allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I find it rather interesting that the first model that dropped Karen is now ressurecting her back in a few days and heading her to the GOM from the Bahamas. The is one interesting model.. as for 90L, could already be at least a Subtropical Depression, it's been pretty bad over here, but not as bad as our Unnamed Subtropical Storm we had 2 weeks ago. Shear isn't as bad as it was earlier in the GOM, there is a huge warm spot that could allow intensification to be rapid if it becomes tropical by then. All bets are off on what this storm will do, Hugh told me "2007 is the year of deja vu", he is absolutely right!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
929 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 06 2007 - 12Z TUE OCT 09 2007
EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN A REPETITIVE MODE..WITH THE FUTURE
LOOKING A LOT LIKE THE PAST.
THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN /WRN ATLC SHOULD DIRECT ANY
SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A FIRST WEAK SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
REACH OR APPROACH THE WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY DAY 3/FRI AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A TRACK WITHIN THE RIGHT HALF OF
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN VERIFICATION OF RECENT WEAK
SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF/WRN ATLC. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE GULF BY THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1157 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007
POSSIBLE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THE DEVELOPS A FEATURE HERE WHICH WAS NOT SEEN ON ITS RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY. IT WAS FIRST NOTED ON THE RUN FROM 00Z...FROM
WHICH THE CURRENT RUN HAS TRENDED SOUTH. THE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS.
POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING...
THE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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I'm having trouble locating 90L here around lunch time on Tuesday. Almost seems like last time, the surface low is moving around again. Looks like to me, it may be trying to form near the convection in the EGOM? I don't see a real good indication where 90L would be at this time, except that its REALLY BROAD.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Oct 02 2007 02:41 PM)
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007
VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/0000 UTC
DEEP/POSSIBLY SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER ITS
PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS OF RUNS...WITH A LONG TERM TREND TOWARDS
WEAKENING SEEN ON THE AND CANADIAN. ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
US GULF COAST TO EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IDEA FITS THE SOLUTION BEST
WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 09Z COMBINED SREF MEMBER
SPREAD...WHICH AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NOON MEDIUM RANGE
CONFERENCE CALL WITH . ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CLOSEST...IF NOT DEEPER THAN...THE CONSIDERING ITS CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND ITS EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM TPC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE
Let just do this one more time......
POSSIBLE LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING...
THE /CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A NEW LOW...SIMILAR IN
ORIGIN TO THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IN LATE SEPTEMBER...IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAS A
WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...BUT IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND A SECOND CYCLONE FORMING IN
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HAS NO SYSTEM WHATSOEVER.
SINCE THE MERIDIONAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY FRIDAY...A CLOSED CYCLONE
UNDER ITS BASE IS EXPECTED. ADDING TO THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
CYCLONES FORMATION ARE TELECONNECTIONS...WHICH SHOW A 225-250
METER POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR 45N 75W...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER CYCLONE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR THE
25TH PARALLEL. WILL FAVOR A WEAKENED VERSION OF THE /CANADIAN
PER THE NOON MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL WITH .
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Looks like a few areas of interest for points in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico over the next week and a half. 90L doesn't look like it's going to do anything major. Situation and setup is quasi TD #10. If it follows the trends of TD #10, (formed from a wave, trough and ULL), look for a few rotating centers around a broader low tomorrow as things wind up a little. Could be anything from a broad low to a subtropical depression to even a mid-grade tropical storm by landfall somewhere between Galveston and Destin. Models want to say SW LA, but we saw that with TD #10, and they were all too far south pulling #10 west. It eventually got to Texas, but it rode up on 33/34N.
90L appears to be setting the table for a much larger threat the following week. 18Z puts landfalls a fairly large system inland after landfall between Mobile and PCB at 216 hours +/-. That's 9 days from lunchtime, or +/- Thursday of next week. As most of you probably know, many of the models have been hinting that the secondary area (east of Florida) would also close off and possibly turn into something far more substantial than what 90L could likely get to. It's still too far out to know. We should have some indication by the weekend if we're going to be facing a real threat next week. What the 18Z does is bring it down toward Cuba and over to the Yucatan then fades it up to the Panhandle. Based soley on the 18Z , I think anything prior developed would likely be weakening at landfall rather than strengthening as we've seen this year in the Western Gulf. This does not in any way mean that I believe we'll have a weakening, landfalling storm in the NE Gulf next Thursday and is solely based on the model and potential heat content from Jeff Master's first half of October update released today or yesterday.
*edit* link to the 216 hour 18Z (subject of the above)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_216.shtml
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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To my untrained eye, it looks like there's a new low pressure center forming at 24N and 85.5W. Does anyone know if the data supports this?
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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The eyes can play tricks, the latest quickscat showed no low. However, as most models are predicting, a low will form sometime tommorrow or in the next 48 hours, it MAY be a major player for the USA in the future.. right now, it's just one impressive disturbance. 90L looks ill, but it is Durinal minimum and maximum is coming up soon so maybe it will blossom tonight... it's all a wait and see, the is very interesting tonight.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As of 0355Z, 1155PM EDT, the following Radar sites are indicating the wind speeds shown:
Slidell,LA- NNE at 23knots at 3000 feet.
Mobile,AL- NE at 29knots at 1000 feet.
Eglin AFB,FL- NE at 35knots at 2000 feet.
Tallahassee,FL- E at 33knots at 3000 feet.
Tampa,FL- SE at 20knots at 3000 feet
The wind speed values listed are the highest, Low Level Winds. In some cases there are wind speeds of equal value at higher altitudes. Greater than 10,000 feet.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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TCFA hoisted at 0300Z has some interesting things to say from 's perspective:
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 125NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS, FLORIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1005MB, WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ENCOUNTERS WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (82F/28C) AND MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (LINK)
It would appear that 1005mb is a good estimate, for now. Given the probability of further deepening over the next 24-36 hours or so it is pretty hard to argue against at least a subtropical storm by Friday morning on the outside, and it does seem reasonable to assume that given enough time over the 28c waters a more tropical core will start to take shape.
Looking east for the next "big thing" as so many have been discussing and so many models have been hinting at, the trof and associated convection just east of the Bahamas continues to bubble, and in no small way. Deep convection to be sure. But nothing really taking at the surface, yet. I actually have my eyes a little glued on little old Melissa out near 20N 45W. While likely not a closed surface circulation earlier, it could be tonight, considering how well a blowup of deep convection has persisted in the eastern semicircle for many hours now. Would not surprise me to see some mention of this, at the very least, by 11AM if this trend continues.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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90L is churning along. but it's slow going for development. Of course it's slow moving so I guess it evens out. Maybe another 24 hours before it'll be able to develop.
What I'm more curious about, is that the LLC of Melissa firing off convection for the last 12 hours now? It had a well defined LLC 36 hours ago, and then this afternoon it started firing up some convection at the center. It's sheared of course, but the convection is certainly there. I'll be curious to see if it's still firing up in the morning. If it is, it'll start to catch some attention (right now it's sitting around 20N 45W and moving WNW).
The tattered remains of Karen? still kinda sitting out there. doing absolutely nothing. 
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, i see 90L. it looks about as willing to develop as TD 10 did last month. it has a little more room, so maybe it won't be as underwhelming. 91L has a good bit of model support and makes synoptic sense. track is sort of oddball (you see them go southwest when they're near the extreme western edge of the atlantic basin... usually not that far east), but given the pattern also makes sense. the karen remnant is gone under days of shear... melissa never totally went away, and is going to have a long post-system track in post-analysis. probably won't keep going.
by the way, ....
psst...
10n/40w.
low pressure.
upper high.
spinning.
HF 1124z03october
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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So... are the remnants of Karen in the area of the Turks and Caicos moving into the area where convection has persisted and is that what gives the impetus to that Bahama area to gel?
I'm trying to understand or see where Karen would have been extrapolated wise and not sure if that is or isn't what is going on.
The beautiful wave down in the Atlantic is Melissa? I was away for a few days, didn't realize.
All i know is shear is relatively low down there and the conditions would support development. It looks like a big system though and Melissa always seemed tiny. Nice structure, good bones as they say.
Warm water.. why isn't more being said about this area?
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.jpg
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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What/where is 92L? I see it on the site but no lat/long or sat images with it?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
Edited by madmumbler (Wed Oct 03 2007 09:02 AM)
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tekkrite
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The image is up there now. Looks like 91L is a new wave at about 10N and 40W, while 92L is the Bahamas disturbance. They just posted an image for 92L. They've also just re-posted 14L Melissa in comeback mode. Getting a little sporty all of a sudden.
91L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Well, a recent Quikscat from 0844Z shows Melissa to still be more of an open wave at the surface, but one can't argue that she has had some intermittent close-offs from time to time, perhaps. Certainly, if nothing else, her LLC has remained intact, and convection never completely went away, either. I'm not confident that this all will be added post-season, as it is not entirely clear if they will feel this activity is sufficient, as it doesn't necessarily meet the requisites for being a tropical cyclone. I think we simply do not have enough scat passes, certainly recon, etc., to know for sure one way or another, right now.
The wave down near 10N 40W (now 91L) probably has the very best shot of becoming something classic, and fully tropical, in the near-term. Invests 90 & 92 have a lot of humble hybrid beginnings to work through, even before they could become classified as subtropical storms, let alone tropical storms. With all of the dry air enveloping the low, mid, and upper lows associated with 90L, it's got the ocean, but still might not have the time, considering how it is having to overcome such an impediment. Still, not out of the question that it gets a name. It has sure cleared a way by laying a path of juicier air and less hostile shear for 92L behind it. Stands to reason that 92 might ramp up as a more fully tropical cyclone than subtropical.
September tied the record for most named. October looks like it wants to at least try to follow in those footsteps. Also, during September we saw three record-setting storms: Felix, Humberto & Lorenzo. I wasn't able to really catch the particular TU, but by what little smidgen I caught from the corner of my eye it looks like Dr. Lyons stated that 2007 is now tied for third place for most named subtropical cyclones (although only one, Andrea, remained tracked as such). Yet, despite all of this, the ACE is running a meager 60.6, as it stands... lots of systems, but shorter life-spans.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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NHC @1130
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR . THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
South florida should keep a close eye on this system.
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neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
.gif)
Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
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I wonder how long it will take before we get Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Noel?
(Forecast Lounge material was deleted.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 03 2007 07:13 PM)
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Looking at the end of the current RGB loop for 92L, there appears to be an LLC at 28N 71.3W. Is this an illusion, or is this the area to which the is referring?
RGB Loop
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I see that as well. Its tried to fire some convection over it but it gets blown south...perhaps more shear than thought?
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Good observation, and my guess is that this may be the "more or less" point for which ( or Navy? ) may have as the focal point for 92L. That said, I do not believe at all that this specific vorticity, will now or eventually turn into anything, but simply move westward with the low level flow. Until continued deep convection and then a more "stacked" low to mid level low develops ( which I DO anticipate will happen ), then would not be atypical to see such an eddy attempt to wrap up, but without the convection and thus falling pressures to maintain it. I believe that a low level center will eventually deepen within the broader low, probably a little farther south and east, within the continuously firing convection. If given enough time, my guess would be that formation would eventually center itself close to the middle of the upper high, thus having the divergence aloft, but without any shearing effect. Given a broader larger upper high, shear would be less a concern, than the "bubble" type upper high we have over 92L now..
Edited by weathernet (Wed Oct 03 2007 05:25 PM)
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