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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Karen scenarios
      #78983 - Wed Sep 26 2007 09:49 AM

Tropical Storm Karen is gaining strength in the Central Atlantic, the track is still uncertain on where she will head after reaching 50W.There are 2 scenarios that could possibly play out, one of them is starting to get more model support today.
Scenario 1
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/karenscenario1.jpg

Scenario 1 is the most climatogical track, (also what I call the 2006 track). It is that time of the year where cold fronts rush in and out and stops anything tropical from getting further, however we are in a La Nina and that I believe cuts down the troughiness a bit. Bermuda may have a slight risk of a hit if this turns out to happen. Models HWRMF, BAMD, BAMM, GFS, and the NOGAPS support this idea

Scenario 2
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/karenscenario2.jpg

Scenario 2 still remains to be seen, it could actually happen. The high pressure sets up quicker and stronger to keep Karen from moving northeast. This is a typical August scenario if a storm were to come from here. If this scenario plays out, folks in Florida up to Virginia would need to watch this closely. Models UKMET, BAMS, CMC, and even the 06Z GFDL has started to hint on more of a westward movement.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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