LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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interesting point Ed made and i would think tho that if that were happening
we would see a storm that has more of a chance to intensify faster, lets hope not considering its so close in right now
"primary center might be drifting northward to align itself with the secondary center "
i mean that could definitely help pull it together
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Convective tower near center is spiking well into the Maximum satellite signal. I don't recall seeing this color used before.
Just south of Andros Island, inside the bright red are is a small white area with a black 'dash' in it.
I have no way of estimating the altitude or the cloud top temperatures. These colors are actuall one or two levels higher than Noel displayed prior to crossing over Haiti.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/img/2007305_0015rb.jpg
I have attached the 'rainbow enhancement' shot to this post.
It also appears on the Funktop enhancement as a white area on the green level.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/img/2007305_0015ft.jpg
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 08:57 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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yeah, that storm is going through a real organization spurt
the trough is there.... not as impressive tonight at noel
i see... we'll see what they say at 11..
i just dont see northward anything... drifting around, stationary more like it and intensifying
over still warm water
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Something very strange going on with the SFMR measuring the surface windspeeds.
It appears that they may have encountered a low level jet stream. Or possibly a strong shear line.
Numbers in bold are the SFMR estimated surface wind speed in knots.
010730 2532N 08115W 3760 08020 0402 -209 -370 274028 028 010 005 00
010800 2530N 08114W 3761 08018 0403 -210 -350 273027 028 044 000 00
010830 2528N 08112W 3759 08021 0403 -209 -370 273026 026 056 000 00
010900 2526N 08110W 3751 08038 0404 -212 -358 275026 026 096 000 00
010930 2524N 08108W 3755 08032 0405 -210 -352 276026 026 142 000 03
011000 2522N 08107W 3766 08011 0404 -210 -348 278026 026 142 000 03
011030 2520N 08105W 3760 08022 0404 -210 -347 279025 025 140 000 00
011100 2519N 08103W 3768 08009 0405 -209 -351 281025 026 133 000 03
011130 2517N 08102W 3818 07916 0405 -202 -336 286023 024 095 000 03
011200 2515N 08100W 3937 07688 0393 -183 -303 295018 020 125 000 03
011230 2513N 08059W 4054 07469 0380 -164 -271 301016 016 087 000 03
Area of peak wind speeds would have been over Ponce de Leon Bay in the Everglades Nat'l Park.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 09:32 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Yeah, this is definitely much more like what you are more likely to see in some of the juicier West Pac tropical storms, to be sure. I've seen a few of the east pac systems flare this deep, but very infrequently.
Noel was doing this earlier this morning, before the LLC exited stage left. HERE are the AMSU Radial/Height cross section anomalies from around that time (15Z). The look of it compared to most of our other systems this year is just parabolic.
I would bet that rainfall rates within those deepest cores are running upwards of 4" to 10" per hour, and the water loading is probably creating a tropical cyclone's version of a very, very wet microburst, locally dragging down the strongest winds to the surface, and enhancing them on the way down. I'm wondering a little about hail production, as well.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Thats my bad ED wont happen again....Already fixed it.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Rainfall estimator indicating 12 to 18 inches per hour NOW (ending at 0030Z) just SE of Andros Island.
ftp://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/smcd/emb/f_f/hydroest/nowcast/BIGINSNC.GIF
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/hn.html
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 09:59 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU NOV 1 2007
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T.S. NOEL
MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME__ LOCATION__ MOTION__ MEAN__ LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
1/0015 UTC 22.9N 78.5W 345/06kts 16.1 IN_ 10.1 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE__ 0.9 TO 1.6 IN__ 1.4 TO 5.4 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE__ 0.0 TO 1.0 IN__ 4.9 TO 7.2 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE__ 0.0 TO 0.1 IN__ 7.1 TO 9.6 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE__ 0.0 TO 0.1 IN__ 4.8 TO 10.1 IN
Aircraft is near or in the center at this time lowest pressure extrapolated from 846mb ( 5000 ft ) is 997.1mb
SFMR rainfall peak appeared to be:
54 mm/hr (~ 2.13 in/hr)
Near 23.0N/ 78.8W
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 10:16 PM)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Iam getting a NW-WNW from recon...3 north and .8 west
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i think thats the plane flying over land... the SFMR is actually really measuring the speed of the aircraft over land... i pretty sure its bad data, seen it with AF recon heading into GOM over land... they turn it on to calibrate?....
Regarding those "Hot Towers".... some impressive storms that shot up over 50-60k ft from what i can tell.... TRIMM should have a good image soon... If you remember.... this is always where the TALLIEST storms from tropical systems have been recorded... like Bonnie, etc... something to do with the very warm shallow water there in southern Bahama's... if this keeps happening and center can tuck under deep convection, before shear jumps in late tonight and into the morning, then a no doubt in my mind we should see this thing jump up in strength some... but with trough coming, shear is knocking on the door!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 31 2007 11:12 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just trying to clarify: is that .3 north and .8 west or 3.0N and .8 west?
edit:better hope it's 0.3 north. 3.0 north is near Cape Kennedy~danielw
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 10:37 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Over land. I didn't think of that. Makes perfect sense.
I still don't trust the SFMR 100%. Maybe 98%
The Gulf Stream running closeby is probably helping fuel the fire. I haven't checked the SSTs, but I feel sure they are above 80F.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Might see those warnings pop afterall for South Florida...
Here is part of the discussion from the NWS in miami.
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPGRADING GALE WARNING/TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671...BUT WILL AWAIT
INGESTION OF 01/03Z ADVISORY WIND GRIDS BEFORE MAKING THE
FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
Uh just realized its for coastal waters.
I just read that too...but I believe it IS for the coastline, not the coastal waters...Colleen
Edited by Colleen A. (Wed Oct 31 2007 10:52 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 010238
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/02:06:30Z
B. 23 deg 01 min N
078 deg 42 min W
C. NA mb 1401 m
D. 31 kt
E. 298 deg 046 nm
F. 041 deg 042 kt
G. 301 deg 061 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 18 C/ 1533 m
J. 20 C/ 1534 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF304 1016A NOEL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:47:30 Z
This is the Inbound leg to the center. Recon should fly the SE leg and turn to the North before flying inbound on the NE leg. ( Where the highest wind speeds are normally found)
Due to the close proximity to Cuba they may fly a different pattern. As they have been doing for the last few missions.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 10:41 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
..NOEL MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO WORSEN IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Looking at the Models with the deep convection East of Noel, my take is Noel should be a Cat 1 by 11:00 AM on 11/01/07..
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is northbound and is reporting winds from the SSW at 51kts or 58.6 mph.
This position appears to be E to ESE of the center. Based on lat/ long and wind direction.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here's latest path of Recon with Funktop Color scheme off Floater loaded... last spot was about 20mins ago on this map... see the curve on westside of convection, where recon flew threw low center
EDIT: Red line is flight path of HDOB from Recon, using google maps
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 31 2007 11:19 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Looks to me like the deep convection is getting very close to the LLC.If that starts to wrap around than I think we will have a cane.Movement is getting critical,this thing is very close.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Oct 31 2007 11:36 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Well, we just had yet another impressive westward, and now also southwestward expansion of the very deep, silly deep, convection (Large expanse of colder than -70C cloud tops & then some).. and this is now likely fully encircling the LLC, based on coordinates. I think Noel is really getting there. Even by 2AM.
Recon just found 993.1 with winds out of the ENE at 15 MPH, so it is now certain that Noel is back on track tonight, as if there wasn't any doubt.
03:45:00Z 23.43N 78.40W 841.9 mb
(~ 24.86 in Hg) 1,454 meters
(~ 4,770 feet) 993.1 mb
(~ 29.33 in Hg) - From 71° at 13 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 14.9 mph)
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