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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Noel Over Cuba, Weaker
      #79308 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:25 PM

Midnight EDT Update 31 October 2007
Noel has started moving more north and is approaching a "wall" of sorts to moving much further west. No Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Florida, and this will likely remain the case.

The current forecast track takes Noel abruptly to the north and east over tomorrow, and things are shaping up for this to be the most likely scenario,

For discussion of other, less likely, scenarios check out this thread here.
What's it like in your area? Let us know here


11AM EDT Update 30 October 2007
Surface reports in Cuba have confirmed that Noel has made its way westward into Cuba. This should keep the system weak, the forecast still calls for a sharp northeastern turn, but because of more land interaction, will likely stay weak or fall apart before it gets to the Bahamas.

No Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida have been issued, as the system is still expected to pass to the east of Florida. The pressure gradient will keep the wind brisk for the next few days in Florida, however.



Since the system is still moving west at this hour, it is still possible for Tropical Storm Watches in Southeast Florida. Noel still needs to be watched until the projected turn has been made.

An interesting possibility is that the storm keeps moving west and reenters the Caribbean sea, missing the current kick out to sea. This would keep Noel in the Caribbean for a few days before anything else came along to move it out. This is less likely, but if it continues more westward it becomes more likely.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Noel has moved away from Haiti, and has now entered the Atlantic south of the Bahamas. The forecast track takes it generally Northwest and then Recurving back to the northeast once between the Bahamas and South Florida.

Noel has caused at least 20 reported deaths in Haiti due to mudslides an rain. Parts of Hispaniola received as much as 30 inches of rain.



This may force Tropical Storm Watch for a good chunk of South Florida tomorrow, with the pressure gradient as large as it is, winds will be felt well away from the system, including Central Florida. Which may cause erosion and rough conditions at the beach. But most models suggest the system staying offshore. Many have trended west during the day today.

Slow to modest Strengthening is possible over the next few days, but the official forecast still holds it at no stronger than a Tropical Storm. The way it is set up now, the stronger the system gets, the more likely it will remain away from South Florida.

Due to the proximity to the Bahamas and South Florida, everyone in the cone should be prepared for a Tropical Storm, and perhaps make sure you still have hurricane supplies anyway in case of unexpected further west movement or strengthening.

The most likely scenario right now is that it remains offshore, maybe a few rain bands for south Florida, and gradient driven winds for a good chunk of Florida, some of which may be rough. Be very mindful of this for Halloween night.

Radar Loops
Flhurricane Long Term Noel Radar Approach Recording
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Large Miami Radar Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Cuban Radar
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Noel Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Noel


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Noel (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Noel (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Noel

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Noel
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Noel -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Noel Northwest of Haiti, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79310 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:43 PM

what are the chances of hurricane force winds in East Central Florida by Wednesday?

Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 30 2007 12:45 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79311 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:44 PM

(Post moved from prior thread as this main page lead was going up as I was typing)

Well, models have pulled a bit back to the left. Not at all surprising, as Noel appears to be heading even a touch left of these runs.

It is time for Floridians to begin taking much more note of Noel, and I'll lay out why -

First - Noel has had throughout its history, even well-before ever being officially declared a tropical cyclone, nearly a preponderance of the strongest winds occurring within the fairly tight pressure gradient mostly within his northern semicircle. This is because of the area of high pressure which surrounds Noel to his north, and this is likely to continue to some extent through the next several days, even with the real potential for a front or shortwave to come on down and sweep him away. As such, on Noel's current official forecast, these gradient winds may cause some very strong north-easterlies along the east coast of Florida, regardless of whether or not Noel comes ashore, or very nearly ashore. All should remember that the effects of a tropical cyclone are often felt well in advance and well away from its center of circulation. These winds, and associated dangerous rip currents, could be bugging coastal Florida as early as mid week and even last through the end of the week.

Second - For a couple of days now Noel has continued to tap in to a deep moisture feed, producing copious tropical torrents. While most have occurred to the north, east, and southeast of the center, some have wrapped around from the east and northeast, to affect locations within the northwestern quadrant. Based on the current track it could be easy for some of these very heavy squalls to affect south Florida mid to late week.

Now for the others -

It goes without saying that it is Halloween, and even a Tropical Storm just offshore can cause a significant increase in injuries or worse to unwary party-goers, ghouls and goblins who are not exercising prudent caution in their plans. Without a doubt, extra care should be taken at the beach, and out in the water. Should squalls indeed come inland, driving conditions may quickly go downhill. Additionally, interaction with land can lead to an increase in severe thunderstorm cells, including tornadic supercells. Even without a more widespread wind and rain event, individual squall lines and isolated supercells may wreak havoc on party-goers heading out, or coming back in. Etc.

Considering track -

It is not yet written in stone that the front or short wave is fast enough or south enough to lift Noel off to the northeast before a landfall in SoFlo would become more possible, or even likely. Already a number of us have witnessed the leftward bias since Noel came off the northwest tip of Hispaniola. Furthermore, Noel is moving faster than the models forecast, so it may also outrun the front/shortwave energy, and travel a good bit farther west before recurvature.

In summary, it is probably now prudent to expect something of a wind, rain and rip current event in Florida and along Florida's coast starting about mid week and continuing for a total of one, two, or perhaps even three days. How intense, still a bit unknown. It doesn't take a hurricane to cause a lot of weather woes, perhaps especially around any holiday.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79312 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:45 PM

Hurricane Force? Not likely at all. However, there will likely be Tropical storm force winds, mostly from the Cold Front, and not the system. Erosion is very possible.

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nowhammies
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79314 - Mon Oct 29 2007 08:19 PM

Speaking of winds, if the track holds where it is, or tracks slightly west, but stays off-shore, how high of winds could we be looking at in East Central FL (Orange/Osceola county) I know that I am asking a crystal ball type question, but I am trying to figure out how to prepare a very excited 7 yr old for Halloween night (or not ). thank you for any wind estimates that yo may be able to muster.

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cieldumort
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: nowhammies]
      #79315 - Mon Oct 29 2007 08:41 PM

High Wind Watch is now up for southeast Florida. This watch may of course be expanded in time, depending on track, intensity, strength of the High, strength (or lack) of the front/trof, among other variables. In other words, it's too early to tell.

Here is highlight of the High Wind Watch up so far, which should help give you some idea
_if_ it needs to be expanded farther up the coast -

IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACKS NOEL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. EVEN IF NOEL STAYS ON THIS PROJECTED PATH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AFFECTING PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS MAY NOT DIRECTLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: nowhammies]
      #79316 - Mon Oct 29 2007 08:42 PM

Quote:

Speaking of winds, if the track holds where it is, or tracks slightly west, but stays off-shore, how high of winds could we be looking at in East Central FL (Orange/Osceola county) I know that I am asking a crystal ball type question, but I am trying to figure out how to prepare a very excited 7 yr old for Halloween night (or not ). thank you for any wind estimates that yo may be able to muster.




No one can answer that question right now,except to say it will be very windy.We don't know how close it will come to the coast nor do we know if it will be a TS or Hurricane.You will just have to pay attention to the latest forcasts.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79317 - Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM

Any fellow "weather-heads" have any recent pressure readings from out in the southern or central Bahamas?

As I sit here anticipating the 11:00pm Discussion, and while watching my 135th looping of every different sat. resolution, I am noticing how for the first time this system is wrapping convection farther around the western quadrant than earlier today or yesterday. Is this partially due to lessening shear, perhaps. Also, inflow on Noel's eastern semicircle is being interupted by the very mountaineous Eastern Cuba landscape, thus less moisture and convection collecting perhaps on its eastern side. On the "motion" issue......, well I am certainly not seeing a more northerly component, and if anything a 280-290 degree motion. Hard to say of course given what we have to look at, but my guess is that the current center is smack right under the smaller ball of convection, just north of Cuba. Overall consolodation has been fairly impressive.

While not ready to make any outright prediciton, looking at the way the GFS has been trending, and looking at the 18Z 500mb level winds, I just don't see enough energy droping south to influence a sharp northeast turn, as predicted by nearly all dynamic models. If upcoming mid and upper air were to verify this, than I can see a westward adjustment in about 15 minutes.

Two difficult choices I may have to make by tomm. eve. One, do I put up hurricane shutters tomm. eve., and two....., do I change my Halloween Costume to that of a "Blowin' Tumbleweek" ( perhaps more apprapoe than Elvis ).

(Forecast Lounge type comments were removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 29 2007 11:19 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: weathernet]
      #79320 - Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 AM

Path will be adjusted back slightly to the west but still no different from the 12Z runs of today showing it getting close to 80W then moving NNE between Fla and Andros Island across Grand Bahama and out to sea. Timing of the trough coming down and the speed of the cyclone will be key if it brushes the keys or extreme Se Florida. As of 11pm adv they have it at 21.2 N and 75W...but as of that time radar out of cuba shows this near 21.2N and 75.5W.. and as of now 21.3N and 75.7W at 0430Z moving WNW at 14-15mph.

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danielwAdministrator
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Non Tropical model run [Re: scottsvb]
      #79322 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:33 AM

The Season with No reason continues...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1251 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID OCT 30/0000 UTC THRU NOV 02/1200 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SHORT TERM FORECASTS.


MODEL TRENDS...

...TROPICAL STORM NOEL...
THE NAM IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF NOEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST... THEN FASTER AND TO THE LEFT ONCE IT RECURVES.

...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 2 AND 3...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL VORTICITY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...TROPICAL STORM NOEL...
THE NAM IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSE TO TPC GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z/01 THURSDAY... THEN ACCELERATES NOEL ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK A FULL DAY
FASTER.

...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 2 AND 3...
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE SUPPORT OF BOTH THE HIGHLY RESOLVED 12Z/29 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/30 GEM REGIONAL MODELS... WILL RECOMMEND A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH THE WAVE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
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Re: Non Tropical model run [Re: danielw]
      #79323 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:51 AM

Daniel,

Yeah, I just read the same and thought......."uh oh"....
Things could get real interesting, real quick if recon comes in with any 997's (mb). With sat. and Cuban radar depicting motion seemingly hugging the coastline, do you know how hindered NOAA will be in getting solid obs.??

Shortly after my above submission, just noticed NHC with 2:00am. intermediate showing recon coming in with 999mb. Also, as the 0z models are coming in, am seeing the FSU MM3 similar to the Canadian with a more westward motion or "land tour" of Cuba, before hooking north. Meanwhile in order for GFDL to be on the mark, Noel will have to take an immediate due north turn. Given the appearant West to WNW motion, looks like the GFDL is off the mark. UK, like the GFDL intensifies Noel, but bring him directly over Andros Island, before leaving for greener pastures. Just goes to show how having all the right "initial" components play so differently with any model's outcome.

While leaving my previous "forecast" post accordingly in the Forecast Lounge, I will nonetheless simply state that things may truly become more dicey for us folks here in the Southern Florida area, come morning. Perhaps the Canadian model will have "nailed" it and Noel will take the land tour, thus weakening it substantially? Pinning hope on the Canadian though, may be like us Dolphin fans hoping on winning the next 8 games ( LOL ).

Edited by weathernet (Tue Oct 30 2007 02:18 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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More-not what you wanted to hear [Re: weathernet]
      #79324 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:41 AM

I just saw the Advisory with the 999mb and 55kts. Those two numbers bother me. Maximum pressure- wind for 999mb is 76mph. So there is some potential for Noel to intensify. About 4 hours until sunrise in that area. Better sat shots and we'll know then if the sun is going to assist in the intensification.
This storm has a tenacious vortex/ center of circulation as evidenced by it's staying together after passing over the island of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The mountainous terrain on that island usually knocks a great deal of energy out of a tropical system.

Keep an eye on this storm

The other phrase that caught my Attention was:
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 1074
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: danielw]
      #79325 - Tue Oct 30 2007 05:02 AM

Somewhat significant changes with the 5AM

5AM from NHC now calling for Noel to become a hurricane Wednesday morning-ish, and prior to pulling away from Florida. However, at this time the official forecast anticipates _no_ winds of sustained hurricane force in Noel's western semicircle:

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

And the other change:

CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS

Still, the official forecast track begins that sharp recurvature out to sea in about 36 hours, and has Noel quickly undergo ET thereafter.


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dem05
User


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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: cieldumort]
      #79326 - Tue Oct 30 2007 06:28 AM

Morning visible satellite images will be interesting. It is tough to tell for sure, but in looking at the RAMSDIS Floater loop, it would appear that Noel may have made landfall, is continuing on a general westward path and is currently crossing the Island Nation of Cuba. These images are always more difficult to make out in the evening, so I think I will wait til sunlight for confirmation...In the mean time, I am sharing the link with ya'll. In taking a look, you may agree. Side note...Noel is looking amight bit sheared this morning. I am growing curious that Noel may split again (Mid/Low level decouple). If so, the models may be picking up and tracking the Mid level vorticity. Today will be a telling and very interesting day.

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp (Click on VIS/IR2 Loop)


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dem05
User


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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: dem05]
      #79327 - Tue Oct 30 2007 07:04 AM

The radar images I amseeing are confirming my hunch...Very apparent that Noel has made landfall in Cuba and is probably about 1/3 of the way across. Moving at a pretty good clip too. If the westward progress continues long enough...It looks like we may be tracking Noel in the Carribean again...

Link to the radar loop: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../hlgMAXw01a.gif


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 821
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: dem05]
      #79328 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:05 AM

No, I think you are right, and that may not be bad news, it will certainly lower intensities...that could prolong the westward drift for a while and keep it over land that much longer, so the projected intensity of Cat I may not materialize.
On another note the WV confirms what the projected track suggests: the turn zone is not to much further west, even if the system stays to the south a bit longer, it will turn before 80W...all the steering currents are radically to the NE south of Florida, and I don't think this system is strong enough to shove that zone to the west.
Look for the storm to not cross Cuba to the Carribean but bounce back off shore to the north of the island in a few hours on a more NW'ly course, and turn as predicted.

--------------------
doug


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 133
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: dem05]
      #79329 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:06 AM

Looks like the NHC sees Noel as a Hurricane for tomorrow just before a scheduled (and hoped for) turn to the northeast. Why am a getting nervous?

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79330 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:18 AM

Quote:

Looks like the NHC sees Noel as a Hurricane for tomorrow just before a scheduled (and hoped for) turn to the northeast. Why am a getting nervous?




Yea,me too.The NHC is having a tough time with this one.It keeps moving west,not what the NHC expected.Right now the shear is low and the SST's are high,not good.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 821
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79331 - Tue Oct 30 2007 09:39 AM

The sat. and radar signatures are really not clear because the system is weak; but, the main vortex may be right on the north coast, and paralleling the coast.
There is enough of a bloom in convection to support the center being over water.
The turn to the NE is imminent, IMO and it will be abrupt and not gradual. I base that on satellite evidence that the upper level winds even over central Cuba are sharply NE'ly.
We'll see.

--------------------
doug


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 133
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79332 - Tue Oct 30 2007 09:44 AM

I want to ask a very basic "newbie/ignoramus" question here: from the NHC projections I assume that there is some event (cold/dry front?) which is supposed to do two things tomorrow night:

1) weaken Noel back to a TS
2) push it in a Northeastern direction

How confident are the knowledgeable forum members that this will actually occur? How much uncertainty, if any, is there over this? What are the chances of this *not* happening (and, thus a CAT1 heading for Florida)?

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79333 - Tue Oct 30 2007 09:58 AM

Right now, you can throw the models and even the NHC forecast out.. Noel is doing it's own thing and may just may get into the Western Carribean and closer to that Anticyclone! If it were to still get booted, it would weaken due to the very high shear to the north and east. However, the Anticyclone is trying to meet up with Noel and it could act as a shear shield.. which all means that Noel even in 50 knots of shear may just continue to grow IF it moves north. If it gets to the Western carribean, then the uh ohs come into play. Noel is making for a very difficult day today for us stormtrackers.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Oct 30 2007 09:59 AM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 239
Loc: Palm City, Florida 13.46N 144.74E
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79334 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:00 AM

Not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but avid watcher. Answering your question-I would say slim to none on a hurricane in S FL. Models are exteremly accurate with a storm staying withinin the cone of error out 3 days, forget about the OFCl track as evidenced by Charley at the last minute. But even Charley was within the cone. I would say if you are not in the three day cone you are out of harms way.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79335 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 AM

Quote:

I want to ask a very basic "newbie/ignoramus" question here: from the NHC projections I assume that there is some event (cold/dry front?) which is supposed to do two things tomorrow night:

1) weaken Noel back to a TS
2) push it in a Northeastern direction

How confident are the knowledgeable forum members that this will actually occur? How much uncertainty, if any, is there over this? What are the chances of this *not* happening (and, thus a CAT1 heading for Florida)?




Noel turning a little more west was not what the NHC expected, but with that said a turn to the north and then northeast is probably in the works. Over central Florida since Saturday we've had a boundary disect the state. Winds where I am are strong out of the northeast. Those northeast winds extend down into south Florida which says any system coming towards Florida will be pushed off to the northeast instead of striking Florida.

As some have said as well, WV shows upper level winds northeast down through Cuba and the western Carribean. Unless this thing does the totally unexpected, Noel should get going northeast and away from Florida and the united States.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #79336 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:42 AM

I would expect south east Florida will be in the cone on the next track update.It is STILL heading west and right now the cone is just barely off shore.Down here the winds are coming from the east unlike further north.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: craigm]
      #79337 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:51 AM

Craig...just remember, the cone is one of those "subject to change without notice" items. It depends on two things.....one is what the models are FORCASTING for the storm to do and the other is what the storm is ACTUALLY doing. When those two conflict you get shifts and changes in the cone. Already it has flipped east, then west, now back east a bit....if the storm keeps moving west, the cone will also move west. Just cause you are not in the cone NOW, doesn't mean that those areas just outside the cone can't be in it by 5pm today. Those in SE Florida better not let their guards down and would be prudent to check up on storm supplies and such.....the cry for them should be "REMEMBER Wilma!!!:.

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scottsvb
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79338 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:54 AM

Whats probably going to happen is Noels LLC will weaken more over land and this afternoon a new center over water to the NE of him will take over. This generally happens with weakening systems with a LLC with the movement inline with the LLF over land while most of the moisture over water will develop a new LLC. Now if the moisture was mostly overland with the LLC then it generally stays intact.

scottsvb


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ftlaudbob
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: scottsvb]
      #79339 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:01 AM

No track update yet,but there is this from the 11:00am update:

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

And it is still heading west at 12mph.

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doug
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: scottsvb]
      #79340 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:13 AM

I think there is evidence of that already, but it is possible, based on the radar signature that the LLC will emerge on the Carribean side this afternoon. That will be interesting.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79341 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:40 AM

I feel for the people at the NHC,this is a tough one.First it was not going to be a cane then it was and now were back to no cane.It was forcast to turn north yesterday and still has not.I would think at this point they are pulling their hair out.

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vineyardsaker
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There is an "H" in the NHC's track - NO MORE [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79342 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:54 AM

Latest 11AM track has removed the "H" and hopefully it will stay this way

thanks for all the explanations, by the way!

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LoisCane
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79343 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:58 AM

thats what they said about Cleo if I remember... a once proud dangerous storm (which this never was) would come off of Cuba as a weak storm and not be much to worry on... however it made it back up to a good strength and did damage

different storm, different time of year

but the galleys of october storms and more so november storms are filled with storms that wouldn't play by the rules as the rules this year are hard to find and are prone to quick changes (fronts strengthen, fronts fizzle out, fronts go stationary)

glad we aren't talking H but wouldn't throw it away completely

work with what you got and see where the storm is when it comes off of Cuba
also hard to predict from past history

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Bloodstar
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Decoupled? [Re: doug]
      #79344 - Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 PM

Out of curiosity, does anyone else think the LLC and MLC are decoupled? It looks like the LLC is heading into the Caribbean while the MLC is staying off the norther coast of Cuba.

Thoughts?

--------------------
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LoisCane
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #79345 - Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM

Not sure on that.. I know what you mean but I think its interaction with an ULL its been following, little mention of that has been spoken of...

i think noel is about to come off the cuban coast and back in water real soon...
should get interesting
nice banding to the south

everyone has been talking about everything but how the front sort of stalled out and high pressure seems to be building in the oddest places

yesterday i would have said.. yeah will go out to sea for sure
today.... a lot going on right now

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #79346 - Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM

I haven't looked at the sats since 2 AM. But the early models Did predict a split in the system.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: danielw]
      #79348 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:01 PM

Here's another view of this:



You can see the source animated satellite here

The mid level isn't completely decoupled, if it were it wouldn't generally be following the Low Level Circulation, but it could at any time the way it's going. The Low Level still has a pretty good chance of making it back in to the Caribbean west of the position.


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scottsvb
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: MikeC]
      #79349 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:07 PM

The midlevel can take over tonight..we dont know yet..but 1 thing is happening and thats the LLC is getting pulled more W due to the weak ULL to its S and the MLL off to the NE is having also a weak flow out of the NE. Overall the models are slightly more W again with the 12Z runs...now we are looking at a system getting near 80W for sure....but when does the turn NE happen? 24N? 25N? or will the shortwave trough be amplified more for more due to alittle more ridging over the SE and this system getting to 81-82W....(though not quite as far as the clipper) but make this go into Florida bay? Today and tonight will be interesting to see how far west this gets and how fast and shape of the ridge affecting the shortwave coming into the NW Gulf.

Edited by scottsvb (Tue Oct 30 2007 01:09 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: MikeC]
      #79350 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM

Thank you. Excellent pointing graphically... I see now what you mean. I thought that was just banding.. didn't realize or see well it was the center (I think) and if it is going WEST AT 12 that would make sense.

Would also make sense there should be some back to the drawing board on this one, a lot to think on..

what model did call for that, i remember one did...

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: MikeC]
      #79351 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM

How,if at all will this affect the system as far as south Florida is concerned?I don't recall seeing this before.

--------------------

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Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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scottsvb
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Re: Decoupled? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79352 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:57 PM

Noel slowing down some to about 8mph....begining to to move more WNW last 1-2 hours....turn might start happening but we need to see more over the next hour to be sure.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: LoisCane]
      #79353 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:01 PM

Noel's weakened a bit, but it's still moving west, although slowing down, so it may start to turning before the day is up.

A few people were asking me about the MLC off the North Coast of Cuba, not much will happen there, the true center over Cuba is much too strong right now for the center to reform up that way. The true center has a lot of good banding at the low levels.

This is a sheared system, and it looks like it'll run up against a "wall" soon and then it will be forced more northward.



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allan
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: MikeC]
      #79354 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:15 PM

I dunno about that, the storm has been off track since it became TD16. I expect this to make it into the Carribean where the Anticyclone is and "possibly" strengthen a bit.. I have very low confidence in it turning now, besides, the shortwave that is "supposed" to turn it is still in Texas LOL. We'll be dealing with Noel a bit longer that we originally anticipated. With that Anticyclone there, who knows what can happen, nature is nature and we sometimes can't get it right, just got to let nature do it's thing. Remember.. ANYTHING can happen, sometimes storms have a mind of there own.

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doug
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: allan]
      #79355 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:32 PM

The radar suggests a portionof the LLC is already emerging to the west and cerainly some of the percipitation over the Island has intensified a bit. So I guess it is possible for the LLC to continue to be the dominant low, and reorganization to occur further south. But I'm with Mike, this has all the appearances of a sheared system. Shear wasn't supposed to be the issue, but if you watch the Sats you can clearly see a fairly strong SW'ly upper component which would be enough to keep the LLC bare so to speak.
But as I stated the southern and western portion of the circulation are drawing on Carribean support now and we'll see soon how this plays out.

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doug


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LoisCane
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79356 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:35 PM

fascinating storm really even though its a not the big exciting cat 4s or 5s we had

there are so many variables with this storm as always this time of year

with this much western movement the models are going to have to shift some

already seen where it will be a gradual turn as opposed to earlier this morning talk was a more northerly turn

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Lee-Delray
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: LoisCane]
      #79357 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:38 PM

If the LLC detaches, will it turn or go W or SW into the Carribean? Does the rest (what's left) go NE into the Atlantic?

And the big question, what happens in Florida other than a wrecked Holloween for my 9 year old?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79358 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:10 PM

Halloween is going to be windy because of the pressure gradient, somewhat cool, with a chance of some rain (but not directly related to Noel). I'd go for it and just see how things are at that particular time.

I'm of the thought that storms don't have a mind of their own, they do surprise us, but it's because of us not understanding everything about them, and mostly the conditions around the storm.

For example, with Noel, there is little to no chance of it becoming a hurricane, the further west Noel winds up, the more unfavorable conditions get for development. When it does get back over water, conditions are going to likely keep it weak too.

Yesterday and the day before the hurricane center's track had a lot of doubt built into it, today not so much, so far it's been pretty good.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: MikeC]
      #79359 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:24 PM

I am not a MET by a long shot,But just looking at the NHC tracking map,this thing better start turning north real soon.If it waits to much longer it will bump right into South Florida.

--------------------

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scottsvb
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: MikeC]
      #79360 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:25 PM

Noel is slowing turning NW now...and should move NW this evening or maybe even NNW tonight towards Andros Island....I was thinking earlier there was a good chance it would get near 80W..but now 78.5-79 seems more reasonable.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: MikeC]
      #79361 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:34 PM

Quote:


Yesterday and the day before the hurricane center's track had a lot of doubt built into it, today not so much, so far it's been pretty good.




Mike. I enjoy your posts and knowledge, but just what about today's forcast tracks do think is pretty good. All I see is the storm center moving WAY left of the track....so the models are just making the turn tighter and tighter and starting farther west as if the northeastern part of the cone is pinned and the lower portion can swivel any way to correct for how far off the path the storm is.....I agree that the northward turn seems invevitable, but the models have missed this westward movement by a LOT...except for the 10/28 12:00 UKMET which predicted this...then changed in the next run.

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LoisCane
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storm still moving west [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #79362 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:49 PM

nice to say its about to make a turn but the official 2pm has it slowing down a bit and still moving WEST..

Im less concerned about how Wednesday Night in Miami is and more concerned about Thursday morning.. just back from the ocean where I took pics (all anyone was doing except the guys packing up the deck chairs) so...

until that center comes off and is in water for at least six hours i think its premature for anyone to say with a certainty what noel will ultimately do... as a met, an amateur or just an observer

and the pressure gradient wouldn't be so strong if not for noel hanging in there
takes two to tango

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Lee-Delray
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: MikeC]
      #79363 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:52 PM

My 9 year old would have gone for it through Wilma!?!

I'm not worried about a strong storm, but figure it will be enoguh to knock power out. For those of you who do not know about FP&L, our power blinks on and off all the time.


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doug
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: scottsvb]
      #79364 - Tue Oct 30 2007 03:55 PM

The visible confirms what you said Scott, also the distance between the mid and low level circulations has lessened. A thought I've had watching for a while is that the midlevel is generally going west too and perhaps the lowlevel is pulling up to reconnect. I don't know if that is why but the visible shows more organization in the low level, more banding, etc. Also the percipitation on the island itself has intensified, particulalrly under that one blow up of convection NE of the center and S of the midlevel....So I question if this is the turn or re-organization.

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doug


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allan
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79365 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:01 PM

The LLC will probably not be relocated, and is NOT moving NW... . It seems the LLC is going to enter the Western Carribean in a few hours... That shortwave is still in Texas and the steering currents do NOT favor a recurvature yet. I think this has a good chance on making it past 80W. Of course, ANYTHING can happen and we all may be wrong lol, Noel is something else.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 30 2007 08:51 PM)


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Steve H1
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79366 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:02 PM

Excellent observation doug, as it appears to me that the two are merging, or the convection getting pulled into the LLC, which is a sign of structure improvement. Now it is even harder to see the LLC, but I assume it is beginning a turn to the NW.

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doug
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: allan]
      #79367 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:14 PM

Alan, I think in time you will see that Scott was correct.
Based on the radar image we have, which is now over an hour old, I would estimate the location to be 21.3 N and 77.6 W

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doug

Edited by doug (Tue Oct 30 2007 04:27 PM)


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allan
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79368 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:23 PM

I'm not saying it's not moving at least north of due west, it's just not moving NW. Look at the steering currents, you can easily make out the strong ridge that is keeping Noel south.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
I'm sorry but that's not going to make it easy for Noel to "miraculasly" recurve. All the models are wrong.

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Old Sailor
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79369 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:31 PM

Doug I agree with you and Scott, to me the LLC and MLC just North east of Noel with make the right turn.

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allan
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79370 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:40 PM

21.0N 78.0W at 5pm
Movement- W at 8mph

As I stated earlier, it can't move NW until that shortwave trough in Eastern Texas gets moving which right now, it's not. I say this becomes a remnant low chubbing in Cuba OR it gets into the Western Carribean and starts to get going. The Carribean scenario is the best choice. I'm not saying it won't recurve, but it all depends on what that trough in Eastern Texas does. West it is and west it will go!

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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doug
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: allan]
      #79371 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:50 PM

Hello alan, thanks for that chart. The question is which layer is the one in play? What are the steering heights that are relevant here? The 200-700Mb chart paints a completely different picture and one which is more consistent with the models and one which high lights the features I see the NHC discussing as relevant to the track of the storm. Not being a Met, I don't really know but I suspect all the models are not wrong.

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allan
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: doug]
      #79372 - Tue Oct 30 2007 04:55 PM

yes but that is for a 940 MLB storm or below.. something like Katrina, a category 4-5 hurricane. The one I showed you is the 1000 MLB steering current map. the weakness is there yes, but it's so high up there and Noel is too weak to reach it. The next big weakness is that shortwave trough in Eastern Texas which was forecasted to be towards Florida by now, and it isn't so all models except maybe the BAMS is off.. in my opinion. We'll have to see what Noel surprises us with next.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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ftlaudbob
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: allan]
      #79373 - Tue Oct 30 2007 05:55 PM

Still moving west @5 according to the NHC.This is one hard storm to forcast!I think now all bets are off,and Florida may need to kick it up a notch and prepare for scattered power outages.Covection seems to be building.I think it is offical the models and the NHC are wrong.No knock on the NHC this one was tricky.It will make the turn north,the question is when.Gotta hand it to Allan,looks likehe nailed this.

Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Oct 30 2007 05:57 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79374 - Tue Oct 30 2007 06:11 PM

At this point, I'm thinking there won't be much to worry about with Noel. It's still a cohesive LLC and Cuba isn't a wide island, but it's going to have trouble keeping together if the system remains decoupled.

Now Mind you, if it maintains a LLC and is decoupled, it could just chug west and perhaps regenerate, but at this point I'm not holding my breath. (We need rain in the North Georgia area and we need it bad)

What a sloppy looking storm. heh

--------------------
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00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

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LoisCane
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: Bloodstar]
      #79375 - Tue Oct 30 2007 07:34 PM

i think for a weak tropical storm its looking incredible

considering it went across cuba all day, its exploding on the north side and the pocket is huge

hasn't followed the plan so far.. why now?

where is this big front by the way, as i said earlier on my blog if you look at the WV since this morning it has gone flat and high pressure is to the north of the storm.. the storm turned west when the orientation of the frontal boundary went fron nw to se to w to east...

the shortwave in texas is not impressive, there ..but not impressive

i say it eventually curves but where and when
timing is everything

very very very windy in miami tonight, the gradient is strong because the storm is strong

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Lee-Delray
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: LoisCane]
      #79376 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:33 PM

We jus lost power here for about 20 minutes. The wind and the rain will make it a blinking night. I just found out my generator works.

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jessiej
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79377 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:49 PM

It looks like the out flow on the WV loop is hitting the wall before 79 degrees. The 8pm update only moved it 0.1 degrees west in the last 3 hours. This might be the turn to the north/northeast that is anticipated.

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005

Edited by jessiej (Tue Oct 30 2007 08:52 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: jessiej]
      #79378 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 PM

The center actually got down to about 20.7N around 1pm eastern then went to about 21N so it wobbled WNW or NW but only at 4-5mph and with the 11am adv from point to point they kept it as W at 5pm...now its still moving the same direction and speed of 4mph. I think any more west movement will be slight in nature. Satellite and water vapor imagry shows the midlevel high cuts off near 79W so it wont get past that. As said earlier...maybe 78.5-79W.A NNW motion at a slow speed tonight and a general pick up of speed on Weds to the NNW then curving ahead of the trough tomorrow night NE thru San Andros Island and eastern Grand Bahama....this should become a moderate-strong TS with winds near 60mph but also then become extra-tropical on Thursday.

I dont feel TS warnings or watches should be issues for SE Florida..some showers might get come onshore though in bands.

NEXT!!!!

scottsvb


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danielwAdministrator
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SE Florida current conditions [Re: scottsvb]
      #79379 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:17 PM

Looks like the combination of Noel and the High over the Eastern US are giving Southeastern FL plenty of worries at the moment.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-310300-
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH MOCLDY 78 70 76 E25G35 29.99R
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTCLDY 77 69 76 NE16G29 29.94S
FT LAUDERDALE MOCLDY 82 70 66 NE22G33 29.92S
POMPANO BEACH MOCLDY 79 72 78 E25G31 29.95R
PEMBROKE PINES PTCLDY 80 70 71 NE28G33 29.96R
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 80 70 71 NE20G30 29.93R
MIAMI MOCLDY 79 69 71 NE14 29.93R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 80 73 79 NE41 29.90R
WEST KENDALL PTCLDY 78 71 79 NE18G26 29.92R
HOMESTEAD HVY RAIN 76 72 86 NE29G37 29.92R

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
LAKE WORTH 77 70/ 17/ 20 1015.4R
FOWEY ROCKS 80 81 50/ 33/ 36 1012.8R
SETTLEMENT POINT 79 50/ 26/ 28 1014.8R


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danielwAdministrator
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CUBA current conditions [Re: danielw]
      #79380 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:29 PM

Camaguey Aeropuerto, Cuba (MUCM) 21-25N 077-51W 118M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:54 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0154 UTC
Wind: Variable at 2 MPH (2 KT):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 in. Hg (1003 hPa)
ob: MUCM 310154Z VRB02KT 7000 -RA BKN009 OVC060 25/23 Q1003

Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba (MUCU) 19-58N 075-51W 55M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:52 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0152 UTC
Wind: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 35 MPH (30 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain; Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature: 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point: 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob: MUCU 310152Z 15020G30KT 100V210 7000 -RA FEW008 SCT015CB BKN020 27/25 Q1007

Camaguey Aeropuerto, Cuba (MUCM) 21-25N 077-51W 118M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:54 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0154 UTC
Wind: Variable at 2 MPH (2 KT):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 in. Hg (1003 hPa)
ob: MUCM 310154Z VRB02KT 7000 -RA BKN009 OVC060 25/23 Q1003

Guantanamo, Leeward Point Field, Cuba (MUGM) 19-54-23N 075-12-25W 23M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:55 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0155 UTC
Wind: from the S (170 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 KT) gusting to 39 MPH (34 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Temperature: 81.0 F (27.2 C)
Dew Point: 77.0 F (25.0 C)
Relative Humidity: 87%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob: MUGM 310155Z 17029G34KT 9999 BKN030 OVC090 27/25 A2974 RMK PK WND 16034/54 SLP071 T02720250

Aeropuerto Jose Marti, Rancho-Boyeros, Habana, Cuba (MUHA) 22-59N 082-24W 75M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:55 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0155 UTC
Wind: from the NNE (030 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT):0
Visibility: 3 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob: MUHA 310155Z 03011KT 6000 BKN015 25/23 Q1011

Holguin Civ / Mil , Cuba (MUHG) 20-47N 076-19W
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:51 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0151 UTC
Wind: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 5 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 94%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.71 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
ob: MUHG 310151Z 15008KT 090V190 9000 -RA SCT020 OVC090 24/23 Q1006

Varadero, Matanzas, Cuba (MUVR) 23-08N 081-17W 3M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:52 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0152 UTC
Wind: from the NNE (030 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: partly cloudy
Temperature: 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point: 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob: MUVR 310152Z 03008KT 360V090 8000 SCT008 24/22 Q1011


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cieldumort
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Re: SE Florida current conditions [Re: danielw]
      #79381 - Tue Oct 30 2007 10:35 PM

This ship report is close enough to the center (likely from within a band, and somewhat less influenced by the pressure gradient interaction with the High than say, Miami) such that, along with the significantly improved satellite appearance tonight .. along with any other data that comes in tonight, may actually nudge NHC's hand at upgrading Noel at 2AM. It is clear that Noel's LLC has been close enough to offshore of the southern Cuban coastline, or perhaps infrequently even just barely offshore, that Noel has most likely been able to draw a fair amount of energy up from the Caribbean, despite being largely over land.

Here's the impressive ship report from 0100Z
SHIP 0100Z 25.30N 77.40W E 49.9 knots 29.71"

If this gets verified to having occurred within a squall it's probably fair to say that some of the outer bands are producing winds up to 60MPH (at least within the region still getting some extra kick from the pressure gradient).


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weathernet
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79383 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:02 PM

Well, sitting here catching a partial 11:00pm advisory, I have to admit was fully anticipating a westward motion of the "magical mystery cone"; contrary, it has shifted eastward. Motion now reported to be Northwest at 5mph. I still believe we'll see a westward shift.

Interestingly, I am not seeing the de-coupling of the low level and mid level that I might have anticipated. Moreso, and I realize that I am the "outlier" against popular thought, I believe that Noel will either continue to move between West and WNW, perhaps a short term NW motion, but then back to a slow West, eratic or practically stationary motion. Just now looking at the 0Z NAM, I cannot help but notice a double barrel high - one to Noel's east and one to the west. 36 hour 500mb shows a trough hanging southwest, yet the flow ahead of it is not Southwesterly?! Overall Eastern CONUS flow appears zonal, and beyond a weakness swinging out in 36 hr., I believe Noel is gonna hang around a while. Not gonna guess where he's going, but i'll truly be surprised to see the long awaited north turn ( albeit am probably the only one who will be ). Just to take it one step further, should a unanticipated turn to the WSW insue, than I believe that the upper air would be conducive for fair development if remaining just south of W. Cuba. All this would mean S. Fla. to potentially get copious rains, while on the Northern periphery.

Then again......if i'm wrong, it should become obvious within 8 hours.


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dem05
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Re: SE Florida current conditions [Re: cieldumort]
      #79386 - Tue Oct 30 2007 11:20 PM

Okay. It is 11PM, the new advisory is out and I have some interesting footnotes...This is one of the few times that I will reference a text product we all can read outside of the thread...But it is time to build a case of clarity in light of some possible confusion???

Please note...I love and trust all the guys at the NHC...They are the best minds in Hurricane forecasting that we have.

11PM Disco Footnote tostart us off:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.

I call the center fix a compromise...there are two reasons for this:
1. Have a good look at the Cuban Radar, the center is not clearly visible where it is depicted...However, along the north coast, there is what some may argue to be a 1/5 to 1/4 eyewall wrapping around a center of circulation.

LINK: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif

2. Interestingly, the center is not there...and probably isn't at the forecast point either. It may be exiting/have exited Cuba over the Carribean. Please reference this link and visit Vis/IR2 Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

THE CASE: Sometimes...we hammer down to pinpoint an exact center...As we also knowin Hurricane preparedness, don't focus on the exact pinpoint center of circulation. In this case, some smaller vorticities are possibly circulating around and are visible on radar (more than likely as I saw at least one earlier this afternoon that came intoCuba from the Atlantic). Otherwise, the system has also likely started to loose some of it's main core due to land interaction...on that note, we need to focus on the broader view and look at the overall circulation pattern. According to RAMSDIS, I would say that the overall circulation of Noel contines to the west, dispite radar obs...and if you look at the loop, I think you will agree that the general core area continues westward and is deviod of much activity....Any low, may meander...wobble or move erratically withing the main circulation envelope...even though that envelope is moving in it's own direction.

The 11PM advisory looks to me as more of a compromise between the radar Presentation and the satellite presentation. If you draw a SW to NE line, the 11 PM center will be right about in the middle. Noel is not done either way, but overall, I think the center continues westward based on the larger picture.

Finally, He will turn north...I love those Steering Charts Allan. Always a personal favorite. If you click the +3 and -3 buttons, it is apparent the high is slowly "eastbound and down...Loaded up and truckin'" In it's own way, so Noel will turn.. When? Is going to remain my question as I agree to disagree in a 315 degree forward motion...You can't will something to do something it is not doing....Fornow, a low level circulation is westbound, while other activity exists...

Bottom Line, difuse system with now "crystal" clear answers over the next 12-24 hours...

Edited by dem05 (Tue Oct 30 2007 11:59 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: SE Florida current conditions [Re: dem05]
      #79394 - Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM

There is nothing to push this westward...even the LLF is moving NW and thats what carring Noel...Midflow is NNW then turns sharply NE near 28N and thats forecasted to bend to a easterly direction. The center is broad right now but the general broad circulation has been moving NW since early this afternoon when it got as far south as about 20.7N just after noon time today then the wobbling NW started at 4-5mph.

Overall the split trough boundry is around 78.5-79W so it wont get past that...the LLF and MLF is about 330dg then around by 78.5W it turns almost due N then NE around 27.5-28N


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weathernet
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79395 - Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM

Just to add to the curious data, contrary to that which would support a northward turn - 0Z run of GFS at 18hr. ( looking at the 500mb level ), clearly shows the short wave in question over the W. Great Lakes region. At the same time, under the zonal flow, comes "Mr. Texas 500mb High" poking his head with an advancement eastward from 18hrs to 48 hours plus. From 18 hours on, the steering level flow is FROM the north in the eastern Gulf, off Key West, and around 80W just south of Cuba. This flow is maintained for a couple of days thereafter. The only component that I can see that would influence a northward motion, is the same one which has yet to bring Noel to such fruition - the 200mb level. Especially given the more shallow system now that Noel is somewhat spread out, and having spent time enjoying the delicious but weighty Arroz con Pollo from Cuba, how does one make a logical case for an immediate turn?

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scottsvb
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: weathernet]
      #79396 - Wed Oct 31 2007 12:54 AM

only chance that Noel has,,,,,,, is to miss the trough and its not amplified as much as it is now,, and what the models show,, and if Noel is weaker....and if a new center develops overnight and over the water and leaves the existing Noel LLC behind....alot of ifs here..... then it should move SSW and meander in the NW carribean but as a weak LLC. I dont expect all this to happen though.

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weathernet
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Re: SE Florida current conditions [Re: scottsvb]
      #79397 - Wed Oct 31 2007 01:11 AM

Scott,

I am not sure what you are talking about with regards to the steering flow at about 28 degree north being "Northeasterly"?! If you look at the 0Z 500mb analysis, you should notice a northward bulging ridge which by chance is practically parked directly over Eastern Cuba. That 500mb Northeast wind barb you are looking at is at "1:00 o'clock" within this bubble high. You are merely noticing the normal periphery wind flow as would be on any northeast quadrant of a round high pressure ridge.

As for the "trough line" you are referring to, unless you are looking at distinctly different maps than I am looking at, I have to believe you are referencing the shear zone as well depicted on satellite. However, you are making corresponding comparisons to this point and Noel's forward motion, which again would be typically steered by 500mb level, much less lower level given the more shallow system that it likely is. I might agree that given a potential westward motion, that given this shear, it is possible that new convection may be limited as Noel might move farther westward, but this is not to say that a low level shallow system should be impacted by whats happening "upstairs". For that matter, 200mb depicts an area about 100 or so miles to the west that in about 24-36 hours would seem to be conducive for development.


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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79398 - Wed Oct 31 2007 01:27 AM

F.Y.I. - As of 1:20am, the IR2 ( shortwave ) nicely depicts an approx. 400 mile wide gyre clearly moving westward with the center approaching 80W, and just south of the Cuban coast. Am seeing no associated convection to the west or south, but the huge bulk of convection in Noel's eastern quadrant does seem to be expanding westward. I am however seeing the mid level clouds increasing toward this low level center, and only time will tell if we are seeing the beginning of a de-coupling of the system, or if the northern edge of all the convection over the Bahamas is about to warm significantly and drop off, meanwhile newer convection perhaps attempting to reform close to ( or at least moving west in tandem with ) Noel.

Can't wait to see tomm. vis. pictures. Hmmm, wonder if NHC will be calling Noel's motion at 12Z "northward" or "northeastward" (LOL).


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cieldumort
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79399 - Wed Oct 31 2007 01:43 AM

A very nice Windsat pass from 2300Z lends a lot of credence to the 0100Z ship report of 50 knots. This ship report came in 240 km from the estimated coc, well-within NHC's 175 m northeast quad 34 knot range ring, and out of the "right" direction given the location of the report ("right," as in much more indicative of the surface cyclonic circulation than of the "Noel Nor'easter" underway).

There is a bounty of entirely believable 35-45 knot wind barbs in this scat pass, both to the north of the center, as well as to the southeast, within the stronger Caribbean inflow. The distance of the stronger winds from the actual center, along with Noel's several-day interaction with an associated ULL, suggests to me that Noel is still something of a hybrid, which also might help explain why he fared so well over Haiti and the DR.
(Windsat link)

We are in a real data void as far as recon here. It would be quite helpful if they would fly around Cuba, along the southern coast, as well. To continue flights to the north of the island is to give up the opportunity to see how much the center is or is not actually offshore, in the Caribbean, as well as to collect more wind data and get a better handle on the true max. sustained winds (not just those being affected by the High to the north).


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: weathernet]
      #79400 - Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 AM

I hate to do this, as both of you have presented a great deal of information backing your thoughts and theories.

But... it's the end of round One.
Break time for those of us reading the posts.

I'm a might bit rusty due to the slow season at hand. But it appears that a shortwave has now cleared a Cameron,LA to Brownsville,Tx line. Using the water vapor loop here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

However, if this is the shortwave that is forecast to 'pick up' Noel. I noticed in the last few frames that the southward extension or amplification has ceased at this time. Nearly on the same latitude as Brownsville,Tx. Moving due east would put in near a Naples to Miami line in about 12-18 hours. Close enough to Noel to possibly lift the storm out into the Atlantic.

Also note on the GOM WV loop. Bottom right hand corner is the western edge of Noel's cloud signature. Something... is flattening the western side of the cloud envelope. Very little arc to it at this time.


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danielwAdministrator
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Heads Up [Re: danielw]
      #79401 - Wed Oct 31 2007 02:12 AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ( 8 AM EDT Wed to 8 AM EDT Thursday)

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD TOWARD SE FL TODAY... VEERING NNEWD AND ACCELERATING TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL AFFECT
SERN FL TODAY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF THE SYSTEM GRAZE THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE FL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK... THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES ITS CLOSEST DISTANCE FROM THE FL COAST.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF NOEL...IT
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF VEERING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/


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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: danielw]
      #79402 - Wed Oct 31 2007 02:25 AM

ROUND 2! ( kidding ) - Anyways, probably not a bad idea getting at least 4 hours of sleep tonight!
Daniel, one thought on the dry slot that you mentioned. I think it may be just that - a dry slot, but beyond that, in looking at the 0Z GFS data, and checking all levels from 200mb down to surface, I was able to find a minimal reflection of this feature between 500mb and 700mb. There was however, minimal wind shift noticable at any level with this feature, and furthermore, was not in phase with the stronger short wave over ( or just west of the Great Lakes ). That is to say, that it was not "attached" to any feature out of the westerlies, and underneigth the more or less zonal flow. Just not sure how this feature itself serves as any mechanism for steering.

And.................yawn.......good night..... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: weathernet]
      #79404 - Wed Oct 31 2007 02:38 AM

I didn't look that far north on the 'shortwave'. So it is more like a shorter shortwave or pertubations in the zonal flow?

I'm with you guys on the " will it pick it up, or not ". Noel should be named Noend... to the unpredictability.

Any 40mph T.S. with a satellite signature like the current one has my attention.


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cieldumort
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: danielw]
      #79405 - Wed Oct 31 2007 03:20 AM

Well, I'm going to go a tiny bit out on a limb here and speculate that the LLC has been pulled in closer to the incredibly deep and rather large flareup of convection within the MLC so far tonight, and, based on an assortment of IR channels plus the radar out of Camaguey, I want to estimate the center to have been tugged nearly due north, to around 22N 78W, as of 3AM EDT. It appears that the LLC is elongated SSW-NNE, and clearly may already be feeling a hint of pulling and stretching.. but not by the trof, which is still back in the GOM, but by the interaction with the MLC flareups and whatever last vestige of the old ULL still exists, I suspect.

Should this more or less be the case, the LLC is essentially back over water, or very nearly so. Lots and lots of data already suggest that Noel could possibly be several MPH "stronger" than the advisory calls for, and perhaps once recon gets back in there, this verifies, as NHC left things at 40 for both the 11PM and 2AM, when the center was arguably mostly well-inland.


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scottsvb
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Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: danielw]
      #79406 - Wed Oct 31 2007 03:26 AM

Maps dont tell the whole story.. You have to look at other data and the MLF that will steer this system and its NNW to N and once the trough picks it up...the system will move NE ahead and become extratropical as it merges with the trough. A piece of energy may slip south but nothing more than a weak LLC.

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allan
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79409 - Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 AM

Morning,
Noel is finally moving NNW and will continue this motion for about a few hours until that ridge can move east enough. Here's the new 1000 - 1010 MLB storm steering currents which explains EVERYTHING!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
Almost there folks, just needs a little more eastward push
Now I do believe the storm might get stronger so here is the 999 - 990 MLB storm steering map
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html
This shows a much better chance of a recurvature, possible in 5 hours or less.. of course it's always known that a stronger storm has a better chance on feeling the weakness then a weaker storm.
Here's how I see it, it keeps moving NNW for about 3-4 hours, then north for about 2-3 hours. Then it should start moving NE after that. This is all based on what i'm seeing on the steering current maps.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1074
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79411 - Wed Oct 31 2007 09:09 AM

Don't let anyone ever tell you that tropical cyclones, in rare instances, can't hold their own, or even intensify, over land, especially if the "land' is an island just, what, 50 miles wide in places. The LLC has obviously been pulled well-north, and Noel is on a tear this morning.

12:54:00Z 22.83N 78.22W
994.8 mb
(~ 29.38 inHg)


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