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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80362 - Wed Jul 09 2008 11:19 AM

Ed, Correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't The CLIPER5 a statistical model based on previous years data, specifically 1956 through 1995, with factors such as initial motion, day of the year and max surface winds compared to storms with similar parameters, over the years, without any other dynamics? This probably belongs in A/T but, it does relate to your post.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The CLIPER Forecast Model
      #80374 - Wed Jul 09 2008 03:57 PM

From Wikipedia:

CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model.

Cheers,
ED


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