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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Karen Lounge
      #78854 - Sun Sep 23 2007 07:31 AM

Basically wanted to start this threat for invest 96L of the african coast which appears well on its way on becoming a tropical depression.....

NHC @ 530am Outlook...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


Here's a couple of satelite images of the invest along with models....



Models Here

Edited by MikeC (Tue Sep 25 2007 06:54 AM)


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Invest 96l of the african coast.... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78856 - Sun Sep 23 2007 07:37 AM

Its looking nice and is forming banding i say TD already.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Invest 96l of the african coast.... [Re: punkyg]
      #78859 - Sun Sep 23 2007 09:47 AM

Well it needs a huge burst of convection in order to be declared a TD.. it is a very well organized invest at the least. This MAY come to the USA but it has some forces it will go through before it can get stronger, shear and dry air.. should be at least a TS through the Atlantic, maybe when it reaches north of the Carribean, it may strengthen and possibly curve north as the GFS has been predicting all along.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Invest 96L of the african coast.... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78861 - Sun Sep 23 2007 10:09 AM

From what I can tell this one isn't quite TD worthy yet given conditions and Dvorak numbers, if it gets a little better organized then it might tomorrow or Tuesday. Still a bit too early to call that. I'm not buying the GFS idea yet on it either.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Invest 96L of the african coast.... [Re: MikeC]
      #78869 - Sun Sep 23 2007 11:26 AM

Modeling seems to be quite bullish on this one with SHIPS bringing this up to 95kt in 120hrs. Its definitely holding its own right now

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Invest 96L of the african coast.... [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78872 - Sun Sep 23 2007 11:53 AM


TCFA for 96L:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231500Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 231500Z
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N 27.0W TO
8.0N 33.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED APPROXIMATLY 600NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIAMETLY AT 7 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010MB.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN
TO BE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR
CANCELLED BY 241500Z SEP 2007//


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78878 - Sun Sep 23 2007 01:39 PM

Am having a little trouble getting good sat. views on 96L, and am curious is anyone else is experiencing difficulties with NOAA Sat. and Inforamation Services web site ( Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery )?? That aside, just went over to check out the Navy site, and their Sat. division is labeling 96L now as a 1007mb low. Unfortunately, their site has a series of jumbled views from different satellites, so not an easy smooth look, but certainly appearing as a well defined area.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: weathernet]
      #78879 - Sun Sep 23 2007 02:40 PM

Yeah, as you are already probably all too aware, they've been a little quirky this season (old images staying up far too long, floaters not looking in the right areas, etc.) Good luck with that! lol Frustrating, I know.

As far as getting a good look at 96L... man, oh man, all I need to see is a shot like this ..

I'll just let the image do the talking ...



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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: weathernet]
      #78881 - Sun Sep 23 2007 04:48 PM

For Eastern Atlantic views, try one of the EU sites. Here is one I've used, it has a great loop of 96L. EUMETSAT

Click on the left center sector of the sectored graphic on the left.

Bill


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: cieldumort]
      #78882 - Sun Sep 23 2007 05:42 PM

Cieldumort -

Are we actually witnessing a 2007 Cape Verde system........., WITH convection?!

It's beginning to look a lot, like Christma....., er
Hurricane Season ( sorry, but i'll cease from X-mas lycrics LOL )

Funny observation, but unlike so many forming systems this year, one characteristic we have not been lacking is vorticity. Now, banding......, thats another story altogether. 96L now has what appears to be 6 or 7 bands forming. Still lacking a CDO, I cannot think that its only a short period of time before that.

Thanks for the EU Sat link, but am getting so spoiled, that if I am not able to get a 15-30 Sat. update, I have little interest. Reminds me of the old ( old, old, old ) days when I would wander down to the Hurricane Center in the midst of the season, sitting there biding my time waiting for the next McIdas sat pic to come up before the eclispse set in. Max Mayfield, then a forecaster would sarcastically ask if I had remembered to bring my pillow that evening!


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spinup
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78885 - Sun Sep 23 2007 08:28 PM

ed's sunday morning low development potential rating of "3" for 96L has me a bit puzzled. ed?

Edited by spinup (Sun Sep 23 2007 08:39 PM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: spinup]
      #78887 - Sun Sep 23 2007 09:36 PM

Spinup,

Though I cannot speak for Ed ( or anyone else here for that matter ), my guess on this a.m.'s low rating has more to do with the overall rule of persistance and pattern, rather than prevailing conditions. So often, NHC will themselves put their "spin" on anticipated development based upon the recent history of developing systems. I have seen many a year where a few degrees of convection will continually spin up, and it is a given that atmospheric conditions will likely allow the next several will do the same. Likewise, in years where "blobs" traverse the Atlantic, with little indication of development, despite adequate conditions, NHC would often become rather passive on anticipated development, until actual cyclogenesis starts to occur. Kinda like the 'ol addage, "show me the money".

So many waves come off the African coast each season, many practically looking like storms coming off land! Only to lose all their convection and practically any surface signature beyond an inverted V. Unlike the majority this year however, 96L has maintained its overall cloud structure, maintained convection, and vis. sat. show stratocum's streaming from thousands ( ok, so i'm a little bullish on this one ) - make that hundreds of miles in a slow rotation. Though a dry slot exists to the systems north, 96L comes complete with a very moist and large envelope ( not to mention power windows, dual exhaust, and AM/FM/DVD !).

My guess is that come tomm. a.m. vis. sat, Ed, NHC, myself, and even my Uncle Fester will be singing 96L's praises ( well, I really don't have an Uncle Fester, but if I did he'd be jazzed over the look of this system.)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Clarification [Re: weathernet]
      #78890 - Sun Sep 23 2007 10:53 PM

Note that I do not use a point system for probability of development - I believe that is something that Mike uses. My thoughts on 96L were outlined in my update to the Main Page late Saturday evening. I gave it a good chance for additional development then - and I still do. Larger systems take longer to consolidate, so this one probably still needs another day - but it will get there. Can't find a single reason why 96L shouldn't continue to develop.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Clarification [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #78892 - Mon Sep 24 2007 08:38 AM

The point/percentage thing is mine. It's about right for 48 hours from the time it posted, I'm thinking still it may not get going until tomorrow. I've done it before, where you see something and you are "oh my this probably will be a storm soon" when in reality it just isn't quite organized enough yet.

You have to take the location, (This is pretty far east and VERY far south for this far east), the general surrounds, the size, dry air, and other factors into consideration. So yeah 33% was a pretty good estimate for a 48 hour window. It looks like it won't make it. Maybe tomorrow.


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Robbissimo
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Re: Clarification [Re: MikeC]
      #78895 - Mon Sep 24 2007 08:57 AM

Quote:

You have to take the location, (This is pretty far east and VERY far south for this far east), the general surrounds, the size, dry air, and other factors into consideration.




First time poster here and certainly not a weather geek (no offense), but is it my imagination or do most of the waves coming off the African coast appear to be farther south of the norm this year? To be honest I haven't tracked every wave, but it looks like both 96L and 97L are farther south than what would be expected. Anything in particular that would be the driving force for that or just one of those anomolies that simply can't be well explained?


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srquirrely
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: SARASOTA 27.27N 82.53W
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: weathernet]
      #78896 - Mon Sep 24 2007 09:09 AM

If you look at this visible loop you can see the shadow of 96L about 5degrees of longitude west of its cloud tops in the glint... an unusual sight, to me. Maybe you all have seen it many times, though.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: srquirrely]
      #78897 - Mon Sep 24 2007 09:43 AM

I will say this; convective banding features from south to west, consolidating, nice shape, looking like a distinct center rather than overall broad low such as yesterday. I believe we will see 96L , a depression by 5:00pm today.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: weathernet]
      #78900 - Mon Sep 24 2007 10:39 AM

Just looked at the RGB on this one and it is pretty well set up all ready...all that is missing is a quickscat confirmation IMO.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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spinup
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: doug]
      #78902 - Mon Sep 24 2007 11:17 AM Attachment (340 downloads)

thank you to all the "pros" for your comments. i have great respect for sticking to the all of the available evidence in making forcast predictions. immediate appearances can indeed be deceptive.

but speaking of immediate appearances, WOW, this system is a thing of beauty, and only 25 knot winds (and with no one being injured).

see attached navy jpg

spinup



Edited by spinup (Mon Sep 24 2007 11:41 AM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: spinup]
      #78907 - Mon Sep 24 2007 12:18 PM

Might as well call this a TD at best, it's also the best looking thing out there as of now.. I am confused on why they still have not upgraded it.. however, the quickscat missed the storm completely last nigth and this morning.. also missed 97L which looks disorganized. 96L deserves a classification immediatly!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast.... [Re: spinup]
      #78911 - Mon Sep 24 2007 01:01 PM

To me it don't look like a tropical depression any more looks like a tropical storm now.
do you agree?


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: punkyg]
      #78915 - Mon Sep 24 2007 02:12 PM

From every view and parameter yet imagine if they get a good quikscat they may upgrade

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

Beautiful spin, sure looks like a tight circulation there.. looks can be deceiving on sat imagery but
this sure looks like the real thing

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: LoisCane]
      #78916 - Mon Sep 24 2007 02:28 PM

I'm still thinking tomorrow based on water vapor. (It's still just too broad a system at the moment and not a depression) It still could happen later tonight, but 5, probably not. Most likely tomorrow if it persists.

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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: MikeC]
      #78919 - Mon Sep 24 2007 02:42 PM

Looks like we have a race for the K name. I'm giving the nod to this storm. It is really starting to consolidate, and with the blow up of convection happening in the latest sat pics. I think we have an upgrade by 5pm advisory, skipping the TD status. Being that is so far south, wondering if the recurve might happen a little sooner than expected? This storm looks to be huge. I am really hoping for a fish spinner.

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: M.A.]
      #78926 - Mon Sep 24 2007 05:30 PM

Well, I said it before and will say it again......, I would've expected NHC to have classified 96L as a Depression at 5:00pm. Very surprised they have not. Then again, am finding it slightly odd that the 5:00 T.D.O. is not out yet, and could've been delayed while putting together a 5:00pm Discussion first on a TD, but not so far anyway. Realizing of course that the Scat. pass only came up with 25 knots, but am seeing tight rotation, banding features, feeder like "tap" root well to the southwest feeding it further with some low level 93 octane. Oh yeah, and now a small CDO over what appears to be the center?? Call me crazy, but I see a tropical depression ( ok, rant over......I feel better now LOL )

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: weathernet]
      #78927 - Mon Sep 24 2007 07:13 PM

96L still isn't a depression, convection is firing toward the left center, though, and if it blossoms there over the next few hours it could hit the stride by 11PM, but chance for development tonight is about 40%. Don't let the size and shape fool you, this isn't quite a depression yet, but it is setting itself up for it.

This is coming from Dvorak data and the water vapor loops, where it's pretty obvious it isn't a depression yet.

Again, Tomorrow is still a safe bet for a depression or storm. Tonight is only possible if the burst along the western part of the system persists a few hours.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: LoisCane]
      #78928 - Mon Sep 24 2007 07:37 PM

IMHO, an upgrade of 96 to TD by 11pm is all but baked in the cake. 96L has been developing a burst of deep convection right about its mean center.. additionally, banding features look to be fending off any attempts for dry air to really infiltrate.

TCFAs are now also up on 94L and 97L.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: cieldumort]
      #78930 - Mon Sep 24 2007 08:47 PM

96 just picked up a T2.5 at 2345 from SSD.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: cieldumort]
      #78931 - Mon Sep 24 2007 08:52 PM

Yep, it hit the mark, tonight it is.

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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: MikeC]
      #78932 - Mon Sep 24 2007 09:00 PM

Yay i knew this would be a TD before 94L which now a TDi think. mmmm MikeC you said tomorrow it would develop. well looky its here!

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least [Re: MikeC]
      #78933 - Mon Sep 24 2007 10:10 PM

Well, as we wait for the official word on the new far eastern Atlantic, just a few thoughts on its short term future. I believe the current shear currently being encountered, will lighten up ( as indicated by GFS 12-18 hr. 200mb from 18Z ). That said, and given a continued upswing of development of its CDO, I anticipate it'll take all of tommorrow, along with quickscat data to verify but perhaps late tommorow to tomm. eve., and should likely have Karen in place. Given it's ( or "her" ) size, rather than entirely be controlled by its environment, this looks to be one of those beasties, that tend to change the environment around it ( thus being less susceptable to light shear once vertically stacked ). Also, now that we will have a true vortex to follow, I think we'll see much more conformity along the various models on motion, especially evident starting with 0600Z and the a.m. 12Z data. Finally, given this systems size, along with a more diffinative motion, I am now more apt to believe that the models will start trending more westward than previous runs. Speculation beyond that, will certainly take some more analysis than I care to take a stab at for the moment.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #78935 - Mon Sep 24 2007 11:42 PM

Current tropical systems may be found in the 2007 News Talkbacks.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #79005 - Wed Sep 26 2007 02:30 PM

The GFDL has now shifted to westward mode! Karen is a storm to watch, however, it appears to me that she may be a Hurricane a bit later then I thought this morning as shear is affecting the outflow of the storm. This is certainly a busy week in the tropics!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: allan]
      #79006 - Wed Sep 26 2007 02:50 PM

Couple of things before I get emails about Allan's post. Karen is holding just below hurricane strength. The chances of Karen not affecting land are about 90%. And I'm seriously doubting Karen will hold together all that long either, it may remain strong for a few days, but it will start to hit some serious shear down the road which will likely tear it apart. Track wise, Karen is to the right (north) of the projected NHC track (and the GFDL) now, so if anything it would move further east/north.

This is the forecast lounge, and people can post here without too much worry, but I have to remind people here that the chances of Karen affecting land are so minimal that it's not worth alarming anyone. It's important to take the approach of why something won't affect land or strengthen then why, it's when those reasons start to drop out you start to be concerned. And right now the chances of something wild like Karen moving west are so vastly outnumbered by the reasons it would not that there is no point in creating "storm fatigue" with folks with yet another storm that doesn't do much.

The front page has a few links at the bottom that have places that like to hype up everything if you are looking for that, but I believe doing so here is counter productive.

Note that I don't mean not watch Karen or discuss things, but I think casually mentioning to someone who isn't into tracking storms "Watch out for Karen! LoL!" is more than a little misleading.


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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #79019 - Wed Sep 26 2007 06:57 PM

one thing I have noticed over the last 2 days the models have been gradually shifting to the west a little bit on each run. I'm not saying yet that Karen is going to make a US landfall, but she is one we had better keep our eye on so she doesn't surprise us

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: jbmusic]
      #79029 - Thu Sep 27 2007 01:05 AM

I'm looking for this storm to go no farther west than 60-65W at best. It's going to encounter some very strong shear and it all depends on how much the ridging weakens and what the trough, that I think is going to split somewhat, turns it. I think it's going to get turned pretty distinctly northward at some point. Also, realistically, once it passes 30N and HAS NOT passed 60W, there is like ZERO chance of a US hit, regardless of the ridging-it will simply start to dissipate. I don't know of any historical data that has a storm that north and that east, this time of the year, suddenly making a westward turn. This system is going be real nicked up by westerly shear that will likely be 15-20kts and maybe some 30kt, thrown in, as well.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: Hurricane29]
      #79034 - Thu Sep 27 2007 01:02 PM

Actually all the models are forecast Karen to restrengthen into a Hurricane in a few days.. the GFS may scare northerners lol, of course it's long range and anyting can happen. The GFS shows Karen restrengthening into a category 2-3 storm once the high is on the top, it shows it emerging with a low coming from Canada which would create something like a Perfect Storm setup somewhere in a bit over 200 hours.. Anyways, can't wait for the new GFDL and HWRMF to come out, that would be interesting. These models are now starting to hint that since shear came in early then predicted, it will weaken early then it was predicted to. Once Karen is under that high, shear will probably be down to 5-15 knots. It's all something to watch, my local met on channel 6 says he is watching it very closely for us here in Central Florida, he believes now that it is weakening a bit, it will miss the trough and get under that high that is forecast to build in. Interesting stuff....

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Thu Sep 27 2007 01:17 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 253
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: TampaRand]
      #79038 - Thu Sep 27 2007 03:49 PM

Karen is being VERY seriously sheared right now. Center of circulation has moved out from under the convection although new convection IS firing to the north and east of the center. Right hand side looks completely exposed on the IR loop. Don't see how this storm is going to hold together in that type of environment. Looks like the models have the shear pegged right on....HOWEVER...the COC still appears to be moving more west than north and has not begun to turn yet....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Thu Sep 27 2007 03:52 PM)


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Cat 5orBust
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #79041 - Thu Sep 27 2007 04:25 PM

i brought up a point last year about the local meteorologists on t.v. in south florida and how they present information regarding storms. i have to bring it up once again because it bothers me a little bit in how they provide the information. with regards to karen, when this developed several days ago each met posted the cone on tv and all said that it will turn out in the atlantic and not be a threat to any land which based on the information at that time was true. today we have several of the reliable models with yet another shift to the west with the ECMWF, ukmet, and CMC among others bringing what as of today looks like a pretty strong hurricane towards south florida. now obviously these can change drastically over the next week as well and that is IF karen even survives the shear. my beef with the mets is that when you have a storm so far out and litereally 2 weeks away at the time karen was born, dont come out and say it will not pose any threat to florida or any landmass. we all know that patterns change all the time and you cant base any future forecast on something so far away. why cant the mets just say we have plenty of time to watch it to see if it will eventually pose a threat somewhere? instead they all throw up the first cone and they see it recurving and say it is no threat. that just doesnt seem to be responisble, yet they all do it. now as the last few days have gone on they have said the same thing regarding possibly a shift further west. i just wish they would give a storm time before they start talking about conclusions which no one has answers to so far in advance....as far as karen goes, in my opinion if she can hold it together somewhat and withstand the high shear for the next couple days then its something everyone needs to watch because if that high builds in strong like the models are now saying, this will be a potential threat for someone. if she can survive into the sunday/monday time frame then we will have something to give serious watch time to over the next week.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #79042 - Thu Sep 27 2007 04:29 PM

another reminder, Karen's chances for going out to sea remain much much higher than land, even with the crazy long range models (Aka EURO), mainly crazy because of the shear.

We have time to watch this, but right now I still think it will go out to sea or be so torn up that it won't recover. If this changes, I'll write something up about it. Don't hold your breath for that, though.

All recon for the system has been canceled too. Bermuda may want to watch it more than anyone else.







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WeatherNut
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #79047 - Thu Sep 27 2007 09:05 PM

I hate to disagree and I am not wishcasting by any means. The models are just that...models, but they are coming into agreement late in the period and that not only is there a turn west, but now a WSW component on the GFS and UKMET. This is something that should not be dismissed. The answer is we just dont know, but when the models start lining up, they are perhaps seeing something we might be missing. Dont anyone let their guard down on this one. Dont panic by any means this far out...just stay tuned to this and other avenues of information as they become available. Smart people stay informed and then act appropriately...ok, I'm done with the soapbox...someone elses turn. Here is a link to the latest model run if its not listed here...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200712_model.html

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #79049 - Fri Sep 28 2007 12:02 AM

Here's my thought if it moves more westward like a few of those models were suggesting, if it does so it may be a much more sheared system, in fact it may cease to be Karen, if it does the remains could slip further westward and then could potentially form into something else. Ie, dissipating then reforming.

Ie, the stronger Karen remains the further north it will go, if it remains weak or falls apart it would likely slip further west. I do think the models are letting go of shear too early.

Chances are still pretty high this misses land altogether, and that is good news.


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saluki
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to be hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #79050 - Fri Sep 28 2007 01:01 AM

When Karen formed as far east as it did, I would have said the chances of it being a worry for anyone other than shipping interests and sea creatures to be 1 in 100. Now, based on its survival to this point and the ridging outlook for next week, I would say more like 1 in 10. It should be interesting to see what Karen looks like by Monday after it's encountered a few days of brutal shear.

Edited by saluki (Fri Sep 28 2007 01:18 AM)


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allan
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall [Re: Hurricane29]
      #79066 - Sat Sep 29 2007 07:31 AM

Karen is yet again a naked swirl on the latest visible.. I expect regeneration as it's been happening everyday with this storm. Most models are back to restrengthening it at the end of the runs and missing this so called trough that few models are developing to curve it. We'll see what happens with Karen, this weekend is when we should find out the fate or the pace of karen.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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allan
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall [Re: allan]
      #79070 - Sat Sep 29 2007 05:14 PM

Last advisory is just now issued on Karen, yet we have NOT seen the last of it as shear has weakened from 50 knots to 25-30 knots today. I agree with them, no circulation now, but most models believe Karen is going to make a huge comeback in about 2 to 3 days, again, we'll see.. models can be models, I do see conditions improving by then. Melissa should pose no threat to us, a very slight chance it will pose a threat to Bermuda, anythings possible, always got to remember that. That area in the Bahamas, still do not believe it will pull whatever Karen has left to the north, but again, we'll see. Until I see total dissipation (no convection) with Karen, I will continue my daily runs with it and will continue to moniter for regeneration in a few days.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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TampaRand
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall [Re: allan]
      #79071 - Sat Sep 29 2007 06:46 PM

Karen is dead and will be a remnant low in 24 hours, but NHC is leaving some wiggle room on the numerical models. It is a very elongated mess right now and I can see why they are issuing the last advisory on it. She's beat like a rented mule.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Rasvar
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Is Karen gone for good? [Re: TampaRand]
      #79112 - Mon Oct 01 2007 07:43 PM

I was looking at the Canadian 12Z run at the FSU site. Looks like it might have been hitting some good Canadian beers. Check out the 144 hour mark. Looks like it wants to revive Karen and blast Key West.

--------------------
Jim


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weathernet
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Re: Is Karen gone for good? [Re: Rasvar]
      #79116 - Mon Oct 01 2007 09:42 PM

Yep, thank heaven for the CMC site. Was really getting worried seeing "ex-Karen" firing up each day. Now after CMC's late run today depicting a Cat. 5 over Key West......, only now can I truly sleep at night; comforted by the fact that given CMC's latest prediction, that there now could be ABSOLUTELY no chance of such an event from happening. Note: Should tonight's 0Z CMC run suddenly "drop" Karen altogether, be afraid......BE VERY AFRAID! ( lol )

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