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The latest model runs suggest Florida and the Southeast coast up to Cape Cod should pay VERY close attention to #Matthew.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 29 (Hermine) , Major: 3995 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 29 (Hermine) Major: 3995 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma)
13.3N 72.8W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 942mb
Moving:
W at 7 mph
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 425
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: allan]
      #80195 - Mon Jun 30 2008 12:25 PM

SST is just marginally warm- besides, this time of the year the Saharan air layer presents itself literally pulling the plug on precepitation. It makes for dirty cars in south Florida. That wave presents itself pretty well on the map- but can it traverse in the open waters and become an item of interest next week? Stay tuned.

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________2016 Forecast: 14/7/4________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1235
Loc: South Florida
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #80196 - Mon Jun 30 2008 12:50 PM

The wave currently over Mali that hasn't come off is intense.

As for the dust.. hoping it misses South Florida.. that's one strong dust storm moving
this way:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

A few models develop the wave as well as a system in the GOM so with two different
models showing development..there might be more than color on the sats.

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: LoisCane]
      #80197 - Mon Jun 30 2008 02:33 PM

Yeah... the GFS is doing good so far this year, i would say... i like to see how the low coming off africa does in the coming days....

HPC outlined the GOM this morning...

FROM HPC this morning

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIE DOWN INLAND OF THE GULF COAST
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A
POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE 06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN...THIS GENERATED A
NON-FRONTAL SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. PLACED A SURFACE
TROUGH OFFSHORE THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE HASHED OUT WITH NHC DURING
THE DAILY NOON MEDIUM RANGE CALL.

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 30 2008 02:36 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2550
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #80198 - Mon Jun 30 2008 06:21 PM

Just a reminder to all that forecasts/interpretations/projections/dialogue based solely on forecast models really belong in the Forecast Lounge.
Thanks,
ED


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tropics
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80203 - Tue Jul 01 2008 06:23 AM

Right out of the gates, Invest 92L has been designated for the African wave.

(NHC TWO removed. TWOs are available as a drop-down item from the top of the Main Page as are all other NHC Advisories/Forecasts. These bulletins should not be posted in full - see latest Met Blog for guidance. Also review site rules regarding one-line posts.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 01 2008 10:00 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Invest 92L- July 1 [Re: tropics]
      #80204 - Tue Jul 01 2008 09:27 AM

As mentioned above. We now have an active INVEST in the Atlantic Basin.
New Thread should be posted shortly.
Latest color IR 10.8um satellite photo of the western side of 92L. Photo was taken about 90 minutes ago.



Photo copyright 2008 EUMETSAT


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Invest 92L- July 1 [Re: danielw]
      #80211 - Tue Jul 01 2008 02:15 PM

Another interesting feature closer to the Caribbean is a low pressure circulation at approx. 13 N/54W moving to the WNW and is currently to the SE of the Windwards. This area hjas gained some convection during the last few hours and has an impressive low level circulation. If shear lessens in the Eastern Caribbean, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes an invest. Perhaps the MJO is causing some increase in potential in the Atlantic basin.

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