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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Winding Down
      #79580 - Mon Nov 05 2007 09:54 PM

Friday, November 30th Update
Today marks the end of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This season was somewhat quieter than expected, with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Ed has a wrap-up of everyone's seasonal predictions in his latest blog entry (accessible from the main page). This season will be remembered primarily for two storms, the two category five hurricanes in Dean, which hit Mexico twice, and Felix, which hit Central America. NHC Preliminary Storm Reports for this season are slowly being released here.

We're currently in a La Nina pattern across the tropical Pacific, a pattern that is projected to maintain or slowly weaken through the winter months. Only time will tell as to what impact it will have, if any, upon the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, kicking off 184 days from today. As always, thanks for your support and many great discussions here during this season!

Monday - Nov 12, 8AM EST Update
Weak low pressure area of Invest 93L located near 11.3N 82.3W at 12/12Z drifting west northwest toward the southern coast of Nicaragua. The system is poorly organized with very little convection near the center and development seems unlikely.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located well to the south in the ITCZ near 5N 45W at 12/12Z. The wave is under westerly shear and heading for South America. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin is quiet.
ED

Original Post
Shear is on the increase across the entire Atlantic basin as this season quiets down. A couple of convective flareups in the central Atlantic along 13N - both under moderate to significant shear - nothing really expected from either one. Always the possibility of something cooking in the southwest Caribbean - but nothing is evident on the near term horizon. Non-tropical low well west of the Azores is moving south, but given the shear I don't give it much of a chance to transition. Perhaps we've reached the start of the long Quiet Time.
ED

Edited by Clark (Fri Nov 30 2007 01:15 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: Winding Down [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79581 - Mon Nov 05 2007 10:38 PM

Now have 92L 32.9N 36.6W ST2.5/2.5 92L --

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Winding Down [Re: Old Sailor]
      #79582 - Mon Nov 05 2007 11:37 PM

2.5??? It should at leats be STD 17 am I wrong? I give kudos to Cieldmont.. He caught this one way before we did as well as other storms
I see Olga forming soon.. However, you guys say shear is high but check this out...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...om=&time=-2

A pocket of 5-10 knots just east of 92L.. I would say Anticyclone but it's not clockwise..

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Winding Down [Re: allan]
      #79583 - Tue Nov 06 2007 03:09 AM

Herbert-Poteat technique as applied by SAB just logged in another 2.5/2.5 as of 0545Z. However, I think that while under "normal" circumstances a CI of 2.5 would support subtropical (or tropical) storm intensity (and indeed 92L is likely blowing at or above 35 knots) the application of this technique to 92L simply does not necessarily necessitate the naming of the system yet, as it is arguably still largely a non-tropical gale, and not quite a "standard-enough" subtropical cyclone. For one, it appears to have been overly cold-cored throughout its depth.

Shear over 92L seems to be running an average of 25 knots tonight, plus or minus, which is usually a touch strong for a deeply-stacked non-tropical cyclone to have an easy transition. Higher shear to the west of the center, and lighter shear from the center - east. Convection is certainly healthier to the east. What -could- happen, given that SSTs are generally supportive of more significant subtropical and perhaps even tropical development, would be for the convection currently displaced to the east to keep firing up, further moistening up the atmosphere over the rest of the cyclone and allowing for some more efficient thunderstorm formation to occur, while maybe - and this part would be critical for any real tropical development - maybe creating high pressure aloft. If one or both of these were to happen, then I can see convection closer to, or even within the very center, improving, which would be far more likely to do the trick for 92L before the clock runs out on it.

All of those qualifiers aside, it is very interesting to note that this feature, and the environment it is in, has CIRA's Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product hitting its season peak to-date for TC formation probability in the Subtropical Atlantic. Significantly higher probabilities than when Jerry formed, even.


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Storm Hobbyist
Registered User


Reged: Tue
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Re: Winding Down [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79584 - Tue Nov 06 2007 08:09 AM

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL
BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. - NHC

Looks like the NHC -might- be tracking the next TD or STD soon.

Edited by Storm Hobbyist (Tue Nov 06 2007 08:10 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Winding Down [Re: Storm Hobbyist]
      #79585 - Wed Nov 07 2007 03:46 PM

A case could probably be made for having upgraded 92L already.. but, it would have been a generous call. For several cycles now SAB assigned ST 2.5/2.5 to 92L, however today, the last one came in at only ST 1.5. This actually looks to be more related to 92L having acquired some slight tropical characteristics. In that process, the baroclinic kick, if you will, lessened. Curiously, if this trend continues, 92L may eventually have more chance of becoming a numbered tropical depression than it has had of becoming a named subtropical storm. Stranger things have happened.

Global models generally want to send 92L off on a loop-d-loop south of the Azores. During this event a few of them have been hinting at further enhancement of a shallow to moderate warm core. So, there is some lukewarm model support for this trend to persist long enough for something more significant to happen. A glance at he environment looks to confirm these model projections, but is nothing to bet the farm on.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Winding Down [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79586 - Fri Nov 09 2007 02:41 PM

Excellent recovery 92L has had as it approached and is now traversing the Azores today. ST back up to 2.5/2.5, and this assessment looks very fair as the system is arguably in the healthiest shape it has been thus far, recently had a nearby ship report of about 41 knots, and is clearly subtropical. It is surprising NHC has not mentioned anything about it in the morning TWOs. Nor has NRL put the low back up as an "active system." I can't imagine they would let this feature go away without flagging it for at least a cursory post-season second look.

Down in the Caribbean the ongoing disturbed weather associated with what was formerly Invest 91L, now blended with two or three decaying frontal boundaries and starting to meld with the ITCZ, continues to have some tepid model support for even more impressive regeneration. It would seem that if anything at all starts to come of this in the next few, it would do so about right over or either side of Panama, which could just as easily toss it inland or out into the eastern Pacific, as let it linger over Caribbean waters.


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Winding Down [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79588 - Sun Nov 11 2007 02:26 AM

x-91L/multi-merged being repackaged as 93L last night is actually looking sparky, for November. Given the pattern this season, I would find it hard to believe that the remainder of the year goes without at least one more named system, and while most models thus far scarcely give 93 a chance for anything more than a flash in the pan depression at best, and NHC itself has been speaking even less enthusiastically than that, the environment for 93L has improved rather significantly over the last 4 days, and for the better part of at least the past 24 hours or so it has had a reasonably well-formed surface cyclonic presence. Convection tonight is nothing at all to sneeze at, with some hints of subtle curved banding starting to take shape. I wouldn't put it past this one to earn a number, perhaps even a name, either side of Panama/Costa Rica.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Winding Down [Re: cieldumort]
      #79598 - Tue Nov 27 2007 01:41 PM

From the Sun-Sentinel Today:


Researchers: Hurricane season was milder than forecast
The Associated Press
November 27, 2007

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) _ The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was less active than forecasters thought it would be, with six hurricanes developing instead of the nine predicted, a top weather researcher said Tuesday.

Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical Atlantic made this an average season instead of the above-average year the team expected, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of researcher William Gray's team at Colorado State University.

Cooler temperatures inhibit hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.




Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions for the season are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas. The Atlantic season runs from June 1 to Friday.

This year, Gray's April and June forecasts both predicted 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major. In August, the team lowered that forecast to 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of them major.

Instead, the year produced 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of them major. It's the second straight year the team predicted more hurricanes than actually occurred.


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Winding Down [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79599 - Sat Dec 01 2007 11:19 AM

Not sure this is the appropriate place for this, but. ... Now that hurricane season has "officially" ended, thanks to all of those who make this site possible and generously share their expertise in the field of tropical weather. As always, those of us who aren't experts have learned a lot!

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Winding Down [Re: saluki]
      #79600 - Sat Dec 01 2007 01:48 PM

has anyone noticed today whats going on around 25N/55W? thats starting to look pretty tropical to me

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Winding Down [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79601 - Sat Dec 01 2007 03:56 PM

Things really did wind down in November. We had Noel, a potent hybrid gale over the Azores, and the severed tail of Noel that attempted to pull something off over the course of several days, and at least on two occasions started to come pretty close.. And then, crickets. It's been a shear-lover's paradise.

For the first time in weeks, the Atlantic this weekend does have a feature centered near 25N 55W that could get an Invest tag slapped on it. It has a long way to go to become tropical, however. Currently, the best convection is well-displaced to the east of the center. In fact, the center has been nearly void of deep convection.

What this non-tropical low does have going for it is a relatively favorable shear environment, marginally-supportive SSTs (relative to it's cold core), a favorable water vapor environment, and perhaps some more time out over lukewarm waters without any imminent detrimental interruptions. Something a little interesting for the off-season, if nothing else.


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HanKFranK
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late entry? [Re: cieldumort]
      #79607 - Sat Dec 08 2007 10:39 PM

hmmm...
got us a little out-of-season weirdo east of the islands, trying to work it's way down to the surface. it's got minimal model support, but most do see something... tracking westward across the caribbean this week. that one is worth checking up on occasionally, because westward moving systems in the caribbean in december are something you only see every few decades, based on the climate record we have.
it would be an olga.. we've had one in december before, come to think of it.
HF 0339z09december


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: late entry? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79608 - Sun Dec 09 2007 02:27 AM

Caught my eye, too, HF. Looks to me like it could certainly get up on NRL, should it hold up a little bit longer. An Invest floater is already up on it.

I think it was in December of 2005 (no surprise there) that we had a very healthy tropical wave cross westward across the Caribbean.

TAFB has assigned it an ST 1.5 tonight

Quote:

105 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA..
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ST1.5 WAS ASSIGNED TO A LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 14N TO 23N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA ALONG 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N52W TO 12N63W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.




Speaking of off-season features, that Kona Low which battered the islands the past few days had really acquired a pretty sweet flareup of convection centered over its LLC, for a good while. Rather impressive subtropical cyclone - I saved an image of it available here.


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


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Re: late entry? [Re: cieldumort]
      #79609 - Sun Dec 09 2007 04:54 PM

We now have Invest 94L at 18.8N, 57.6W with 35kt. winds. Very impressive system. If it gets a closed surface low, we could see Sub Tropical Storm Olga or even Tropical Storm Olga, skipping depression stage.



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