in South Florida is over for the day. The system is pulling out to the NE and the dry air can be seen moving in on the water vapor loop.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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StrmTrckrMiami
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The storm is certainly gone. We had been getting torential rain for two days here in Cutler Ridge, Miami and now it has stopped and cleared up. The sun is now shining. I definatly have missed it the past few days.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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cieldumort
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Looks like Karen's depth has possibly allowed her to get tugged farther to the north than both forecast and recently analyzed. On conventional satellite, especially using the FT & RB enhancements, it is possible to discern what may be that incipient eye that keeps trying to form throughout the day today, up around a full lat north of where she should be based on the most recent extrap and official forecast. This conclusion is backed up further by the JSL, which shows banding features cyclonically curved around this, what is quite possibly the actual COC.
With recon closing in, we should have this question answered at least somewhat definitively shortly here tonight.
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craigm
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Regarding Karen--Not sure if anyone has noticed this but since the 1800Z yesterday, models have been trending back towards the west with a disturbing hook to the left with the and the AVN alias (GFS) out about 96-120 hrs. Must be picking up less weakness in the ridge. Next few runs will be interesting.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Storm Hunter
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Quote:
Regarding Karen--Not sure if anyone has noticed this but since the 1800Z yesterday, models have been trending back towards the west with a disturbing hook to the left with the and the AVN alias (GFS) out about 96-120 hrs. Must be picking up less weakness in the ridge. Next few runs will be interesting.
I don't think anyone has said it publicly, but it appears more and more that the low pressure trough will bypass before Karen can get caught and turned north and out to sea... and we know what is follows a low pressure,..... High pressure/ridge to build in over the north atlantic... which, yep would mean a westward track until the next trough... WHICH is way too far out to forecast, timing, location... Karen will need watching... and will see what the upper level winds do to her in a few days, and if and how much she may get beaten...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 27 2007 12:36 AM)
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Lee-Delray
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Karen, if she survives is still almost 10 days away from either the East Coast or Bermuda; a lot can and will happen by then. We'll have plenty of time to watch.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KWBC 270017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/0000Z
B. 12 DEG 56 MIN N
44 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3088 M
D. 62 KT
E. 062 DEG 25 NM
F. 151 DEG 68 KT
G. 053 DEG 31 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 11 C/3059 M
J. 15 C/3058 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0112A KAREN OB 08 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 2350Z
MAX SFMR WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 2351Z
SLP FROM DROPSONDE
Temperature / dewpoint at 997mb: 27C / 26.2C
Temperature / dewpoint at 987mb: 26.2C / 25.8C
Temperature / dewpoint at 928mb: 22.6C / 22.6C
Temperature / dewpoint at 858mb: 22C / 17.3C
Temperature / dewpoint at 696mb: 15.8C / 10C
Karen appears to be doing quite well in the EYE department.
22C air temperature at nearly 5000 ft above sea level. That's probably a Bad sign... hurricane in the making.
The above temperatures were from an EYE dropsonde. Observation 10.
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 27 2007 01:03 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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wow, FORECASTER BLAKE in the Tropical Discussion was excellent!!! New forecaster on duty... great explanation... i saw the NOAA data... and was too interested in some of the obs.. now i have some what of a clear picture! Blake's discussion is almost that of Stacy Stewart who is over sea's right now, called to active duty in Iraq. Think we weather folks will enjoy blakes discussion more often!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
307 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 (edited~danielw)
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 29 2007 - 12Z WED OCT 03 2007
...TROPICS...
ONE DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VCNTY OF SRN FL WILL
GET CAUGHT UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE DAYS. HURCN KAREN
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NW TRACK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE
ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OR
DEPRESSION NEAR THE BAHAMAS/PUERTO RICO THAT MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. PLEASE CONSULT TPC BULLETINS FOR
MORE INFO ON THESE SYS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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cieldumort
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Here Here on the Blake descriptions! Some of the best out of in the last discussions for both Karen & 13L, IMHO.
Does look like we might, sort of, have Karen getting the official bump now, regardless, and won't have to wait for the reanalysis to include the upgrade. To quote Blake for the benefit of others coming into this thread without a reference point, here is a partial quote from the 11PM Karen discussion:
Quote:
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION
THIS EVENING AND HAS FOUND AN UNUSUAL WIND STRUCTURE WITH KAREN.
SFMR DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH
ONE PEAK IN SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 105 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND
ANOTHER ONE AT A MORE TYPICAL DISTANCE. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE AND
SFMR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
Karen-
NRL: "12LKAREN.65kts-995mb-128N-446W"
CIMSS: "Hurricane 12L"
In the end, however, as Blake states, Karen may not be able to attain hurricane strength again in the face of ongoing and upcoming shear.
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Storm Surfer
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Here at Palm Beach County Fire Station 68 in Lake Park ,I saw the rocket launch this morning with beautiful clear skies then watched on the visible Florida loop a couple hours later a low spinning south through the PBC . Pretty neat to see it on the computer and witness it with your own eyes. Dark low clouds with some very light rain . and now its Beautiful againl!!
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Mercy before self sacrafice
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craigm
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Am I reading this shear analysis correctly? Karen is moving into a 40-50 knot shear zone all the way to Puerto Rico (if she heads that way). This is't the 'Season with no reason' its the season of bad a#% shear!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF
btw- the 12Z run of the UKMET is showing strong ridge again, probably reflecting how weak Karen will be by then.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Thu Sep 27 2007 05:20 PM)
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allan
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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TD13 has rapidly intesified to Tropical Storm Lorenzo with 60 mph. winds. Amazing, could beat our humble Humberto in the fastest growing storm in history! Karen is blowing more convection near the center but as shear continues, that should be blown away from it later. "As the models turn" The is back to a westward movement, the UKMET well... is probably out to lunch this afteroon as it shows Karen diving south to the Windwards. The is possible, yet scary. I have yet to see the HWRMF, interesting models this afternoon, deffinatly more spread out then before, If it strengthens, it heads north then west.. If it keeps up the weakening, it heads west-northwest then west as the high builds in. Lorenzo is one fasinating storm and may reach Hurricane strength before making landfall tonight.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
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13L is now Tropical Storm Lorenzo. Winds are at 60 MPH. will issue a special advisory shortly.
(NHC Lorenzo links)
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/18:19:00Z
B. 20 deg 29 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1449 m
D. 69 kt
E. 161 deg 11 nm
F. 220 deg 052 kt
G. 141 deg 020 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. NA C/ 1519 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT SW QUAD 17:31:30 Z
I wonder if they'll upgrade it to a hurricane. It's trying really hard. Be a bit of a shocker to see it upgraded, particularly with the sheared look. Still Drifting south West and nothing to really push it a long faster.
Karen is trending to the left of Tropical Forecast point, again, not a surprise with the current state of the system. Still looks like a tropical Storm, vigorous LLC, and it may slip south of the worst shear.
Right now the models are starting to trend west with Karen, but as has been mentioned here many a time, wait for consistent model runs before taking any serious stock in them.
Right now the main concern is what Lorenzo will do to the Mexican coast, it may be a bit of a shocker to people if they hadn't been preparing for potentially rapidly developing storm (pressure appears to be dropping fairly rapidly, New Recon Ob found a pressure at 1000mb, a 2mb drop per hour the last few hours).
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Steve H1
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Interestingly, the 12Z Euro brings Karen near Miami as a powerful hurricane! That is 10 days out though, so take it with a grain of salt. But its continuing a trend, and currently she is rebuilding convection, perhaps enough to survive the shear.
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Ed in Va
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Lorenzo looks like another Humberto, with rapid development right before landfall.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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