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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today
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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
Western GOM today?
      #80249 - Fri Jul 04 2008 06:42 PM

Interesting fire of convection in the Western GOM today - what's your take?

(Post moved to the proper Forum - and please review the site rules regarding one-line posts. Please read the Forum descriptions before you post. Note that CFHC is not a Chat Room. The Storm Forum is limited to 'Discussion about current Tropical Cyclones and potential development areas (Invests).'

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 05 2008 04:06 AM)

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M.A.
Weather Guru


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Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Western GOM today? [Re: BayCoGator]
      #80252 - Sat Jul 05 2008 12:20 AM

I do see a small circulation just SE of the Tex/ Mex border. Convection is rapidily deminishing though. Even if the convection was still flaring up, its moving pretty quickly to the NE.

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Western GOM today? [Re: BayCoGator]
      #80254 - Sat Jul 05 2008 04:26 AM

There is a mid/upper-level low over south/southwest Texas. No surface reflection of any consequence currently exists, and upper level winds are prohibitively strong for tropical cyclone development over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Upper-level divergence aloft east of northern Mexico is helping to fan the flames of convection, particularly of daytime showers and thunderstorms, over the northwestern gulf. This activity is now waning with the loss of daytime heating.

For now, in the western ATL, about the only area to watch is the western Caribbean, with about one in two hundred odds of a tropical cyclone forming there within the next 48 hours. Some marked improvement in the upper-level winds to even marginally favorable and/or a significant surface low forming would need to occur before the western Gulf can be looked at for potential tropical cyclogeneis.

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