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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast
      #79545 - Fri Nov 02 2007 07:33 AM

Hurricane Noel is Moving north Northeast at 18mph, and will eventually transition into extratropical.

In the meantime interests all along the eastern coast will want to watch, especially the Canadian maratimes.



No tropical cyclone advisories are up for the US coastline as it is expected to transition into an extratropical storm in the next day or so, but high winds are possible for Cape Cod and the Northeast US as Noel passes offshore Friday into Saturday.

The closest US approach will be to Cape Cod Saturday afternoon, and landfall in Nova Scotia Overnight into Sunday is likely.

Canadians will want to check the Canadian Hurricane Centre .

More to come later.


Radar Loops
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Northeast Composite Radar
Southeast Composite Radar
Large Miami Radar Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Wakefield/Norfolk, VA Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Dover, DE Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Mt. Holly, NJ Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Upton/NY, NY Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Boston/Cape Cod, MA Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Portland, ME Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Caribou, ME Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Cuban Radar
RAMSDIS closeup rapid visible satellite animation of Noel
Canadian Hurricane Centre
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Noel Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Noel


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Noel (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Noel (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Noel

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Noel
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Noel -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Just in theory - could that happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #79546 - Fri Nov 02 2007 08:33 AM

One of yesterday's NHC maps had Noel possibly hitting Greenland still as a hurricane. Is that really possible?! Could a hurricane really make landfall as far north as Greenland? If not, has one ever made landfall in Newfoundland? What is the northernmost landfall ever recorded for a hurricane?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Just in theory - could that happen? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79547 - Fri Nov 02 2007 09:50 AM

Quote:

One of yesterday's NHC maps had Noel possibly hitting Greenland still as a hurricane. Is that really possible?! Could a hurricane really make landfall as far north as Greenland? If not, has one ever made landfall in Newfoundland? What is the northernmost landfall ever recorded for a hurricane?




Not really, it will be extratropical long before then.

Not sure on the highest lattitude purly tropical landfall, I'm sure someone will chime in, though.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Just in theory - could that happen? [Re: Doombot!]
      #79548 - Fri Nov 02 2007 10:05 AM

I don't think any Hurricane can reach that lattitude before transitioning.. However, I do believe it will take some time for Noel to transition into an extratropical storm.. Folks from Long Island northwards are gonna get beat up by this storm.. I was listening to the weather media online last night and he mentioned if the trough is stronger, then the closer it will get to the USA.. We'll have to see what happens, the Carolinas may actually get a feder band from Noel due to it's large size..I think it's the size of Floyd now.. I may be wrong.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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sailor
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: cape cod 41.68N 70.76W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: MikeC]
      #79549 - Fri Nov 02 2007 10:31 AM

I am not sure we should be worried about Greenland. Its only the local NWS here in Boston that is sounding the alarm The closest this storm gets to the US will be Massachusetts. This storm is going to send at least hurricane gusts to Cape Cod and the NHC doesn't even have a recon scheduled after this afternoon. It's like they don't care about anything north of 28 degrees! Same thing happened with Ernesto. There should be at least tropical storm warning up now

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: sailor]
      #79550 - Fri Nov 02 2007 10:43 AM

There's a perfectly good explaination on why there are no watches and warnings up.. This will be a Noreaster soon, a non tropical low.. They do however have gale/ storm warnings up all along the coastline from North Carolina northwards to Maine. I think the GFDL and HRWMF have the right idea as they did with the northward movement on Noel before it hit Haitti. So far, these models nailed Noel all the way.
One thing to note is tat these models have a 952 MLB Noreaster in a few days. The Superstrom of 2007 was 966 MLB, the Superstorm of 1993 was 960 MLB. If the GFDL and HRWMF are right, the storm may beat both of these Superstorms all together.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: allan]
      #79551 - Fri Nov 02 2007 11:42 AM

The National Hurricane Center does not issue warnings for Nor'easters; that comes from the National Weather Service and/or local sources. You will see on one of the next couple of updates where they hand it off.

Not only will it come close to the Cape, Upper Main is in the crosshairs too.


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blizzardnut
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: 42.3 N 71.7 W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79552 - Fri Nov 02 2007 01:08 PM

It's just possible that if it's cold enough, this could be a good snow maker for the higher summits of the NH and ME White Mountains, and I would not want to be atop Mt Katahdin tomorrow evening (or would I?)
These things have a habit of having a very sharp cutoff to the precip, so we'll see what develops. In any case, there is not a lot of cold air to work with, so probably not a blockbuster, but it will be interesting.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 05 2007 09:21 PM)


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sailor
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: cape cod 41.68N 70.76W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: allan]
      #79553 - Fri Nov 02 2007 05:23 PM

I understand that this storm is BECOMING extratropical. They further discuss that the models indicate this system is moving further to the west. They have the recon etc available to them but choose to call it quites for the weekend. At 5PM this is still a hurricane moving towards its closest US pass.

Issuing gale and storm warnings doesnot get the public's attention here in New England. We get gales all the time at 35knots plus. We will have damage here and the public is not hearing about this storm or the 85MPH winds that may hit the cape. We will watch the buoys and see what we get.

(Inappropriate comments were removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 05 2007 09:25 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: sailor]
      #79554 - Fri Nov 02 2007 05:29 PM

Sailor, unffortunately its not the NHC's decision. It's how our goverment works, the matter switches to the NWS. I agree it would be better for the NHC to do it, but they can't.

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cieldumort
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Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79555 - Fri Nov 02 2007 05:36 PM

Noel is now well into the process of becoming a non-tropical, asymmetrical, "extra-tropical" cyclone. It is not likely that Noel becomes tropical again from this point. As such, Noel will soon no longer be a tropical cyclone by any stretch of the definition. The National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center issues advisories on tropical and subtropical cyclones. The identifier of "extra-tropical" is not meant to convey "more tropical." The local NWSFOs are well-equipped to handle the rest of Noel's forecast as the powerful hurricane-force ET it now is becoming.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: cieldumort]
      #79556 - Fri Nov 02 2007 06:29 PM Attachment (693 downloads)

cieldumort explains it so well up there.. Noel is transitioning! In my opinion, it started the transition this morning as convection weakened and started to look more like a cold core storm. Folks up north will get battered from Long island, NY northwards into Novia Scotia, Canada. I will explain this again about the warnings.. the reason why tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings were NOT issued was because Noel was and still is expected to be extratropical (Noreaster).. If the pressure falls enough, we may get a Superstorm. I still believe extratropical Storm Noel will get a bit closer to Cape Cod, MASS then what the NHC, however, I am in agreement with there latest path.
If you check the attachment, I made a map on "Noreaster Noel"

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Fri Nov 02 2007 06:59 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: allan]
      #79567 - Sat Nov 03 2007 12:39 AM

Noel's long since gone extratropical, but recon is flying a mission in the storm this evening. It's quite the interesting mission, as you don't often see them with transitioning -- yet alone transitioned -- systems. The center is very broad with 976-977mb pressures widespread from 32.5N to 34N in the 71-72W longitude band. Still a warm core at flight-level (640mb) with inner core temps near +9C and outer core temps around +5-6C, so I'm guessing we're seeing a warm seclusion taking place with Noel. This would be in the GFDL/CMC/HWRF camp and somewhat away from the GFS camp from the past couple of days' worth of model runs.

For those curious, the most recent report (0427z) suggests peak surface winds at 75kt with max flight level winds in the 65-70kt range. These max surface winds are well away from the center; southeastern quadrant, 150+ km from the center, somewhat broad but not overly so. All in all, the thermal and wind fields are very much akin to what we'd expect to see with a warm seclusion.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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blizzardnut
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: 42.3 N 71.7 W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: MikeC]
      #79574 - Sun Nov 04 2007 08:14 AM

OK, so here's a question for those who know far more than me about these things... Looking at the observations from western Nova Scotia this AM, I was struck by the rapid warming, then cooling at sites very close to the center. One site, that I believe was within 50 miles of the center, warmed from 10 C at 6 PM to 20 C at midnight, then down to 6 C at 4 AM. Plus, there still looked to be some decent convection right near the center. This sounds to me like ex-Noel still had a warm core. Thoughts?

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: blizzardnut]
      #79575 - Sun Nov 04 2007 12:24 PM

Warm Core... possible. Moving air-wind, being compressed will also warm up.
Also consider. The wind direction at the intervals you listed. An overland wind is normally warmer than an over water wind.
Even though it's November most of the U.S. and Southern Canada hasn't had a marked drop in SOIL temperatures.
(They will this week though!!)

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 04 2007 12:27 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: danielw]
      #79576 - Sun Nov 04 2007 12:59 PM Attachment (601 downloads)

Oops, I hadn't read Clark's post above . So Noel was warm core.

I checked the latest meteogram at CWWE- Western Head, N.S., Canada. It covers the period from 12Z on Saturday to 17Z on Sunday-today.
Two meteorological parameters are slightly obvious.
Temperature at 12Z-Saturday was 9C, dewpoint 5C, wind NE at 22kt gusts to 30kt. Pressure 1026.7mb
Temperature at 03Z-Sunday (last night) was 16C, dewpoint of 15C (nearly 100% rel. humidity), wind SE at 30kt gusts to 40kt. Pressure 985.5mb

See attachment.

So you warmed by wind flow, increase in temperature and humidity. Not to mention the pressure dropped from 1026mb to 985mb in 15 hours. Roughly a 3mb drop per hour. Nearly a typical drop for an approaching Cyclone. I've seen 6 mb per hour drops at coastal stations bordering the GOM.


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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: danielw]
      #79577 - Sun Nov 04 2007 11:30 PM

Noel reads like a healthy warm core tropical cyclone that retained some of its original warm core while becoming frontal, and then proceeded to undergo warm seclusion, which began to dramatically enhance the already present residual warm core from its time of being purely tropical. I've been describing Noel to friends and in other posts as a "Hybrid Hurricane," for lack of a better title.

Stu Ostro has an excellent Noel post up in The Weather Channel's Blog, which strongly suggests the same perspective. Also, here is the Final Information Statement from the CHC, in which they note a peak gust of 112 mph in Meadowbrook.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast [Re: cieldumort]
      #79579 - Mon Nov 05 2007 08:36 PM

Now have 92L 32.9N 36.6W ST2.5/2.5 92L --

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