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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Carribean Predictions
      #79854 - Sun May 25 2008 06:29 PM

Allrighty, now that some models are going with the GFS on this possible system, I'm making a forum on it. Now that I have seen agreement with the NOGAPS, now somewhat the CMC (still getting around there), and the GFS, I have a higher confidence that it might actually form by the end of the week. Right now, nothing can form for a few days due to higher pressures that are coming out in the Western Carribean. However, the moisture from the Pacific side might as some models are showing, swing northeast into the WC and possible form the forst depression or storm of the season. Most of the runs yesterday from the GFS had a hurricane hitting the Yucitan, then heading north into the GOM. The water tempuratures favor strengthening and if the GFS actually verifies, an anticyclone will form over the area. Now if we get an early storm does not mean we will have a hyperactive season, I'm really following the ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean. After 2005 and 2006, anything can happen, could be active or quiet. I'll have more info on the "possible" WC storm as more days pass and we know more about it. Comments anyone???

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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hugo survivor
Unregistered




Re: Carribean Predictions [Re: allan]
      #79862 - Mon May 26 2008 09:29 AM

Oh!!! Yeah Here we go...... Been watching the models since Friday and run to run they have been holding steady. Round up the troops let's get it on....... Maybe someone can call the oil guys in the gulf and let them push oil to $200 this week they will call us crazy but I have a feeling this on will form...

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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Carribean Predictions [Re: hugo survivor]
      #79868 - Mon May 26 2008 10:56 PM

Right now there is still a big "if" that there will even be a storm. But if we see a depression form then I think there will be a strong chance that it could become Arthur and take on similar characteristics in paths and strengths as Alberto and Beryl.

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AprilDriesse
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Re: Carribean Predictions [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #79990 - Sat May 31 2008 04:59 PM

It became TS Arthur.

First storm of the season people!


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Carribean Predictions [Re: AprilDriesse]
      #80008 - Sun Jun 01 2008 07:26 PM

Pretty amazing....

Seat-of-the-pants here - when we see a season that starts like this with Caribbean activity west, this early, it generally forbodes poorly for the Gulf Coast.

Not always - but......

Barf.


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