Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Atlantic Basin Is Quiet.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 142 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3317 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida
      #79075 - Sun Sep 30 2007 10:31 AM

October 1st Update 6:40PM EDT
Karen and Melissa are no more, but we are watching a disturbance off the coast of Florida that may develop into something subtropical over the next day or so. The winds are more from the pressure gradient, but the rains around the area have some influence from this disturbance.

The disturbance is now being tracked as 90L, you can let us know conditions in your area here.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Karen has dissipated, ripped apart by shear, but is holding the remnant low still. If shear abates it is possible for the system to regenerate, we'll be continuing to watch it since storms that weaken this much tend to drift more westward. Chances are still greatest that it will turn out to sea before it approaches land, however.



An area east of Florida is worth watching over the next few days for development, nothing entirely to imminent now, however. You can find more discussion on this, here.

The pressure gradient between these systems and the northwest is what is creating the winds along parts of Florida, not this system itself.

Melissa is holding is a minimal tropical storm, and is going to be affected by shear much like Ingrid and Karen were, it should not affect land.

Southeast Composite Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Key West, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
92L (Bahamas Wave) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Melissa Remnants Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Melissa


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Melissa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Melissa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Melissa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Melissa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Melissa -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

90 (Gulf Wave) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #79076 - Sun Sep 30 2007 11:39 AM

well looks like we got a mid-upper level low developing of the SE of Florida again... pressures are dropping a tad in that area at the surface too... The surface flow is very strong out of the NE right now.... Looking at the overall models... almost looks like we will have another system to track in coming days... either from the east coast of Florida down to the western caribbean.

vis sat

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79077 - Sun Sep 30 2007 01:17 PM

Has karens center dissipate yet or is it still swirling.
is the shear starting to lessin.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Recon Schedule [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79078 - Sun Sep 30 2007 01:51 PM

NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-128

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z

edit: 02/1800Z is Noon EDT on Tuesday

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 30 2007 01:53 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: punkyg]
      #79079 - Sun Sep 30 2007 01:58 PM

The TWC suggested that a storm could be forming to the SW of Karen:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #79081 - Sun Sep 30 2007 03:38 PM

It looks like on Vis satellite that there might be a broad low level low developing. Surface observations seem to confirm it also.

East or Southeast Bahamas, buoy 41046: SSE Winds 11.7-13.6 knots

Northeast Bahamas, buoy 41047: E Winds 21.4-25.3 knots.

Settlement point GBI NW Bahamas: NNE Winds 24-27 knots.

--------------------
Lived in Florida 29 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: DaViking]
      #79086 - Sun Sep 30 2007 09:30 PM

As Mike mentioned correctly earlier today, some pressure falls have been noted in the Bahamas. In addition, a swirl was noticable on vis. sat. today, and duly noted per Miami National Weather Service Forecast Discussion from earlier today -

".....Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

000
FXUS62 KMFL 301845
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...A LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS ANALYZED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL
FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY ...."

From where I sit, this small surface vorticity along with the strong high pressure ridge may well continue to enchance S. Florida's wet and windy weather, but if in fact there is to be any tropical cyclone development to occur from within this "tropical constipation", than I believe it will yet come from this same area of disturbed weather east of Florida. In coming days I still anticipate some development perhaps to retrograde westward towards South or Central Florida, but not from this weak transient low level swirl. Will be interesting to see if pressures continue to fall east of Fla.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #79089 - Sun Sep 30 2007 11:45 PM

I don't know but I'm here in Miami with the wind blowing, intermittent squalls... no constant winds but gusty squalls and yet I can't help but look at remnants of Karen more than what is closer to home.

Warm and humid here when it rains yet cool also. Funky feel to the air.

yet... Karen looks interesting, or what was known as Karen. Since NRL still refers to it as Karen I feel safe calling it that too..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Looks to me like the area to the SE of the old center is not convection blown off of any old center to the nw of it and yes its firing up because of the ULL but i don't think the ULL is that big right now as the one off of Florida is bigger..

very complex picture between what would or should be a dead karen lighting up the night's sats and the area near florida which is also stuck between a rock and a hard place shear wise even though some hybrid may develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

interesting still

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: LoisCane]
      #79090 - Mon Oct 01 2007 08:04 AM

Quote:

Warm and humid here when it rains yet cool also. Funky feel to the air.




And funny, over here in w Charlotte county, on the "other side" of the frontal line, it's felt like "fall" since yesterday. Comfortably cool, feeling very mild and dry (don't know what actual humidity is, but it FEELS lower than usual). I told my dh yesterday it's like FALL here in FL. *LOL*

Very gusty though Saturday and Sunday. Not so much today (yet) but I'm sure as the sun comes up and temps go up they will pick up.Like spring cold front system gusty winds.

This is WEIRD weather we're having lately. Really weird.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: madmumbler]
      #79093 - Mon Oct 01 2007 01:05 PM

Miami NWS...
..."STILL WATCHING A WEAK LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A LOW OR AN INVERTED TROUGH. GFS40 HAS THIS LOW OVER
THE FLORIDA BAY BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENGE
SHUTS DOWN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS
DRASTICALLY REDUCED."

11:30 TWD Monday

..."AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. "


CMC is still going a little strong with this area....and most globals are still trying to develope something a in the SE GOM in the coming days from this area.... Something to watch... and wait and see.... the trough looks to be backing up some now... conditions are looking to becoming more favorable...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 01:08 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #79098 - Mon Oct 01 2007 03:01 PM

looks like NRL just added 90L, likely on the bahamas system (no satellite images yet)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: Rabbit]
      #79099 - Mon Oct 01 2007 03:11 PM

Sat image up now...it is the Bahamas system.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #79100 - Mon Oct 01 2007 03:24 PM

Until a moderator has had a chance to update the various links for this invest here is a link to the SFWMD model plots.

SFWMD

SEE Storm 90


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #79103 - Mon Oct 01 2007 05:47 PM Attachment (439 downloads)

just threw a image together... found the BROAD low... see attachment... this is just my obs... looks to me its drifting to the WSW....

I put the broad center inside that red box i made on the map.... and the white arrow of what i think may be the current heading, for the next couple of hours... Upper level winds are not favorable for development right now, but should change in next 12-36 hrs

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 05:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79104 - Mon Oct 01 2007 06:13 PM

Nice work on islolating what may very well be a developing T.D. Funny thing, though, throughout all this talk and finally a 90L tag on this appearant weak low right off the S. Fla. southeast coast, I have been and still remain more intrigued by the base of the mid level trough farther east around 73W and approx. 23N. This has been consistantly flaring up each day, and given the greater room to evolve, have greater concern if it breaks off, while remaining under the same ridge, and then itself moving westward.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: weathernet]
      #79105 - Mon Oct 01 2007 06:28 PM

lol... just threw that together... kinda watching it, this afternoon.... I am actully too looking to the east more on the base of the trough... Looks like to me that a favorable pattern may be shaping up in the GOM in a few days.... which gives me some concern... Upper Levels i think are going to be key, with the ridge off to the North and east... Tell you one thing, love the NE winds we been getting for a few days... Another great beach day, considering we have had a few confirmed reports of RED TIDE along the Panahandle Beachs... which tells me we still got some good warm waters to the south of PC.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 07:26 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79107 - Mon Oct 01 2007 06:56 PM Attachment (417 downloads)

Actually, based on the latest QuickSCATT pass... seems the broad low is a little farther east. Near this location. (see attachment)


WW-911


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: weather_wise911]
      #79109 - Mon Oct 01 2007 07:23 PM

hmm.... i see what your talking about,but looks like the ran latest NHC/Tropical Guidance suite on what i was pointing out.... its going to be hard to locate an actually one.... until it really developes... That weak Upper low in the SE GOM is pulling away i think... to the SW

90L first run: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 07:24 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Area East of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79113 - Mon Oct 01 2007 07:51 PM

You're absolutely correct... until we get a well-defined circulation, it's going to be a coin toss. But I still feel like the primary low will develop (or rather IS developing) to the east of where the models have been initialized.


WW-911


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #79117 - Mon Oct 01 2007 10:08 PM Attachment (571 downloads)

This is an interesting invest.. it's a HUGE area of disturbed weather and there are also 2 areas that need to be watched for invests. This is probably a sign that the weather up here will be deteriating due to the large expanse of moisture looping around the low. I somehow think this will be stronger then TD10. If you look at my attachment, I circled the 2 areas.. This whole thing looks like a ragged low pressure system with a warm and cold front.. very interesting

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 31932

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center