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Hurricane Edouard Moving NW in the Central Atlantic Odile in east pacific landfalls in Cabo San Lucas in Baja MX as a Major Hurricane.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 75 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3250 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Still Quiet in the Tropics
      #80141 - Fri Jun 20 2008 07:53 PM

It's getting into the latter portion of June, and the usual pattern of a few waves and clouds moving across the Atlantic, but quickly disorganizing is occurring.

Enjoy the quiet time of June, because in August and September, the peak will occur, and there will be much more activity to keep watch. July is when to begin in Ernest looking at waves that could actually form into something threatening, but usually it does not.

The east Pacific is also pretty quiet right now, and none of the reliable forecasting models are predicting anything for the next week or so. In comparing the other June months since we started watching the tropics closely, this June has been pretty average so far.

Starting in July the atmospheric flows usually start to become slowly more favorable.

In Hurricane History, Florida has been relatively lucky (prior to 2004) with major hurricanes, but there was a 25 year period where a major hit on Florida happened approximately every other year. (1944-69)

Since 1969 until 2004, there have been about 3 major canes to make true landfall in Florida, one of those was Andrew. Quite a difference.

It's a bit early to say if we have entered into another such period, but in 2004 with Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan, and more recently Wilma, we could be off to another long term period of higher and more dangerous activity.

Major Hurricanes to landfall in Florda in the 1944-1969 Period:


Major Hurricanes since 1900 to landfall in Florida:


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #80143 - Sat Jun 21 2008 01:07 PM

While we watch the Caribbean and the tropical wave that is passing through. There has been a persistant area of convection in the South Central GOM.
It's difficult to tell at this point whether it's a trough trying to set up or if there is something other than a thunderstorm complex brewing.

Appears to be centered near 27.8N/ 92.0W, or in that general area.

Easily seen at the bottom of the Weather Channel Tropical Updates as an area of orange to red-orange.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: danielw]
      #80146 - Sat Jun 21 2008 11:28 PM

From the Galveston,TX Saturday Afternoon AFD:
(excerpt)
.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA SEEM MORE LIKELY AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND DISSIPATES. NAM DOES TRY TO SPIN UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AS IT MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AM EXTREMELY SKEPTICAL ATTM THAT THIS WILL COME TO
PASS AS AIRMASS DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE FRONT IS VERY SMALL AND IT
WILL LIKELY UNDERGO RAPID FRONTOLYSIS AFTER MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER POOLED MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY GET
SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. (bold emphasis added~danielw)
(frontolysis-frontal decay or dying~danielw)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=HGX&date=2008-06-21%2020:53:04


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Hurricane29
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: danielw]
      #80148 - Sun Jun 22 2008 11:07 AM

Morning!

Interesting to note if the current SOI trend continues it could be a sign that the atlantic basin may not be to far away from coming to life.With an MJO pulse set to move in about 2 week time frame things might get interesting.

We'll see.


Any futher thoughts on the season as we finish up june ED?


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: Hurricane29]
      #80149 - Sun Jun 22 2008 12:36 PM

Area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche.

Large area of thunderstorms has persisted in the BOC since earlier this morning.
Latest visible satellite courtesy of GHCC at NASA.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Bay of Campeche [Re: danielw]
      #80153 - Sun Jun 22 2008 01:35 PM

Active tropical convective flareup with a weak mid-level circulation near 19N 94W at 22/17Z. Upper level high pressure and westerlies enhancing outflow to the east...but...moderate wind shear below 25N is forecast to become strong by Monday evening. Convective area should weaken as it moves to the east and east northeast and development is not expected.
Cheers,
ED


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dem05
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: danielw]
      #80157 - Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM

The odds of a weak, baroclinically induced type tropical system in the Gulf does not seem very likely right now, but there are interesting features to observe just in case.

If development were to occur, the window for this environment is very small, and I would say it would be north of the Yucatan Pannisula (or eastward) and south of 25N.

Here's the pro side: This is the area that may be seeing the greatest convergence and there has been ample moisture for the last few days. Also, I notice on the shortwave that the low level cloud pattern approaching the Yucatan. There seems to be that classic piling of winds and a signature wind shift on approach to the Yucatan. Note that the low level clounds move quickly to the west across the Caribbean then arc northward and even kink a bit the the NE. Also notice that the cloud motion slows quickly on final approach to the extreme western Cribb. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

The con side: Upper level dynamics...Often, there is a change in such circumastance for weak to moderate lopsided development in the eastern of east central Gulf when there is a cutoff low somewhere around 95W in the Gulf of Mexico. This such area does exist tonight, but here is the caveat. It has to stay there...and it does not seem to be doing that. In fact, it is now gaining on 90W. A digging trough moved across Texas and the ULL appears to be moving E-ENE. This limits any window and probably eliminates the chance for any organization of a surface type feature that is tropical in nature. Likewise, there has been no persistent-deep thunderstom activity of note anywhere in the Gulf.

At this time, I believe Florida will get an additional moisture punch. However, speculation of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be an impossiblitiy at this time. Enjoy the rains, Florida...After all, it is drought catch up time and we have a nice moisture feed...


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cieldumort
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #80158 - Mon Jun 23 2008 03:56 AM

It's been quiet, but not entirely dull. Tropical waves have been unseasonably strong so far the past few weeks. However, baking tropical cyclones requires more than just one of the "right" ingredients to be present. If all it took was "one," anywhere that SSTs are running north of 26c to a depth of fifty meters or more would be spinning out a new TC every week, and as we know, this does not happen.

Shear has turned horribly unfavorable in the Atlantic basin, post-Arthur. Since then, anytime there has been a even a hint of a disturbance forming the "daggers of death at 30,000 feet" have ripped them to bits in short order. Several intrusions of dry, stable air back into much of the basin haven't offered much help to would-be Invests, either. All-in-all, the typical hostile conditions for this time of year do prevail.

I am giving some consideration to recent FSUMM5 runs, which have suggested that an eastern Pacific system forms and runs nnwd, which might make one think it could follow the same route that Alma took before her remnants helped jump over into the Caribbean to help form Arthur. Indeed a new low pressure center appears now to be forming in the vicinity of 90W 7.5N, and steering currents suggest that it could conceivably travel north instead of west, given at least a temporary weakness in the area. However, of all of the other major models which grow a TC out of that region at all within the next 7 days, it is pretty much the outlier in driving it northward, with the rest driving it decidedly west, of course.

Another, perhaps even less viable candidate for slow development, is the latest ITCZ mess south of 10N between about 30W and 45W. At least if it breaks north before running into South America.. and spins out a decent LLCC... there might be some argument made by those who get to do so to slap an Invest tag on it.

Writing about the viability, or really the lack thereof, of these two features, especially at this time of year, doesn't amount to much more than wave mongering. Should the disturbance in the far eastern pacific develop further, and I suspect that it very well might be the next named system out there, it still doesn't have much support to become another one of those once in a crazy blue moon basin jumpers. And that disturbance within the ITCZ is about to run into South America, or navigate more daggers of death, regardless of ever getting even a little bit organized.

Neat things to watch. Little at all to worry about right now.


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scottsvb
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: cieldumort]
      #80159 - Mon Jun 23 2008 11:17 AM

There is nothing much to note in the tropics right now. Alot of strong waves of low pressure come off Africa this time of year and always fizzle out in the far eastern atlantic. Right now, the best chance will be any kind of old frontal boundry that sags into Gulf or off the Bahamas....This along with a tropical wave could enduse something.

The next trough should slide into the eastern gulf on Weds...that along with a tropical wave could spin up a weak area of low pressure. Right now though it will be eigther inland over the panhandle or over N Florida by Friday morning so chances will be slim-none of this having much time to get organized.


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Beach
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: scottsvb]
      #80160 - Mon Jun 23 2008 05:47 PM

Hey Scott,
How about a possible low forming in the block of
15-20N / 80-85W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html


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scottsvb
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: Beach]
      #80161 - Mon Jun 23 2008 11:15 PM

I dont really see anything developing in the next few days. Only slim chance would be the wave merging with a trough of lower pressure in the NE gulf in a day or 2 (weds-thurs).....slim to none!

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danielwAdministrator
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GOM SSTs [Re: scottsvb]
      #80162 - Mon Jun 23 2008 11:46 PM

Bouy 42001-Mid Gulf Buoy is closing the gap on the maximum sea temperature set during the years Aug. 1975 to Dec. 2001.
Previous June record was 32.1C (89.78 F) on June 29th, 1994 at 21Z.
The current June maximum is 31.7C (89.06 F) on June 19th.

2008 06 19 22 50 50 1.0 2.0 0.4 8 5.0 MM 1012.3 29.9 30.7 23.3 MM -1.3 MM
2008 06 19 21 50 140 1.0 2.0 0.4 7 5.1 MM 1012.6 29.7 31.7 22.8 MM -1.5 MM
2008 06 19 20 50 MM 0.0 1.0 0.3 8 4.8 MM 1013.2 29.6 30.9 21.9 MM -0.8 MM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001&unit=M&tz=STN
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/climatic/42001.pdf
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/42001.txt

Maximum Sea Temperature during the period of record, 1975 to 2001, was 33.1 (91.58 F) on July 22, 1996 at 21Z.


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lawgator1
Unregistered




Re: GOM SSTs [Re: danielw]
      #80165 - Tue Jun 24 2008 03:20 PM

Quote:

Buoy 42001-Mid Gulf Buoy is closing the gap on the maximum sea temperature set during the years Aug. 1975 to Dec. 2001.
Previous June record was 32.1C (89.78 F) on June 29th, 1994 at 21Z.
The current June maximum is 31.7C (89.06 F) on June 19th.
Maximum Sea Temperature during the period of record, 1975 to 2001, was 33.1 (91.58 F) on July 22, 1996 at 21Z.





Daniel, if the seas are trending warmer for this season, and all other factors being equal to other years, do you think that this makes it more likely that the number of storms would be higher, that the intensity of storms would be higher, or both?

Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 25 2008 12:28 PM)


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islandtime
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Re: GOM SSTs [Re: Unregistered User]
      #80166 - Tue Jun 24 2008 04:39 PM

I noticed during the 2005 and 2006 seasons that water temps seemed to be higher than I had ever noticed before. We know what happened those years. I had gone back several years on buoy's 42040, 42001and 42003 looking at the SST's. The 2005 and 2006 seasons were easily the highest I found.

I would love to see a chart comparing the high SST's to hurricane strength and frequency.

On June 17, 2005 the Mid Gulf buoy had a reading of 33.6C (92.48F).

YYYY MM DD hh BAR ATMP WTMP
2005 6 17 21 1010.2 29.4 33.6

June 2006's highest temps

YYYY MM DD hh ATMP WTMP
2006 6 28 23 30 32.4
2006 6 28 21 30.7 32.1
2006 6 27 23 29.5 32.1
2006 6 28 22 30.9 32
2006 6 28 20 29.5 31.9

Edited by islandtime (Tue Jun 24 2008 04:42 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: GOM SSTs [Re: islandtime]
      #80167 - Tue Jun 24 2008 09:06 PM

Like the last few runs of the NAM... looks like some much needed tropical moisture is on the way towards the northern gulf of mexico? water temps today along panama city beach, very WARM. upper 80's.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/index_slp_m_loop.shtml 18Z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml 12Z

(Edited for off-topic material)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 24 2008 10:46 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: GOM SSTs [Re: Unregistered User]
      #80173 - Wed Jun 25 2008 12:43 PM

Quote:

Daniel, if the seas are trending warmer for this season, and all other factors being equal to other years, do you think that this makes it more likely that the number of storms would be higher, that the intensity of storms would be higher, or both?




Warmer SSTs could lead to more intense Tropical Cyclones. Emphasis on 'could'.
There is some certainty on the intensification(s) of Tropical Cyclones over warm core eddies and the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. The most recent references being Katrina and Rita of the 2005 season.

Watching the SSTs provides subtle indications of where a storm 'might' intensify in the GOM.
Another of the SST parameters is the depth of the warm waters. I believe they call it the 26 C isotherm.
I'll try to find some links.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: GOM SSTs [Re: danielw]
      #80177 - Thu Jun 26 2008 01:38 PM

Think your looking for these...

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

Click under Daily Maps for sections.

the navy has some better ones, with longer archives. I'll look for the links.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cieldumort
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #80184 - Sat Jun 28 2008 03:59 AM

Yet another unseasonably-impressive wave in the vicinity of 10N 35W tonight, with what may be the makings of a new LLCC embedded generally within a flare-up of some respectable convection. Furthermore, this development is centered within a much larger area of notable low to mid-level cyclonic turning, and within a reasonably moist airmass. Plus, the most recent QuikSCAT pass clearly showed the existence of a tight little surface circulation associated with this wave.

It has been one wave after another a few weeks now. Usually this time of year, these waves hit a serious wall of pain and suffering long before even having the chance to as much as glimmer the entrance into the eastern Caribbean, let alone survive that historic graveyard, but this one appears to be picking up some gradual latitude, all while traversing an environment less hostile than has been the case recently.

RAMSDIS has got a nice Floater up on it over here. (Loop). Regardless of its prospects, this one is something extra neat to watch as we note that since Arthur, the Atlantic basin has still been as quiet as it should be for so early in a season.

Looking ahead, some of the better longer-range model runs continue to hint at an actual CV-type system popping up almost right from the shooter, along about 120-180 hours out. Given the strength and frequency of the waves thus far, come early July this would be extremely rare, but not entirely without precedent; and time frame-wise, to have the Atlantic light up a week or two out from when the eastern east Pac does so, is a familiar-enough theme.


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DarleneCane
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: cieldumort]
      #80186 - Sat Jun 28 2008 05:18 PM

Still quiet in the tropics but this wave that is in discussion seems to be firing up on the loop that was provided from Ramsdis.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

It's straddling the boundary of the SAL and facing shear up ahead but it somehow manages to maintain what seems to be some sort of center and this blow up would look to be about the center of the wave. An interesting development if it maintains itself over the next few hours.


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allan
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: DarleneCane]
      #80194 - Mon Jun 30 2008 10:41 AM

With the MJO pulse in the atlantic, I find the 5 models that are in agreement with our first CV storm reasonable. Shear should relax and it's possible with all the time it has it could become a strong storm. the GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, and EURO show a weak TS in a few days traveling across the Atlantic, the track is uncertain but most models keep it as south as Dean (2007) and Ivan (2004). Also if the High keeps put and stays strong enough, a recurvature is less likely, but not impossible. It's just something to keep an eye on.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: allan]
      #80195 - Mon Jun 30 2008 12:25 PM

SST is just marginally warm- besides, this time of the year the Saharan air layer presents itself literally pulling the plug on precepitation. It makes for dirty cars in south Florida. That wave presents itself pretty well on the map- but can it traverse in the open waters and become an item of interest next week? Stay tuned.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LoisCane
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #80196 - Mon Jun 30 2008 12:50 PM

The wave currently over Mali that hasn't come off is intense.

As for the dust.. hoping it misses South Florida.. that's one strong dust storm moving
this way:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

A few models develop the wave as well as a system in the GOM so with two different
models showing development..there might be more than color on the sats.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: LoisCane]
      #80197 - Mon Jun 30 2008 02:33 PM

Yeah... the GFS is doing good so far this year, i would say... i like to see how the low coming off africa does in the coming days....

HPC outlined the GOM this morning...

FROM HPC this morning

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIE DOWN INLAND OF THE GULF COAST
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A
POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE 06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN...THIS GENERATED A
NON-FRONTAL SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. PLACED A SURFACE
TROUGH OFFSHORE THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE HASHED OUT WITH NHC DURING
THE DAILY NOON MEDIUM RANGE CALL.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 30 2008 02:36 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #80198 - Mon Jun 30 2008 06:21 PM

Just a reminder to all that forecasts/interpretations/projections/dialogue based solely on forecast models really belong in the Forecast Lounge.
Thanks,
ED


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tropics
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80203 - Tue Jul 01 2008 06:23 AM

Right out of the gates, Invest 92L has been designated for the African wave.

(NHC TWO removed. TWOs are available as a drop-down item from the top of the Main Page as are all other NHC Advisories/Forecasts. These bulletins should not be posted in full - see latest Met Blog for guidance. Also review site rules regarding one-line posts.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 01 2008 10:00 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Invest 92L- July 1 [Re: tropics]
      #80204 - Tue Jul 01 2008 09:27 AM

As mentioned above. We now have an active INVEST in the Atlantic Basin.
New Thread should be posted shortly.
Latest color IR 10.8um satellite photo of the western side of 92L. Photo was taken about 90 minutes ago.



Photo copyright 2008 EUMETSAT


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Steve H1
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Re: Invest 92L- July 1 [Re: danielw]
      #80211 - Tue Jul 01 2008 02:15 PM

Another interesting feature closer to the Caribbean is a low pressure circulation at approx. 13 N/54W moving to the WNW and is currently to the SE of the Windwards. This area hjas gained some convection during the last few hours and has an impressive low level circulation. If shear lessens in the Eastern Caribbean, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes an invest. Perhaps the MJO is causing some increase in potential in the Atlantic basin.

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