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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola
      #79610 - Sun Dec 09 2007 06:51 PM

10:47p ET Update 12/11/07
Olga has transitioned into a Tropical Storm, and is now a 60MPH system moving across Hispaniola. Since it is over land is expected to rapidly weaken, but not before dumping much rain and causing floods over the island, especially Haiti.

After that is is forecast to move into the western caribbean as a depression and eventually dissipate because of heavy shear.

8:45p ET Update 12/10/07

Organization of 94L increased throughout the day and the NHC has just issued a special tropical disturbance statement stating that it has now become Subtropical Storm Olga. This is the first post-season storm since the 2005 season. On its current course, Olga should make landfall over Hispaniola sometime tomorrow. Stay tuned for more.

Original Update
Yes it's nearly the middle of December, but a tropical system may develop from what is being tracked as 94 (a surface trough).

This system is currently located around 550 miles north northeast of Puerto Rico and is moving around 15-20MPH to the west. Water temperature in the area is still warm enough to support a tropical or subtropical storm. The winds and upper level environment is also capable to support it.

Chances for development are still relatively low, but for December even that is much more than usual. This system will need to be watched, if not just for potential rainfall.



More to come soon.

** Note many links are not updating do to it being off season, some graphics may not be updated or using an older image. **
San Juan, PR Radar Loop (Latest Static)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Olga Event Related Links


float17latest.gif stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Olga
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Olga


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Olga (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Olga (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Olga

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Olga
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Olga -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #79612 - Sun Dec 09 2007 08:17 PM

The weather pattern across Florida and the SW north ATLC will be pretty atypical for early-mid December: almost summerlike from a synoptic perspective, albeit with the much lower sun angle and cool shelf water.

Nevertheless, there will be an unusually strong deep layer mean ridge holding sway between 55W and 90W, with it's axis roughly along 28N-30N. This should send 94L generally westward and perhaps a bit south of due W over the next 3-5 days.

As far as the system's intensity is concerned, how much the system spins up will be dependent upon:

1) the evolution of the H25 low/trough with which 94L is currently interacting.
2) Potential interaction with the island of Hispanola in 2-3 days.

I think the main track issue will be how fast and to what extent the deep layer ridge breaks down in the vicinity of 75-80 west during days 4-6. The GFS had been breaking down the ridge faster and to a greater extent than the ECM, (which resulted in a faster cold frontal passage through Florida next weekend), however the last few runs of the GFS had trended decidedly toward the ECM, of which I'm usually a big fan (owing to it's generally superior handling of the H50 height fields over NOAM).

Indeed, an interesting feature to watch during the upcoming week. It has the potential to bring some much needed rain to Florida, however it also has the potential to cause some problems for the GA.


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cieldumort
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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #79613 - Sun Dec 09 2007 08:41 PM

Cyclonic flow continues looking healthiest a good bit above the surface, but today's persistent blowup of somewhat deeper convection seems to be doing a fair job bringing things ever closer to the surface.

NRL has 94L up at 35 knots, but judging from available scatterometer images, it seems as though these gale-force winds are generally confined to a relatively small arc located north and well-away from the center - perhaps also within a few stronger individual storms, arguably making 94L still far more subtropical, at best. (LINK)

It seems reasonable to conclude that 94L will attempt to consolidate some more about its humble LLC, and actually lose that patch of 35 knot winds, at least initially. I would like to see if it develops some deeper central convection during the overnight tonight as it travels over waters that are progressively a little more and more supportive, and brings the radius of maximum winds in a bit more.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #79615 - Sun Dec 09 2007 09:58 PM

The calendar reads December 9th, yet we're able to discuss a tropical-like invest feature in the Atlantic basin? What kind of strange world are we living in?

Anyway, Hovmoller diagrams suggest that this has evolved from the interaction of a tropical wave with an upper-level low in the subtropics about 5 days ago. It has moved progressively westward ever since, gradually becoming more organized and slowly working its way down to the surface. Here's a link to the SSD satellite floater over 94L. There are some similarities with this disturbance to those we saw after the end of the season in 2005, mostly in terms of initial origin and position with respect to an upper low, but they end there.

On satellite imagery, it appears to be fairly well organized, albeit favoring its northern side in terms of convection. This is due to its location with respect to a TUTT cell currently located south of the Mona Passage, aiding in diffluence aloft north of the trough axis but also punching in a bit of dry air south of there.

This evening's QuikSCAT doesn't suggest a surface circulation as of yet; however, a well-defined trough axis does appear. Note that this is a tighter turning of the winds than seen this morning. Also note that the ambiguities seem to do a pretty good job of confirming the choice of wind directions.

SSTs are approximately 27C in the region, particularly below about 24-25N.

What does the future hold for our disturbance? In the short-term, the interplay between the upper low in the Caribbean and the mid-level circulation associated with the disturbance will help determine whether or not the circulation can work its way down to the surface. It is in the most favorable region of an upper low for this type of tropical cyclone development -- the diffluent northeast quadrant, relatively far from the center of the upper low -- but can we get enough of a convective burst to stretch the vorticity and get the circulation to the surface? Given recent history, I would tend to say yes, probably occurring sometime tomorrow. In the longer-term, global models are pretty unanimous in building a strong mid- to upper-level ridge across the southeast US and southwest Atlantic basin. What happens to that upper low -- the various global model solutions from 12Z today have its vorticity merging with that of 94L, which seems somewhat unrealistic -- and how strong that ridge gets will determine the medium-range evolution of this disturbance.

My thinking as of now is that the upper low will slowly slide westward while 94L pivots around its north side between it and the building subtropical ridge, steering the disturbance on a generally westward course. This will tend to limit the diffluence and synoptic-scale forcing atop the disturbance, though it may not matter much if the disturbance can get organized at the surface before this occurs. (Think of it sorta akin to a critical development threshold.) It will be a close call as to whether or not this disturbance stays north of Hispaniola and/or Cuba; my current thinking is that it will do so, but just barely as I don't think the ridge will be quite strong enough to force it on a south of due west course. Ultimately, one of the week's forthcoming eastern US storms should either capture it or tear it to shreds.

Some development is not out of the question from this disturbance -- I'm thinking weak to moderate tropical storm at most. Wind shear will be relatively low, SSTs are relatively warm north of the Greater Antilles, and there is already something there to focus upon for continued organization. A track toward the central Bahamas seems most likely; slightly further north if it develops a tad more, slightly further south of it does not. It's too early to speculate beyond that.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #79616 - Mon Dec 10 2007 02:31 PM

It's half a storm! all amusement aside, it's right on the edge and just a little bit of organizational increase should push it over the top, the most interesting development has been the slight shift/relocation of the LLC to the north. with the center closer to the convection, it certainly improves the odds of a system taking hold, in addition, any further lifting could pull it just north of Puerto Rico. which could keep the circulation intact for a little while longer, giving it a bigger window to develop in.

I'd personally give the system a 50/50 shot of being named, particularly with the development of a well defined LLC.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Bloodstar]
      #79617 - Mon Dec 10 2007 06:38 PM

Another one for the record books! 2007... Season with no reason? lol.... Agree with above posters/mets... Generally westward movement into the NNW Caribbean...I'm curious about the trough coming across the lower 48 this weekend, will it grab some of the tropical moisture from it and pull it north ward into the MUCH needed Florida area? We will see... interesting weekend! It appears as noted in latest SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT..... Upper level winds near Cuba are screaming to the NW.... should keep this system from getting well developed... although i do see a small window for this system to get classified here in the next 12-24 hrs... Time will tell.... Was thinking atleast a TD... possible TS... if the low level center can get its act together..... but tonight i thinkin more of a Sub-Tropical System... seems there were two or so vortice i could track on vis sat this afternoon.... but then a nice blow-up convection there just north of the Virgin Islands this evening... and the very nice outflow on the north side of the system... almost makes one of the healthiest looking systems we had this year, especially in the area the invest is at!

IR Sat

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #79618 - Mon Dec 10 2007 06:43 PM

This is starting to look really close. One can easily make the argument that 94L is nearly as developed now as Gabrielle was when first named, relatively speaking; subtleties still exist. On the other hand, Gabrielle has been a somewhat controversial call - being a highly sheared system, and originally more subtropical in nature - there are plenty who feel her upgrade was a bit premature, if not altogether generous.

Things seem to be right down to the line for the pros tonight. With the expectation that the cyclone is forecast to remain in a marginally favorable environment for less than another 24 hours, the decision to name may not be as easy as was the case with Gabrielle, which was largely expected to enjoy marginally favorable conditions for several (more) days. Nonetheless, 94 has shown a great deal of persistence, and a slow but rather steady improvement has continued basically uninterrupted for about two days and nights now.

The LLC has had a tendency to pull a slight bit northward more and more, towards convective flares, while the system overall continues to track generally westward. It now seems reasonable enough for this set of eyes to conclude that just a few more convective flares with a few more tugs of the LLC should do the trick. One such flareup is underway at present, with some cloud tops cooler than -60 having gone up to the northwest of the LLC. Prior deep bursts have tended to remain due north to northeast, so this really could be the start of that missing ingredient, working up an environment more sufficient. As it is, NRL has had a TCFA up for 94L since at least early this morning.

Future track and intensity of the cyclone are likely further complicated by potential interactions with the mountainous islands along its path. Given the tenacity, I can imagine the LLC doing a bit more jumping, should they get in the way, but this could also seriously disrupt whatever chance it has of strengthening beyond a marginal to mid-range named storm.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #79619 - Mon Dec 10 2007 07:54 PM

94L looks mighty impressive for an unclassified system this evening. Would not be shocked to see an upgrade at 10p. Looks like time is short, though, as it should skirt the northern coast of Puerto Rico before slamming into Hispaniola. My idea from last night about it being able to slide just north of the islands doesn't look like it'll pan out; the ridge is too strong to allow that. For a relatively weak storm, I don't like the odds of surviving a trek across Hispaniola, so I would think we're almost in a "now or never" situation re: classification.

Interesting to look at for December, for sure!

BTW -- my model page is running for 94L, though I generally leave the site's scripts off during the off-season.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #79620 - Mon Dec 10 2007 08:32 PM

Notice that most of all the 00Z this evening have shifted back to the north after the 3 day plots... I'm using a GE product and looks like a general westward movement for the next couple of days... agree with clark that the window appears to be getting smaller with time on this system... although... there is a nice blow-up of convection still on going this evening... should be ineresting to see if it holds and what NHC thinking is... i would expect based on how things went this year... a wait and see... then maybe in the morning a classification... then again... what are the short term effects.... the islands that are in the path... mudslides... so i'm sure if they expect based on what the models show coming up... they may air on the side of caution.... didn't one of this islands have flooding problems this year and lose a lot of lives? I'm curious with some of the models over the us GFS/ECMWF... seems there having a time with this weekend setup, especially over the central and southeast US, if this system that is causing the models to jump around?? I know the jet stream looks to dive across the country... but where will 94L be by saturday/Sunday? NW Carribean?

Food for thought:
0330 PM EST MON 10 DEC 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-010 AMENDMENT

NOTE: (ADDED) TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS...A RESOURCES
PERMITTING LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO A SUSPECT AREA NEAR
HISPANIOLA:
FLIGHT ONE--TEAL 70
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 11/1530Z
D. 18.5N 68.0W
E. 11/1500Z TO 11/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
SEF


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Dec 10 2007 08:36 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79621 - Mon Dec 10 2007 08:48 PM

The narrowing window doesn't matter now -- we've got Subtropical Storm Olga on our hands!

Ding ding ding.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 PM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA. A FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 PM
EST...0300 UTC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/110142.shtml?

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #79622 - Mon Dec 10 2007 09:16 PM

Well, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season lives on, after all.

Olga appears to still be organizing, although the SJU radar shows a circulation that definately warrants classification as a subtropical storm - at a minimum. I'm still a bit cloudy on what the exact difference between a subtropical and a tropical system is, because in the case of Olga, convection exists near/over the LLC, based upon the IR and radar images. Olga shouldn't last more than a day or a day and a half, unless it somehow manages to avoid the islands.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #79623 - Mon Dec 10 2007 09:45 PM

Hugh -- my guess is that it is subtropical rather than tropical due to the wind field, with the strongest winds all to the north of and somewhat removed from the center of circulation. Phase space analyses suggest it is on the cusp of tropical/subtropical, as does the storm's convection and convective organization.

A bit of history...
Since 1950, we have had just 6 storms that formed in December:
Tropical Storm #14 1953
Subtropical Storm #2 1975
Lili 1984
Odette 2003
Peter 2003
Zeta 2005

Four of those six -- ST2, Lili, Peter, and Zeta -- all formed in the subtropics from cut-off lows, largely meandering about for several days. Odette formed south-southeast of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea and moved northeast over Hispaniola, not an uncommon track for late season storms. TS #14, however, is most similar to Olga. It formed east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles on December 7th and moved due west for two days, dissipating as it neared the northern islands on December 9th. It, like Olga, likely had hybrid origins -- probably some merger of a tropical wave and cut-off low. The other analogous storm that comes to mind, albeit one from late November, is Kate from 1985. It is highly, highly unlikely that Olga takes a path (intensity or track) anywhere similar to Kate's, but they share similar genesis locations and modes.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #79624 - Mon Dec 10 2007 10:16 PM

The Subtropical vs. Tropical call with Olga is divining a very thin line. Although some of Olga's deepest convection is now over the surface circulation, a good bit of the strongest sustained winds and yet more deep convection remains removed from the center (at least as of earlier tonight, best NHC can likely tell at this point). Other likely factors in calling Olga subtropical - 1) The convection is still not all that deep, and thus more typical of late season hybrids than "tropical" cyclones 2) As seen on
radar , the potent mid-level circulation is probably still a bit removed from the primary surface circulation, for now - even appears at times as if it will attempt to stage a total coup, as well it should, once they link up, one way or another 3) The feature is still arguably somewhat tied up with the associated ULL, at least to the point of it being a lopsided tropical cyclone, for all practical purposes. It's a hybrid, but clearly very close to legitimately more "tropical," than not.


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SubTS Olga [Re: cieldumort]
      #79625 - Mon Dec 10 2007 11:53 PM Attachment (353 downloads)

11 PM EST Updates:

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLGA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/110232.shtml

***********************
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
1030 PM EST MON DEC 10 2007

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 19N TO 22N E OF 71W

TONIGHT AND TUE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS WITHIN 175 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF OLGA WITH HIGHEST WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT TUE.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OR GREATER WITH HIGHEST SEAS 18 FT.

ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 76W
NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN E SWELL E OF BAHAMAS AND 7 TO 10 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
FROM 25N TO 28N AND S OF 28N W OF 76W
NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
N OF 28N
NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF OLGA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 23N E OF 72W...SPREADING W.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shmrn.php?mz=amz080

The upper image is the JSL enhancement. The RED areas are indicators of higher intensity convection.

As evidenced by the lower image, or RGB enhancement.
Lightning strikes (bright white dots) indicating convection and an intensifying system.




Edited by danielw (Tue Dec 11 2007 12:05 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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2007 Season With NO Reason [Re: danielw]
      #79626 - Tue Dec 11 2007 12:28 AM

Graphic frrom the NWS Of the various watches and warnings in place at this time. 1202AM EST

Lower Right hand RED is a Tropical Storm Warning for STS Olga.

The other various Colder... Colors are for Winter Weather Watches, Warnings and Advisories.

Including this Chilling Civil Emergency Message from NWS Tulsa
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 PM CST MON DEC 10 2007

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TULSA
AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

SOME INTERSECTIONS MAY NOT YET HAVE TEMPORARY FOUR WAY STOP SIGNS.

CALL 911 FOR LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCIES ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT HANG UP IF YOU CALL, YOUR CALL WILL BE ANSWERED.

THE TULSA POLICE DEPARTMENT IS ON OPERATION SLICK STREETS. IF YOU HAVE A NON INJURY ACCIDENT, DO NOT CALL 911. THE POLICE WILL NOT RESPOND.

ALL HOSPITALS EXCEPT THE OSU MEDICAL CENTER AND HILLCREST MEDICAL CENTER ARE OPERATING ON BACK UP POWER.
AEP-PSO HAS PRIORITIZED RESTORING POWER TO HOSPITALS FIRST.

IT COULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE POWER TO BE RESTORED TO ALL
HOMES.

DO NOT SEEK SHELTER FROM THE COLD AT AREA HOSPITALS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CEMTSA&max=61

Nearly the same type Messages we hear after a Hurricane Landfall.~danielw


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BillD
User


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Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason [Re: danielw]
      #79627 - Tue Dec 11 2007 10:51 PM

The balancing act between sub-tropical and tropical has tipped to the tropical side. Also recon is reporting higher winds, although the center is onshore now, top winds are up near 60 mph.

Bill

P.S. what is up with the website?


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason [Re: BillD]
      #79628 - Wed Dec 12 2007 02:28 PM

Anyone care to speculate on the possibility of this being picked up by the UL trough coming to Florida on Saturday? I am seeing more and more bend in the models. I guess the main question is whether it will hold together long enough to BE anything to get picked up. It would NOT be cool to have a TS in south or central Florida this weekend (I haven't started my shopping yet ), BUT we do really need some rain.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Olga loops and recurves? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #79629 - Wed Dec 12 2007 03:52 PM

The newer models are showing that.. if it manages to stay together it can be your typical late November storm in mid-December..

It's going fast now but down the road there is enough pull on the frontal boundaries to tug at her and stop her from crashing into Mexico..

Haven't heard much feed back here and looking for some thoughts.

Thanks.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Olga loops and recurves? [Re: LoisCane]
      #79630 - Wed Dec 12 2007 08:58 PM

Been kinda tough to navigate here the past couple of days -- think there were some server issues that have since been fixed -- but alas, no biggie.

Olga looks like it'll have some of its moisture entrained into a coastal nor'easter expected to develop this weekend, but it looks somewhat unlikely that the storm itself will be entirely entrained into the coastal low. Shear is on the upswing and the environment is fairly subsident in nature ahead of it, neither of which really support persistent convective development. With the NHC's comments at 10a and 4p to that regard, that'd spell the end of Olga as a classified system; from a more practical standpoint, it'd eventually spell the end of a closed circulation.

I think we'll see the storm's circulation hold on for another day or two, intermittently developing convection (particularly just to the east and northeast of the center in a more favorable environment for it), before starting to dissipate as it slows down near the Yucatan Channel. From there, it will likely sit, awaiting the developing coastal system on Saturday. Not an overly high chance it maintains itself as a classified entity and manages to get picked up entirely by the coming system, IMO.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #79631 - Fri Dec 14 2007 09:47 AM

olga certainly does not want to quit yet. in looking at some shear maps this morning it looks as if shear has decreased a bit in the area and there are some storms trying to fire up again around the center. last night you had an occasional burst of convection and then it disappeared. with the shear a bit lower this morning and with those storms firing up, this may be a legitimate shot at trying to regenerate. lets see what happens over the next several hours. alos, the waters aren't that warm, but they are warm enough to at least aid tropical storm force systems. not expecting anything too strong to develop but certainly nor ruling out regeneration. some development will actually be a good thing so that south/central florida can get a much better soaking to help the drought.

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