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General Discussion >> Hurricane History

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low
      #79292 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:06 PM

Study out today that FSU indicates this year has experienced the second fewest hurricane or storm days in the last 37 years, which is equated with a conclusion that relatively this is a very quiet year...the total number of storms not withstanding.
Perhaps Clark can enlighten us?
Doug

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doug


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: doug]
      #79294 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:34 PM

14 storms, 2 category 5 landfalling storms, and possibly 2 or 3 unnamed in post analysis... some quiet season lol. Again I say this, just because the USA missed most of the action does NOT mean this was a quiet season. This was Mexicos turn for storms, I hear that alot about the season being so dull and quiet on the wunderground blogs when the truth is, it really wasn't a quiet year. It was a very active season, lots of records broken. Now last year was quiet.
Next year will be interesting
Noel is probably our last one unless something liek Zeta (2005) pops out which is always possible.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Mon Oct 29 2007 03:35 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: allan]
      #79295 - Mon Oct 29 2007 03:40 PM

I thought the headline was unusual too, but it seems to be based on the # of storm days not the number of storms or intensity...most of what we had really didn't last long, except for the two severe srtorm which were long track systems...it is all relative to the point of reference, I guess.

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doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: allan]
      #79319 - Tue Oct 30 2007 12:04 AM

From the standpoint of 'storm duration', 2007 has indeed been a rather quiet year. If you have 20 named storms in any given year, but each one only lasts a day or two, that is not a 'busy' year in terms of total storm 'days'. Here is another way to look at it:

Exclusive of TWOs and RECON messages, the NHC issued:
1,692 messages in 2004
3,074 messages in 2005
1,125 messages in 2006 and
959 messages so far in 2007.

If Noel hangs on for another 5 days, you can add about another 100 messages or so to the 2007 total.

The 2007 total will still be below that of 2006, i.e., when based on total storm duration, 2007 will not be as 'busy' a year as 2006 was - even though 2007 had a greater number of named storms.
ED


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: doug]
      #79536 - Thu Nov 01 2007 09:05 PM

Quote:

I thought the headline was unusual too, but it seems to be based on the # of storm days not the number of storms or intensity...most of what we had really didn't last long, except for the two severe srtorm which were long track systems...it is all relative to the point of reference, I guess.




Well, it's sort of tied to that, yes, but also to intensity. Accumulated cyclone energy is dependent upon two factors -- longevity and intensity -- albeit moreso longevity than intensity. It's a more representative measure of total activity than storm counts alone, however, even if it's not perfect. But you're exactly right -- it's all relative to the point of reference.

I don't really have any comment on the study other than that everything in there is factually true, even if the media representation has been weird at best.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1832
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Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: doug]
      #79544 - Fri Nov 02 2007 05:50 AM

I am amused that they would conduct such a study and release it to the "news" media prior to the season even officially ending, and really, prior to post-season reanalysis having concluded.

Rather fitting that Noel became a hurricane the very same week.

A note about this year's ACE:
An arguably greater percentage of cyclones than usual formed very close to land this season, cutting their ACE far short of what it would have been otherwise. Additionally, 2007 saw a far greater percentage of subtropical cyclones form than usual, and even subtropical cyclones that go on to become called tropical do not have their subtropical phases included in the formula.



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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: cieldumort]
      #79557 - Fri Nov 02 2007 08:08 PM

Well, it wasn't FSU that released it; it was one student in our graduate meteorology program. He orchestrated it through two media sources; it took off from there to others.

The numbers certainly could change between now and then, but that wouldn't grab headlines, right?

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1832
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: Clark]
      #79568 - Sat Nov 03 2007 01:22 AM

Nothing gets print like saying "Record setting ( fill in the blank )"


Regarding this season's ACE, a quick eyeball of the updated ACE stats in Wikipedia's entry on the measure suggests that now with the inclusion of Noel, and of course not even yet factoring in any post-season upgrades and/or additions, 2007's Accumulated Cyclone Energy is just about "near normal"
(LINK), and certainly a far cry from any "record low season," even by that measure.


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