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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean Invest 91L & Subtropical Atlantic-
      #79558 - Fri Nov 02 2007 08:17 PM

Two more low pressure centers with at least some potential have formed, one of which has already hit NHC's 5:30 TWO. After having gone practically the entire month of October with little "real" development, and already starting off November with a hurricane, it would be more than interesting should one, or even both of these features develop.


-Caribbean Disturbance-
The tail end of the surface trough associated with Noel has apparently cut off and closed off in the Caribbean today, between Jamaica and Honduras. This feature is now analyzed as a 1007 mb low center along the cut-off trough. Water temperatures are fully supportive and upper-level winds are somewhat supportive for additional development. Proximity to land could be the most significant inhibitor.

-North Atlantic Non-Tropical Low may be acquiring some subtropical characteristics-
Currently centered near 40N 30W, a surface low appears to be closing off and separating from its frontal beginnings. SSTs are within a generally favorable range for subtropical cyclogenesis. Shear within a small area over the surface low is favorable, and generally becoming more favorable over a wider area. Phase diagrams as well as enhanced satellite imagery strongly suggests the potential for a rather long-lived, neutral to slightly warm-cored, symmetrical cyclone meandering out near the Azores for several days.


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allan
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Weekend & week-ahead: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean & Subtropical Atlantic- [Re: cieldumort]
      #79559 - Fri Nov 02 2007 09:54 PM

Bad feeling about this one man, closed circulation, anticyclone... why aren't most models seeing this??
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds20.png

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Weekend & week-ahead: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean & Subtropical Atlantic- [Re: allan]
      #79569 - Sat Nov 03 2007 03:27 AM

I hear ya. It sort of looks as if the models generally think interaction with land and/or the general lack of organization is keeping the Low in the Caribbean unimpressive. Both the NHC & TWC's Dr. Lyons seem to think more of it than the last few model runs.

The models do more to intensify the non-tropical low out in the northern Atlantic, and it is looking better and better. At the current pace, I think it might get put up on NRL sometime Saturday, but so far NHC has not indicated having taken any notice of it.

It's November, and really, both of these should be considered somewhat long-shots against the backdrop of climatology. If it were September I am confident we would already be tracking 91 & 92


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Weekend & week-ahead: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean & Subtropical Atlantic- [Re: allan]
      #79570 - Sat Nov 03 2007 10:48 AM



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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean Invest 91L & Subtropical Atlantic- [Re: cieldumort]
      #79573 - Sat Nov 03 2007 07:50 PM

TWO is stepping up the language this evening -


SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
CABEZAS...NICARAGUA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AND STRENGTHENING SHOULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
TONIGHT...AND THE WEATHER WILL LIKELY WORSEN IN THESE AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE
QUICK ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.


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