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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st
      #79665 - Tue Jan 01 2008 10:29 AM

And this year is yet another year, after two relatively inactive years (for US landfalls) anyway, will we have another? Hopefully so.

2007 was a very active year despite the lack of landfalls, a December Storm, two landfalling Category 5 systems in Mexico and Central America, and a general west west west motion. Hurricane Humberto, a last minute hurricane, made landfall southwest of Port Arthur, Texas, and was the only landfalling US hurricane of the season.

There was a post season storm, Olga, that crossed Puerto Rico, and fell apart when eventually the remnants entered the gulf and over Florida causing a few Tornadoes.

Dean and Felix were the monsters of the season, never before have two Category 5 systems made landfall as Category five in a single year. Dean pushed west, causing trouble for Jamaica, and then eventually making landfall in the southeastern Yucatan, and again near Tampico. Felix was a westward bound storm that managed to strike Honduras and Nicaragua.

Other systems caused havoc in Haiti with landslides, and more. 2007 was by no means a quiet season, but for the US it seemed like it.

May 2008 remain another inactive year for the states, and hopefully the rest of the basin as well. Although we may have another "slow" year this year (however there are some indications that it may be much more active), it only takes one system to buck the trend. Hurricane Andrew happened in an otherwise very slow season back in 1992.

The official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on June 1st, the Eastern Pacific starts on May 15th. We'll be watching as usual and we hope this year remains quiet. The focus here will remain reporting on as much solid information as possible, keeping the "Wishcasting" and speculation to a minimum, and attempts to focus more facts.

Thanks to all who donated in 2007, we nearly broke even on costs this year.

Have a great and wonderful new year!

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jan 05 2008 06:16 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: MikeC]
      #79674 - Wed Jan 09 2008 08:24 PM

Just a heads up to the Caribbean Discussion from this afternoon. The GFS is forecasting a cyclone to develop in the area of 25N 55W over the next few days.

Now it gets really weird. This is forecast to be a hybrid-hybrid. Warm Core system in the low levels and Cold Core system in the upper levels. ( Sounds like a Hail producer to me ).

Here's the excerpt from the Discussion and a link to follow the next few day's Discussions.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
212 PM EST WED JAN 09 2008

...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AT MID LEVELS...A LOW NEAR 25N 55W
SUPPORTS A TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH 36-48 HRS. BUT BY 60-84 HRS IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENS. AT LOW
LEVELS THIS TROUGH INDUCED AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 55N...WITH A
CLOSED LOW TO FORM ALONG THIS AXIS. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN FAVORS A
WARM CORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS IT RETAINS ITS
COLD CORE CHARACTERISTICS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MESO VORTICES ARE FORMING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND
SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE CARIBBEAN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS ONE OF THESE VORTICES NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...WHILE ANOTHER MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. MODEL
ANALYSIS SHOW THESE PERTURBATIONS AT 700 HPA...ARE THEY ARE TO
EMBED ALONG A NARROW TROUGH THAT MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N-14N BY MID CYCLE. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25M. BUT...AFTER 30-36 HRS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION
MOST LIKELY WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN FRENCH AND WINDWARD ISLES BETWEEN 36-84
HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10-15MM.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html


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cieldumort
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Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: danielw]
      #79676 - Thu Jan 10 2008 12:29 AM

Been watching the pair of ULLs that have been connecting to the surface here for a few days, myself.

Recent scat passes reveal a well-defined inverted V surface wind, with cloud motion suggesting some areas of mesovortices perhaps even down to around 925mb, or so.

Looks a good bit like pre-pre-Olga (pre-95L) tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to see 90L up there within the next day or two. A warm core at the lower levels with a remaining cold core above is fairly standard fare with many subtropical cyclones. There definitely looks to be an increasing number of them over this decade.

SSTs are running 23-25 near the trof axis. With a decent cold core remaining above, this feature could well be on its way to beefing up deeper convection about the developing center of circulation. Wind shear is still high - and is most probably its greatest impediment. However, shear is also coming down some more now. This is a fairly robust situation overall for some kind of subtropical development, nameable, or not...


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HanKFranK
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off-season stuff [Re: cieldumort]
      #79677 - Thu Jan 10 2008 06:23 PM

there's a bit more convection with this one, and a more clear anticyclone aloft. we've had olga and that almost-subtropical cyclone at the new year so far... can't make it two weeks without something trying to develop out there it seems.
i don't give this one any better odds than the last. it will have to really make a convincing case for being classified, since the NHC is probably getting plenty of static over naming hybrids that really are subtropical storms but that usually are way out to sea and at odd times of the year.
HF 2322z10january


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: off-season stuff [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79679 - Sun Jan 13 2008 12:49 PM

This one should get an A+ for longevity. It's been hanging around for several days. Given lower latitude and 6 months ago, this would be a nerve wracking Low.
Large GOES EAST WV Enhancement

If one or any of the models are correct. We should have cyclogenesis in the Western GOM or Bay of Campeche' in the next 48-72 hours.

Current models are predicting a surface Low to form. Wide area of probability from BOC to Padre Isle,TX area.
(Personally I'm watching the Tampico,MX to Bay of Campeche area).

FL Panhandle and Upper Peninsula residents might want to keep a eye on the GOM this week as there are possibilities of T W O separate Low pressure area forming in the GOM.

Earlier model runs have the first Low tracking toward the FL Big Bend Area. With the subsequent Low tracking near/ over the Mouth of the Mississippi River toward the Western Panhandle.

Latest model run has some conflict with the run 24 hours earlier. Earlier run was indicating surface subfreezing temperatures north of the 31N latitude.
Present 00Z and 06Z runs aren't indicating subfreezing temperatures at all near the surface.


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cieldumort
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Re: off-season stuff [Re: danielw]
      #79681 - Sun Jan 13 2008 02:05 PM


Invest Floater 1 is now up on the feature out in the central Atlantic (link). Looks more than a little wanting, but has probably been running a range of T .5 to ST 1.5 over the past two or three days. It has certainly been another interesting post-season anomaly, although guessing by the combination of increasing shear and decreasing SSTs, the window for pulling anything more off looks to be closing.


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Rabbit
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Re: off-season stuff [Re: cieldumort]
      #79711 - Thu Mar 06 2008 11:57 AM

possible subtropical low around 28N/37W

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Bloodstar
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ST Low? [Re: Rabbit]
      #79712 - Thu Mar 06 2008 12:04 PM

Yep, I saw that myself.

It's an interesting little storm, but unless something changes it's probably not going to amount to much (though the models say it could be a very weak warm core system in a couple of days). Water temps are only 23 - 24, so unless there's some intensely cold air aloft, there won't be much to build from.

Ah well, just a reminder that things could pop up unexpectedly.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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cieldumort
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Re: ST Low? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #79713 - Fri Mar 07 2008 12:31 AM

This is becoming a more interesting feature to watch. I went to sleep last night and dreamt that I awoke to finding it had an Invest tag slapped on it overnight, so if my powers of clairvoyance are intact lol.

I think that the low is still showing clear signs of being having been undergoing warm seclusion. It's still quite frontal in nature. However, the parent ULL has certainly about cut off, and the fronts are becoming less obvious, with time. The most recent QuikSCAT pass looks remarkably symmetrical, with winds arguably sustained up to gale force near the center. Taken together with SSTs of around 67-69 F, all things considered, I think that enough cold air aloft exists for at least a little more transition into something that resembles a more classic-looking hybrid, but the process, if it does occur, will probably be a little slow, and the window might be small.

Floater 2


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danielwAdministrator
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2008 Hurricane Season [Re: cieldumort]
      #79728 - Mon Mar 24 2008 01:26 AM

We now have less than 10 weeks until the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.

Please take this as a reminder and begin to plan your work. Just in case you have to work your plan, should a Hurricane Watch or Warning be issued for your area this year.

Awaiting the Colorado State forecast update from Dr. Gray and his team. I'm sure that the weather anomalies that we have seen since January 1st will add to the mix for this year's Season.

The anomalies I'm referring to are the abundance of record and near-record snowfall accumulations, along the Canadian-U.S. Border States. And the extremely high deviation in the numbers of February Tornadoes. And lately the record rainfall, and near record river crests in the Missouri-Illinois areas.

Not to mention the Record High Temperatures in Southern Texass over the last 10-14 days. Breaking records as far back as 1929.

Good possibility of an interesting Season. But then all Seasons have a 50/ 50 chance of being bad. Right?

Don't forget to check your local area for the Hurricane Tax Free purchase dates this year.


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danielwAdministrator
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Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: danielw]
      #79730 - Mon Mar 24 2008 11:10 PM

While the Gulf of Mexico- GOM sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a small part of the equation for Tropical Cyclone development. The current SSTs seem to be a bit or two above the norm.
Below are the SSTs on or about March 20th for the years 2005 through 2008. The SSTs for 2008 are a lot warmer in the NW Caribbean and the GOM Loop Current areas.
Edit: The images below would seem to indicate a warming of the GOM SSTs. However, peer review indicates that the Temperature Scale and coloring of the SSTs have changed over the last 3 years.
Where 25C would have been a light orange in 2005, it is now a deeper orange. Suggestive of warmer SSTs.~danielw


All of the photos are from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/index.html
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/index.html

2005


2006


2007


2008


Edited by danielw (Sun Mar 30 2008 06:23 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: danielw]
      #79731 - Tue Mar 25 2008 12:07 AM

Quite interesting. A few other graphics that show the same high SSTs:


Here is a movie of the last week or so of SSTs from NRL:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/sst2.watl.jsmovie.html

(nice that the NRL SSTs are back online - was down most of last year)

And Rutgers SST from the 19th:

http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/show/?fil...79.0248.n17.jpg

(main ref: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0 )


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cieldumort
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Re: Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: danielw]
      #79733 - Tue Mar 25 2008 08:29 PM

Might have to reconsider my own estimate of how the 2008 season turns out. That fetch of warm SSTs coming up from the Caribbean may be providing more than we are all bargaining for.

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Valandil
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Re: Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: danielw]
      #79734 - Wed Mar 26 2008 05:23 AM

Hi all (Happy new year and so on ... )

It sure looks impressive on the pictures you posted. But if you compare the scales carefully you will notice quite an off-set. I only compared two pictures the one of 2005 and the one of 2008.

2005: the orange tone starts at around 27°C

2008: the orange tone starts at 25°C

This off-set of around 2°C makes it look very dramatic while in fact it probably is not that bad. I'm not saying that SSTs are lower than average since i did not look at the numbers themselfs. But be carefull when looking at these pictures and compare their scales carefully.

Vala


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: Valandil]
      #79735 - Wed Mar 26 2008 10:43 PM

Excellent catch. Even between 2007 and 2008, the same temperature value is represented by a different color - the offset in 2008 is toward the warmer hues by about 2.5C. In simple terms, when correcting for this error in color scaling, the SSTs for 2008 are just about the same as for 2007, i.e., no true warming in 2008.
ED


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cchsweatherman
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Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: MikeC]
      #79738 - Thu Mar 27 2008 06:35 PM

Based upon the current conditions exisiting throughout the Atlantic basin, it looks quite ominous for the upcoming season. At this time, sea surface temperatures are above average all throughout the basin, excluding a small remote area off the GA coast, the SAL remains practically nonexistent as there is unusually high moisture content in the atmosphere over the Central Atlantic and off Africa, and we may enter hurricane season in a transition period between La Nina and El Nino. In fact, we may actually have seen La Nina peak about two months ago and signs indicate that La Nina has begun weakening. From what I remember, some bad hurricane seasons have occurred when we have undergone such a transition.

But, as weather has always taught us, only time will tell how the elements come together. We need to be preparing our plans for the upcoming season now so that we may be ready for whatever Mother Nature may have in store for us.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: Valandil]
      #79739 - Sat Mar 29 2008 12:57 AM

After seeing Valandil's comment, I went back and did a comparison of the warmest part of the gulf from 2005 and again from 2008, matching the color to the gradient.

Warmest part in 2005 was about 25.5C
Warmest part in 2008 is about 26.5C

This was done on the March 28th maps for both years from the JH-APL page. So yes, it is warmer, but not by as much as Danny was indicating. Still, a 1C difference is significant...


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Warm SSTs Already??? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #79740 - Sat Mar 29 2008 09:20 PM

I'll take a Ten Yard penalty for False Start on my earlier post.
I failed to check the temperature scales. Shame on me. I should have known that something was amiss due to the drastic changes. Thanks to all for correcting the post.


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danielwAdministrator
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Current SSTs vs April 20,2007 [Re: danielw]
      #79741 - Sat Mar 29 2008 09:52 PM

Current GOM SSTs in Celcius.
27C Extends TO the Yucatan Channel.

Larger Image

GOM SSTs from April20,2007
27C are Scattered in the GOM Loop Current

Larger Image

UNCLASSIFIED Images courtesy of U.S. Navy
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?ocean

The April 20th,2007 graphic is the only available archived Gulf Stream South summary that I could find.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Mar 30 2008 06:15 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Eastern and Middle GOM Buoy Water Temps [Re: danielw]
      #79742 - Sun Mar 30 2008 06:39 AM

42003-26° 02' 00" N 85° 53' 30" W
#YY MM DD hh mm WTMP
2008 03 29 20 49 26.5C

42001-25°54'0" N 89°40'0" W
#YY MM DD hh mm WTMP
2008 03 30 09 50 25.1C

These are the Peak Water Temperatures in the last 24 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Data is from the:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
National Data Buoy Center
1007 Balch Blvd.
Stennis Space Center, MS 39529


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