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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
GFS, CMC, HRWF and UKMET resurrect Karen!!
      #79126 - Tue Oct 02 2007 02:25 PM Attachment (562 downloads)

The CMC may not be too wrong on the re-arrival of Karen in a few days.. the model that dropped Karen first, now resurrects Karen in a few days along with the UKMET now hinting at redevelopment.. According to Accuweather (I know :/) Meteorologist Frank Strait, the remnants of Karen is where all that junk is next to 90L.. If that is true, and if these 3 models verify, would this new storm be named Karen? I really don't know but I would think a Katrina situation since there is no low level circulation.. probably as 90L will most likely be Noel, this one, if it does, becomes Olga but for right now, I still hang on to Karen until it becomes classified as something else. Here, on the attachment, I made some diagrams on the current satellite image on the possible areas to watch. The week starts out quiet, but I believe it will be active as the days go by.. I do agree with the 3 models, but I would make it stronger if it were to enter the Western Carribean as the GFS and UKMET are showing.
Here are the new runs..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

2:55 p.m. the HRWF now shows the leftovers of Karen in the Western Carribean on the run for 90L.

see attachment for map..

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Oct 02 2007 03:12 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: GFS, CMC, HRWF and UKMET resurrect Karen!! [Re: allan]
      #79141 - Wed Oct 03 2007 11:57 AM

That isnt the left over of Karen.....Karen dissapated...this was a trough of low pressure. If it develops it will be another name.

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