MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Nothing imminent, no model hints of development, and just a general lack of activity mark the mid to late October 2007 hurricane season. The only thing even worth looking at right now is the wave in the Central Atlantic, which will likely get ripped apart by shear in the near future.
This season has been filled with shear, and two extreme hurricanes that went into Central America and Mexico. One last minute hurricane, Humberto, hit the us. Only one storm affected Florida, Barry, back in the first part of June, and that was a minor Tropical Storm.
There is possibility for more development before the end of the season, so it is important to remain vigilant, but the likelyhood of anything major happening now is extremely low for the remained of this year.
In short, there is not much going on, so enjoy the rest of October!
90L (Caribbean Wave) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=16 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 90L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 90L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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It looks the the is forming something about 5-6 days from now in the Central Atlantic. I did not see any of the other models pick it up.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Well I wouldn't say it's over for October just yet, the is hinting that favorable conditions will be in place in the Western Carribean and GOM in 2 weeks. Some of the runs like the agressive 12Z spit out a nice strong storm.. It's still Hurricane Season and people should not get there hopes up for no more activity.. besides, it's La Nina. However, I wouldn't panic, nothing out there now, well one storm near 50W that should be an invest but the is not mentioning it. te is the only model that supports development into Noel in a few days, it is something to watch, most likely a fish spinner if it ever forms. I do believe in 2 weeks, we'll be talking about something.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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In addition to 2007 continuing the '06 tradition of shear, albeit to a lesser extent, I suspect 2007 has had perhaps a somewhat higher than usual number of systems form very close to land, thereby limiting their development (certainly both Humberto and Lorenzo were racing full speed towards a -esque status, but that they came inland too soon having formed so close to shore prevent as much). And perhaps yet another interesting feature of 2007-to-date has been a larger percentage of higher-latitude systems, that as such more rapidly entered an unfavorable shear zone.
Perhaps what I found to be the most interesting landfall of the season-to-date was TS Erin. What an amazing reformation that occurred with her once well-inland! "Landcane."
Looking ahead as we are, it seems likely to get another name or two before the season is up, but it's darn hard to pick out a favorite area going into the remainder of the month. Perhaps one of the waves traversing the central Atlantic right now pulls together a bit better over the weekend. Some intermittent model support for growing something along the tail end of the cold front now draped SW-NE across the GOM. Looks possible. Perhaps another high-lat hybrid something or other. The big picture right now across the and into the western Atlantic looks a lot more like mid-late November, however.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Alan's post was the subject of another blog's comments last week; notably that the W Carribean and So. GOM later next week would become more favorable...SST's remain high
"it isn't over 'til its over.." (attributed to either Yogi Berra or the AFLAC duck, I can't remember which.)
.
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doug
Edited by doug (Mon Oct 22 2007 11:38 AM)
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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Looking at the latest computer models for tropical cyclogenesis, it appears as if all the models are hinting at tropical development occuring around the northern Lesser Antilles in about 5 days. Looks like hurricane season may not be over just yet based on these models.
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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From today's Extended Forecast Discussion ...
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
BY THIS WEEKEND...A FRONTAL DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST COMBINE WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT TO LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
CANADIAN FORMS VARIOUS TROPICAL LOWS NEAR THE WEST INDIES ON ITS
00Z AND 12Z RUN...WHILE THE FORMS A SYSTEM DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORMS
GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULLS EYES WHICH MOVE ALONG THE GREATER
ANTILLES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN FROM THE ROUNDY TROPICAL
CYCLONE PROBABILITY WEBSITE INDICATES A GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER COORDINATION WITH TPC...FORM
THE LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING IT WEST.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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So far today, the only feature I am able to discern as having any chance at any very near-term development is the surface low associated with the non-tropical low over the central Atlantic. The surface feature is located near 30.5N 36W. Ship reports suggest maximum sustained winds may now be in the 30 knot range, and pressure down to perhaps 1009-1010mb. A few showers are firing off in the coc. There is a hint of perhaps becoming a touch low-level warm core symmetrical. I gander that this may be something that gets an Invest tag.
Rest of the features feel like wave monger material, so far. The Roundy experimental tropical cyclone formation probability product vpbob cites above is certainly bullish, although almost backwards-looking now. Nonetheless, two very convective waves (interaction with ULLs) have persisted for a good while now. The bottom of the cold front cutting across Mexico and entering the east Pac has shown a few hints of building on some preexisting cyclonic flow down there. Might be interesting if it breaks off and festers a while. In the meantime, the associated Tehuantepecer is blowing hour after hour easily over 35 knots from the ocean, and it wouldn't be surprising to find sustained wind of over 45 knots inland.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Very interesting areas today.. it's like the tropics woke up from a month long sleep. The Lesser Antilies wave is looking more better as it is in marginal conditions. If the CIMMS shear map is right, the shear really decreased some from yesterday. Maybe this whole storm idea may not be out of the question as the , , , NAM, UKMET, and almost the EURO hint at something forming out of this. I see where the EURO and UKMET are showing development, a nice looking blob but in 20 knots of shear. Shear just only needs to dcrease 10 knots more if something wants to get going, I have a feeling this will happen in the coming days. I was interested in the blob in the BOC, but it looks cold core to me.
Bottom line folks, shear is finally decreasing enough for somethings to look interesting. The Lesser Antinlies wave looks huge and I do see a spin whether it's mid level or low level, didn't quite make out a low level on the quickscat this morning. I agree with Dr. Masters, it would not surprise me if a depression forms late this week or this weekend as models are decreasing the shear for some formation.
please see attachment above for the areas of interest....
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Well the low looks ok this morning but is starting to move into 20-30 knots of wind shear.. I don't see this developing unitl or IF it moves in the general "hot spot" for storms this time of year. It's obvious by looking at the troical cyclone heat potential is shear is low, this is gonna get going pretty good when it reaches there. The only models developing this storm now are the and . I couldn't find the 00Z UKMET. However, the is watching this closely, especially when they have INVEST on a floater 
So I checked the tropical corner on Frank Straits blog and I absolutely agree, if it doesn't move southwest soon, it will get ripped apart AKA Chris 2006 lol. It still has this afternoon before it reaches that high wind shear so we'll see what happens with that.
The EURO model rapidly forms a hurricane and hits South Florida in 250 hours from now.. again time will tell.. but pretty scary to note that. Usually the EURO is on board with a storm, things get pretty serious.
Oh and last to point 90L has FINALLY been added for the Puerto Rico low, and i'd say it's about time!
Edited by allan (Thu Oct 25 2007 09:24 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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90L doesn't look half-bad. They could have tagged this one yesterday. It's formed on the tail end of a frontal feature associated with the giant non-tropical low centered out over the central Atlantic. Shear over 90L isn't horrific at this time, although certainly not helping it any. I wouldn't pay any attention to tropical cyclone heat potential for any system that is in an environment barely supportive of tropical cyclogenesis, as it is. In fact, the atmosphere is likely to be a far, far greater determinant of this system's true potential than the TCHP (assuming 90l can actually pop in the first place). Conventional satellite, buoy and ship reports suggest it could be a fighter.
Other areas of interest include the remains of a wave in the central Caribbean and/or the southern portion of the strong cold front that is going stationary this morning. Some models still want to create a TC down in there over the next 4-7 days, which doesn't look impossible. There's also the rest of the above-mentioned very large non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic, without any model support to speak of, but which could slowly acquire some subtropical characteristics as it meanders over subtropical to marginally tropical waters out there somewhere in the vicinity of 25N 45W +/- five or ten in any direction.
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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
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Re: 90L, In San Juan, PR the wind has been out of the east, in Virgin Gorda, Brtish Virgin Islands it's coming out of the WSW (noteworthy because of their close proximity to one another).
Forecast: Saba, St. Eustatuis, St. Martin
Today: Partly cloudy, temporarily mostly cloudy with local showers and risk of thunderstorms. Showers could be at times frequent and moderate to heavy. Some local street flooding is possible.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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90L has had a very well-defined surface/low level circulation for a few days now. Unfortunately, QuikSCAT missed it this morning, but, there is enough data coming in this afternoon to prompt to give it some rather high marks in this evening's
530 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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)caught this is a long range outlook...
0304 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
"...ECMWF (image ) DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND FL
STRAIGHTS IN THE DAY 6-8 PERIOD. WHILE LATEST -ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE LESS POTENTIAL FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT..."
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 25 2007 11:33 PM)
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Three quick questions:
- Is 90L in Hebert's Box?
- Is the big low in the Atlantic big and persistent enough to be called a gyre?
- I know fronts act like "deflector shields" for hurricanes but is the stationary front off Florida too close to ensure protection?
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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The frontal boundary over on the east coast of Florida is forecast to move west slowly in response to the ULL over Tennessee/Arkansas/Missouri retrograding northwest.
As this boundary passes again, it will increase moisture and rain chances for Florida. Looking at WV imagry the moisture plum is from the Caribbean moving north so this should have some ample moisture.
If this invest moves into that area it could be in a good location if it doesn't run into land and get ripped apart before then.
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Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
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It did pass through the south western corner of box #1 but has exited it as of 18Z.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Among some mets, bloggers & models, that is. And probably with some pretty good reason.
SSTs for each are fully supportive of tropical cyclogenesis. It's still October, and not mid-January, after all. So, when it comes down to if either of these guys can get going, we're mostly looking at the degree of spin/pressures, convection, and shear.
Invest 90L
Shear -
Invest 90L has begun freeing itself of the clutches of its parent ULL, continues to head WSW or SW, and by most reasonable shear measures, is now under 20 knots of shear, possibly a touch less if even figuring it as net-effective shear, and is on a heading that takes it well under 15 knots of shear during the weekend.. and possibly to even nuzzle under a very supportive upper-level wind-flow pattern with less than 5 knots shear by Sunday night. For your reference: UWCIMSS
Spin/Pressures -
90L has had a fairly well-defined surface circulation for the better part of this week. Winds have been enhanced along its northern semicircle due to a bit of a tight pressure gradient, even blowing upwards of 45 knots. Winds in the southern half have been running generally under 15 knots, with perhaps a few bouts of 20 knots per buoys, ships, NWS stations and scatterometer. Therefore, 15-20 knots is likely much more representative of the true surface circulation. Pressures have been running roughly 1005-1007 mb throughout.
Convection -
Perhaps the single largest impediment to 90L from having gotten beyond "almost there" on Thursday, at which time 90L was earning T numbers of 1.5 several times, to earning the kiss of death "too weak" during the day Friday, has been its inability to wrap deep convection about itself, because of high shear. This may, and tonight is to some extent, quickly change, should it indeed enter the low shear zone mentioned above.
Untagged area of interest in the western Caribbean
This feature has come about through the interaction of a powerful cold front which took up nearly stationary over the northwest Caribbean, a tropical wave, and a small upper-level low. System has featured an obvious mid-level cyclonic flow along with several small pockets of showers and a few thunderstorms rotating about the mid-level low, for two days or so now.
Shear-
Now down to about 10-15 knots (10 per CIMSS, but increasing a little bit in the vicinity of the mid-level low and recent burst of deep convection). For the most part, shear in the western Caribbean is favorable for further development this weekend.
Spin/Pressures-
The ULL looks to have continued to weaken, the front has begun retreating north and is washing out, and the formerly mid-level low now shows a clear and fairly robust surface reflection per the most recent QuikSCAT imagery. Pressures area-wide are relatively low.
Convection-
Somewhat intermittent and scattered at first, but not lacking tonight. A small MCS may have developed in the vicinity of the surface reflection.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED HALFWAY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND ARUBA.
THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SQUALLS WHICH ARE AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...PRIMARILY
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
AREA ON SUNDAY IF NECESSARY.
TWO
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I agree with the new which should have most people on alert this morning. I figured the system would get better organized today but not this early. the storm should be at depression status either by 5 p.m. or 11 p.m. tonight. things are getting very interesting as 90L is moving towards a wind shear shield! If this were to happen, I expect almost a rapid intensification phase to a TS if it gets under that anticyclone to it's southwest.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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