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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge
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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
95L
      #79667 - Tue Jan 01 2008 10:44 AM

95L is actually moving into weak shear.. take a look
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
It's showing signs of organization to as it heads WSW towards what appears to be 5 -15 knots of wind shear which makes it favorable. Unless that pocket of shear dissapates, A record breaking Arthur is not out of the books!
I'd give it a 40 out of 100 for right now, it has blown up some light convection tightly around the COC, but it needs to get stronger convection before the people really get interested in it again.

(Item was not mentioned on Main Page article - moved to a more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jan 01 2008 11:53 AM)

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 95L [Re: allan]
      #79668 - Tue Jan 01 2008 12:12 PM

System has drawn in a considerable amount of colder air over the past 24 hours as indicated by the stable cloud pattern over almost all of the extratropical low.

Note that a subtropical cyclone in January would not be record setting - see STS #1 in 1978.
ED

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Update [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79669 - Wed Jan 02 2008 08:48 AM

From the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THREATENED TO BECOME A NAMED
SUBTROPICAL STORM DAYS AGO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W
STEERED BY A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE. SAT IMAGES SHOW A HIGHLY
ELONGATED N-S SFC TROUGH AXIS ALONG 47W WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MINIMUM AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
22N...BUT EVEN THIS APPEARS TO BE OPENING. GALES HAVE COME TO AN
END BUT WINDS REMAIN STRONG NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SMALL
PATCH OF CONVECTION DISCUSSED EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED LEAVING A
COMPLETELY SHALLOW SYSTEM."

Visible satellite imagery places the weak low near 23N 49W at 02/12Z under an area of north to northeast shear that will increase to 50 knots by Thursday morning. The remnant system should dissipate in a few days.
ED

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