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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8002 - Wed Jul 16 2003 01:54 PM

Claudette has entered Texas, causing some havoc as a strengthening minimal hurricane that had landfall on the South Texas Coast.

In it's wake, Tropical Depression Five has formed in the central Atlantic, well away from land. This system will strengthen, but will be a fish spinner.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mac]


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8003 - Wed Jul 16 2003 02:10 PM

Well our new TD looks ok on satellite, but not all that impressive. I reckon it may become Danny later today, but dont expect him to be around long. He will be heading over cooler waters soon, so doubt there will be much excitement with this one.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Lonny307
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8004 - Wed Jul 16 2003 02:18 PM

Looks like the depression should make it to Danny. If the system develops before hitting the cooler waters. Also "E" is on the horizon around 10N 28W. Or could that be Danny first????

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8005 - Wed Jul 16 2003 03:19 PM

Could be a tight toss up between the two. We can pretty much count on TD#5 as a Fish@spinner no matter what. Looks like the CV will start to get active before to long. Can't wait to see what happens.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8006 - Wed Jul 16 2003 03:44 PM

Frankly I am not paying too much attention to TD#5 except for the stats of the season.But I am paying more attention to that wave SW of the cape verde islands because it is at low latitud and Claudette formed from a wave at that latitud.Agree that the CV season will begin more early than normal and it will be more active than the past 3 CV seasons.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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GOMF
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8007 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:09 PM

Too low latitude...I would say. We've seen some of these almost crashing against S.America this year. Nevertheless, this one looks more impressive as time goes on. I won't be surprised if it's an Invest before EOD.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8008 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:12 PM

TD#5 should not brother anyone unless your way out there in a boat. As you said Cyc I am more interested in the convection in the CV region. It keeps holding together and TWC even mentioned it, as something we will have to a an eye on. Is there anything out there that could hamper development in the comming days? Let's wait and see!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8009 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:23 PM

System off CV appears to be getting a decent circulation this afternoon looking at the latest NRL sat loop... very impressive... IMO looks almost like a depression right now.... definitely has mid level circulation, not sure what's at the surface... not to low a latitude IMO since its so far east at ~31W.... any kind of WNW track would be fine where its at, if it continues to develop.... stay tuned... beside it's much more interesting than the fish spinner TD5

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8010 - Wed Jul 16 2003 05:47 PM

Yeah, # 6 could be coming soon. Wonder if NRL or TPC will say anything soon about it. The global models this am did not pick up on much at all.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
five and elsewhere
      #8011 - Wed Jul 16 2003 06:05 PM

sure, knock t.d. 5 all you like. personally i like to look at tropical systems do their thing.. beautiful to watch. when they're way out there in the ocean, nobody gets hurt. fine by me. that should be our danny boy. think it's probably a little stronger than they're crediting it, but with no nearby obs there isn't much to stand an argument on.
as for the other feature.. well, im not as impressed as some of you. yeah, it looks good, but not great. great would be outside of the ITCZ.. embedded down there it's circulation will tend to be more of a convergence max than a discrete low.
of course, if it was off the ITCZ.. it would be choking a lot worse.
its just a wait and see thing, since no models are really picking up on it.
elsewhere i dont really see anything happening. the wave out ahead is also mostly and ITCZ thing and not showing signs of organization.
HF 2307z16july


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: five and elsewhere
      #8012 - Wed Jul 16 2003 06:18 PM

NHC doesn't even mention the wave in the Outlook at 4PM, that's a tad surprising.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
pacing themselves?
      #8013 - Wed Jul 16 2003 07:00 PM

i dont know.. would like to know what models say but will have to wait.. both look nice tho no one wants to deal with a fish, do they?

unless its fried

come on..want discussion on possibilities for soon to be TD 6 to make it where.. how will five affect six

lets go..
want talk
very hot in miami

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Kevin--unplugged
Unregistered




Re: five and elsewhere
      #8014 - Wed Jul 16 2003 07:23 PM

Actually, I don't think that the tropical wave nearing/at 30W would be doing much worse outside of the ITCZ. But we will never know. Wjy? It's a rather low amplitude tropical wave.

Like HF said...it's just your typical wait and see type feature. Think that with persistance and a small rise in latitude this one is going to surprise a few people.

This July has been damn impressive so far. Much more than I was expecting.


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Kevin--unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8015 - Wed Jul 16 2003 07:31 PM

Wouldn't bet on tropical depression five affecting the wave southwest of the CV Islands. 5/Danny is moving east, and the TW is moving west.

Not to going to analyze much now because there isn't a whole lot of data to do anything with.


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8016 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:05 PM

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT- EAST ATLANTIC, APPROX 1000 MILES SW OF THE CAPE VERDI ISLANDS. INVEST TO FOLLOW- Dvorak CLASSIFICATION- 1.0-1.5, FYI. Cheers!!

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8017 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:08 PM

http://meteosat.e-technik.uni-ulm.de/meteosat/images/mono/IR/D4/20030716-2100-IR-D4.gif...shortcut to nice picture. Cheers!!

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: pacing themselves?
      #8018 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:16 PM

Hey Lois, The GFS on its 12 UTC run does pick up some activity in that area. In the extended range there is a lot of activity that picks up in the Atlantic as well as into the Caribbean. Looks like a classical wave train heading our way if it verifies in the near future. As Steve just said there is now a Dvorak classification on the area!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8019 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:20 PM

Cool! Something new to watch! Could not get the link to load. Anyone else having that problem?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8020 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:31 PM

Toni, copy it after the word .gif and copy it into your browser and hit go! I got two words stuck ata the end that shouldn't be there. Sorry. BTW, that came from Lou's weather watch. He has good shots of different areas of the Caribbean you don't normally get. Cheers!!

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8021 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:33 PM

That is, don't include ....shortcut

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