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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: allan]
      #79288 - Mon Oct 29 2007 10:18 AM

Don't think we should over analyze this...I think NHC has it right. The latest images indicate the center is re-forming NNW of and just off the coast of Haiti. There is some new convection there...movement still seems to be to the North.
I have no handle at all on the forecast track of this system...I see no reason why it won't begin more westward because the ULL is forecast to weaken and the Sub ATL ridge will be its only influence. Although a short wave trough is foresast for Wed-Thursday the one now dropping into the upper Midwest doesn't seem deep enough to influence the SE ATL coast...so one must be further up stream.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 304
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: doug]
      #79289 - Mon Oct 29 2007 12:31 PM

No disrespect to the NHC, but latest Vis sat images show a deepening Low-Mid level circulation that is improving during the last 2 hours and is heding NW. I am concerned about the timeline now, as it should be in the south-central Bahamas tomorrow if it maintains its current course. This may be a close call for the Florida peninsula, as the building ridge will have a tendency to move it more westward before turning it north as the High moves eastward Wednesday. If it gets into the Bahamas, staying north of Cuba over open waters, it will have nearly 48 hours to intensify before a shortwave moves into North Florida and increases shear...whew.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 771
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: Steve H1]
      #79290 - Mon Oct 29 2007 12:45 PM

I know I am watching this thing very closely.Anytime a storm is forcast to get that close to you,you have to pay close attention.This forcast is not wriiten in stone,I feel all of us in South Florida should make sure we do not let our guard dowm.The NHC will be the first to tell you that this time of year forcasting becomes even more diffecult.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79291 - Mon Oct 29 2007 02:19 PM

Based on what I have reviewed over the last several hours of PICS the movement is more wnw, and if what the NHC has described as a mid-low center is the true center, then the forecast will have to change.

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: doug]
      #79293 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:31 PM

Caution:
NHC storm headings are based on a 12 hour average and do not always reflect the Current Storm motion.

Remember Hurricane Charley and the "duck rule".

If it looks like the storm is moving toward you... it probably is!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: danielw]
      #79296 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:47 PM

True enough...in this instance the hunters are there; the visible iimages which now cover about 4 hours suggest further re-organization and the direction hugging the northern coast of Cuba...

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: danielw]
      #79297 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:51 PM

Current visible satellite indicates the Center of Circulation-CoC, is roughly between Guantanamo,Cuba and Matthew Town, Great Inagua, Bahamas.
Or 20.6N/ 74.0W

Time sensitive image: Centered on CoC
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES19312007302LHta1r.jpg


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 771
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: doug]
      #79298 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:56 PM

Well,if it hugs the north coast of Cuba for any length of time,than I assume the NHC would have to put out Watches for south Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: danielw]
      #79299 - Mon Oct 29 2007 04:25 PM

I agree with that location which is a wnw track; it is left of the forecast track, in my humble opinion.

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 310
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79300 - Mon Oct 29 2007 04:29 PM

Is it my imagination, or did most of the major models in Skeetobite jump a bit left in the last set of runs? Am in Tampa and watching closely because of a camping trip scheduled for Friday PM through Sunday AM. Everything had been trending eastward and safely away from us in Central Fla, but when I see everything jump one direction, the warning lights go off! Is this a one time jump or a trend? These late season storms are notoriously tricky (ask S Fla about a girl named Wilma). I, too am wondering what will steer this so far east like the earlier models. Please keep us posted. When the models trend away from land, this place goes quiet....this one is too close to Florida already not to be vigilant.....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #79301 - Mon Oct 29 2007 04:36 PM

The Path is basically WNW to NW...any stronger of a system in the near term will take this NW towards Nassau and a weaker system will take this just south of the keys near 24N and 80W. The speed of the cyclone and the speed and strength of the shortwave moving across the northern gulf on Tuesday and Weds will determine (When) a turn to the N and NE will occur.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: scottsvb]
      #79302 - Mon Oct 29 2007 04:43 PM

Intensity should remain on the low side just based on the degree of organization and proxmity to land, which would suggest more westerly for a couple of days...
but it is moving much quicker than first thought...
original estimations were for 7mph, mill around a few days then get thrown out to sea.
Everything will need top be re-initialized before any real concensus from NHC can be reached I think.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: scottsvb]
      #79303 - Mon Oct 29 2007 05:10 PM

The 5 p. m. discussion confirms what we've been observing and discussing, but puts the location a little further north and west of what was estimated here earlier. There is some uncertainty when the turn out to sea will occur, and forward speed is still fairly hefty 15mph.
No mention of shear as was mentioned in an earlier advisory discussion. No change in intensity forecasts which call for mid range TS strength.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: doug]
      #79304 - Mon Oct 29 2007 05:19 PM

This from the tail-end of the 5 p.m. discussion:

MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...

If I'm reading the CIMSS map correctly, it does look like Noel will have some fairly stiff shear (30 knots or so) to contend with as it approaches the central Bahamas.

Edited by saluki (Mon Oct 29 2007 05:20 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 771
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: saluki]
      #79305 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:03 PM

Local news here just said we should have watches going up tonight or early tommorow morning.This is getting very interesting.I am starting to check batteries ect ect,just in case we lose power(does not take much here).South Florida should be affected by this system,the big question now is how bad it will be.High wind advisery has just been issued starting tommorow evening.Stay tuned!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79306 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:11 PM

The wind advisory is because of the pressure gradiant difference between the high pressure we have now and Noel. Even without Noel hitting or near us it will still be windy. It looks for now that we will be on the west side of the storm which has less rain and wind, though it will still be unpleasant. Most likely it will feel like the weather we had last Thursday & Friday, with wind and intermittent downpours/thunderstorms.

Be cautious, but don't freak out. Being that our power system is somewhat worse than the one in Bagdad, I'm sure there will be scattered outages, but not anywhere like Wilma.

Hopefully, some of it goes into Lake O.

We will probably get warnings for Noel sometime tonight.

A high wind advisory means winds in excess of 40 mph with the possibility of a gust up to 58 mph.

Edited by Lee-Delray (Mon Oct 29 2007 06:12 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79307 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:23 PM

This system still doesnt look like it will make a landfall in florida..but it will be a close call till tomorrow. Still like said above...some feeder bands will come into SE Florida and watches and possible warnings could go up later. The shortwave trough cutting across the gulf is forecasted to move pretty quick to block this.

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