Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Olga Remnants Approaching Florida
      #79637 - Sun Dec 16 2007 01:19 AM

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

7AM Update
The core of the remnants moved north of Orlando, through Lake County, parts of Seminole, and is moving into Volusia county, still very strong weather associated with it. Tornadoes have been spotted in the interim. It looks to be heading east northeast and should move over the Deland area, and then Daytona and then out to sea within several hours.

Original Update
The remnants of tropical storm Olga are in the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the Florida Peninsula, still maintaining a bit of convection, enough vorticity in the air to spawn tornadoes, so it's worth of mention here.

Tornado Watches are out for much of north western Florida.

The approximate center is around 27.4N 84.2W and has a good pressure gradient moving the winds up (along with a front) to keep this an interesting storm to watch as it moves closer to Florida. With the colder air to the north, and this tropical airmass moving in, things are very ripe for severe weather, especially in northwest Florida.

Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Southeast Radar Composite Loop
Olga Remnants Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Olga


stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Olga (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Olga (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Olga

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Olga
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Olga -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Edited by John C (Mon Dec 24 2007 10:12 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #79638 - Sun Dec 16 2007 01:35 AM

I think you mean "Tornado Watch" lol. However, this appears to look like a sheared Tropical Storm, I'm probably gonna get hit with severe weather in a few hours from now. Olga really impressed me, it stayed intact and even kept a strong low level swirl, guess that explains "The Season With No Reason". What a weird season and that should be it!
There's now been some hype on Olga and the secondary low emerging into a Perfect Storm, interesting....
I can tell you this, the models and forecasts are completely wrong, the secondary low formed well to the southeast of where the models formed it and it's stronger, the primary low is weaker then predicted and is west of where the models had put it by now. We can only use the radar to see whats going on, also, the rain and snow line was "forecasted" to be well north of NYC by now, it hasn't even crossed there area yet.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
one last hybrid [Re: allan]
      #79641 - Tue Dec 25 2007 09:42 PM

cut off low out in the central atlantic is forecast by GFS and euro to linger south of the azores and maybe drift southwestward. that looks like a reasonable setup for an out-of-season storm originating in that area at this time of year. it's an upper low w/ surface trough right now, and should form a closed deep-layer low before long, maybe until around the new year. GFS doesn't show a warm-core transition, though, and suggests it will try to elongate like a frontal trough as the upper cold low weakens. given the latitude (25-30N) it isn't impossible, but a long shot at this point for sure.
merry christmas everybody.
HF 0242z26december


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: one last hybrid [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79642 - Fri Dec 28 2007 09:56 AM

Can someone tell me why the NHC is ignoring this feature to the northwest??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Looks Subtropical to me... this season never gives up lol, it's like a weaker version of 2005.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: one last hybrid [Re: allan]
      #79643 - Fri Dec 28 2007 03:36 PM

The feature HF and Allan have both now referred to is clearly "getting there" - it's a little surprising that an Invest tag isn't already up on this one. Up until this morning it appeared to be in the process of establishing a cold front, but since then it has taken on much less of a frontal appearance, and more of a classic symmetrical one. Phase diagrams have suggested that by tomorrow it may have become at least marginally warm-cored. What it has in symmetry however, it still lacks in convection, especially near and within the center, so that forecast might be a little bullish, at least initially.

As far as its future is concerned, it now appears to be heading westward, and staying far-enough south to continue traveling over SSTs in the 23-24+ C range. In some ways it is a little like pre-Olga, but with more frontal beginnings. 12Z runs nearly unanimously send it WSW or SW and weaken it substantially by next Wednesday, while over 25-26C waters, but unsurprisingly the CMC pretty much makes it a tropical storm, and keeps it heading west over the 23-25C range.

TAFB only had this to say about it at 1PM today

A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 26N38W
TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A ROPE CLOUD DEFINES THIS
TROUGH ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC
SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/281750.shtml?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: one last hybrid [Re: allan]
      #79644 - Fri Dec 28 2007 03:37 PM

Northwest of what? I assume that you mean the system in the east central Atlantic. From the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion: "A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW FROM A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 26N38W
TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A ROPE CLOUD DEFINES THIS
TROUGH ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC
SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 75 NM
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N."

The system is still very much a cold core low, and SSTs in the area are around 22 to 23C. It has been moving more east than south in the past day or so. If it were to get nudged quite a bit to the south it might stand a chance to transition - but the likelyhood seems very slim at this time.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #79645 - Fri Dec 28 2007 08:39 PM

SSD is now tracking the cutoff low we've been discussing recently: ( Invest "90L" - should actually have been 95L, but they fixed it later)

28/2345 UTC 25.9N 38.2W ST1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


NRL will probably have it up soon enough.

7PM TWD

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OF INTEREST IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N38W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. QUIKSCAT WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK TRAILING TROUGH. THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE
BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN
OCCLUDED LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK
AS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG
UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/290006.shtml?


Edited by cieldumort (Sat Dec 29 2007 02:24 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida [Re: cieldumort]
      #79646 - Fri Dec 28 2007 10:54 PM

Still an interesting system considering the time of year. Although it had been stationary for awhile, GFS tracks it west southwest under the influence of the east Atlantic ridge for a couple of days before washing it out. SSTs now up to about 24C but movement will take the surface low into increasing southwesterly shear ahead of a mostly mid to upper level trough. Convection around the center was impressive a few hours ago but has since been on the wane as the upper level low and weak surface low have decoupled.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
One Last storm? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79647 - Sat Dec 29 2007 01:03 AM

The final chapter of the 2007 Season with No Reason.

Anyone in the 500nm radius of that Monster has my thoughts and prayers. I hope they stay away, too!

For some strange reason. I checked the Water Vapor image on Floater One tonight. ( Being a night person I usually check the RGB for lightning first.)

The following two images have been reduced about 25% so the clarity lacks abit more than the sat pic.

9 hours difference between the two shots.
Notice the Eye Feature near the middle of the pic.
The WV image was the only image enhancement showing the EYE feature.

First pic is from Dec 28th 1945Z- 245pm EST Friday
Second pic is from Dec 29 0445Z- 1145pm EST Friday

Also included are the (time sensitive) links to the images.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007362_1945wv.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007363_0445wv.jpg

Edited by danielw (Sat Dec 29 2007 01:17 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: One Last storm? [Re: danielw]
      #79648 - Sat Dec 29 2007 01:20 AM

Apparently the WV image makes this storm look worse than it is. Eye-like feature and 35 kt winds??
Hmmm, extratropical or subtropical? STS
Ed, Clark, or HF ?

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SAT DEC 29 2007
.WARNINGS.
...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.LOW NEAR 26N38W 1008 MB DRIFTING N. WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 35 KT SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 27N38W 1008 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND
150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 35 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N38W 1008 MB. LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: One Last storm? [Re: danielw]
      #79650 - Sat Dec 29 2007 01:27 AM

Invest's eye-like feature is very noticeable only in the water vapor images, as the system is quite moist in the mid to upper levels, but lacking any deep convection over the center of circulation. At the surface, the cyclonic flow is still a fair bit displaced from the mid-upper level low. Something to watch for overnight that may now be getting underway - deep convection firing up within the very mean center of circulation, and thus transition from cold core to warm core would then likely be starting. For now, it is still more characteristic of a cold-cored occluded low with gale-force winds closer to the baroclinic kick, than anywhere else.



Adding the most recent Herbert-Poteat analysis from SSD
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/0545 UTC 26.2N 38.6W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Dec 29 2007 02:22 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: One Last storm? [Re: cieldumort]
      #79651 - Sat Dec 29 2007 05:42 AM

Recent IR and WV imagery shows the system becoming better organised, with some convection now completely wrapping around the centre, further supported by the first vis image today. FSU phase analysis shows the system may be acquiring a warm core. Imagery shows a possibly drift to the N or NW, but a general motion to the W or SW is forecast. NRL still dont have the system up as yet tho.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 13 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 10395

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center