Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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With 94L trending so much further south than Bertha, when should we look for the poleward movement? I know the SST's are more conducive for development on 94's current path but what is the shear forcast for the near future. One last question and I'll go back to lurking - - For the past few years we have heard a lot about Saharan Dust but not so much this year. Is there a correllation between the absence of dust and the early wave train in the CV region? Thanks
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Think it's more a lack of shear.
A lot of things all coming together to help kick off the CV season early.
Quality of waves coming of Africa for one.
Position of the waves.. usually this time of year (and in June) they are still low, low and get caught in the or they crash into Africa.
Spacing of waves, just far enough apart for each to try and develop.
Movement west, forward speed has been slow and steady. Often they shoot off too fast and out run their circulation. Note..a little worried on this way having that problem but this wave seems more like a hybrid wave.
Warm water relatively. Even a few degrees makes a big difference in that region with a good wave rolling off that already has a low pressure system attached and comes off spinning as we say.
Dust... funny thing with dust. Too much can kill it if there is another mitigating factor but sometimes I think a little dust is good. And, the dust storms this year seems to break up easily as the waves crash into them. Some people hold small particles of dust can actually help pull a storm together. The jury is out.
NOTE: This new wave has brought out all the biggies on the board and just for that reason alone it compels us to watch this wave as it is entering a region where it will affect someone .. islands earlier, US Coast possibly later.
Season begins if you ask me.
Bertha might have been a rarity but the Atlantic Season is open and not just for fishing.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Sophie
Unregistered
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I looked at the satellite this morning and noticed some circulation off the florida coast....I am unsure if this is remnants of the passing front or if this indeed something to watch. SST are ripe for something to develop, if this is something to watch out for. I know that sometimes things do develop off the coast of Fl. I remember in 2005 such said thing happend and passed right over us in Mayport. Dumped alot of rain.
Anyone else care to fill me in as to what I may be seeing off the coat of Fl?
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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First vis sat loops of 94L appears, to these amateur eyes anyway, to have decent circulation. I know the thunder storm activity has decreased but certainly appears to have a closed circulation. Isn't that enough to be termed a depression? :?:
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote:
I looked at the satellite this morning and noticed some circulation off the florida coast....I am unsure if this is remnants of the passing front or if this indeed something to watch. SST are ripe for something to develop, if this is something to watch out for.
An upper-level low is centered off the east coasts of Florida and Georgia. This feature is in the upper-levels, with next to nothing at all down near the surface, less an associated trof cutting across the middle of the state from SW to NE. Really nothing at all to work off of at the moment, but Florida can probably expect to see some more storminess today from coast to coast.
While SSTs in that region are supportive of genesis, one can almost toss out looking at SSTs as any indication of whether or not an area, itself, is "ripe" for development. Warm core cyclone formation is dictated much more by what is happening above the water, than below.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote:
First vis sat loops of 94L appears, to these amateur eyes anyway, to have decent circulation. I know the thunder storm activity has decreased but certainly appears to have a closed circulation. Isn't that enough to be termed a depression? :?:
At this time, 94L's surface circulation, while obvious, is also uneven, and oblong. Furthermore, 94 has been seriously lacking deep convection since last night's burst gave up the ghost. For these reasons, 94L does not qualify as a tropical depression, but its prospects are still good for further development over the course of the next few days
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Re: 94L, You are correct, the prospects appear good. In fact it seems the system is beginning the transition now. I see a feeder system to the south, tapping into the , and one to the SW where some cooler tops are beginning to form. There is also moisture streaming in from the NE. The band of TStorms on the north of the apparent COC is prominent. Not the prettiest picture, but I have seen worse classified. I think this is of high probability for eventual classification (with 24 hrs.)
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doug
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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With Bertha still lurking and soon to be on the move out, with 94L, and with other large thunderstorm complexes over Africa, this is certainly looking to be a lengthy Cape Verde season. This does not suggest that it will be an overly above active season although things are getting off to a quick start. As far as 94L, the models keep suggesting that this will possibly impact the islands, the Caribbean islands, and who knows what after. It is still way too early to know if these areas will be affected, but the indications are that if this feature does re-curve, it will get a lot further west than Bertha got and it is also further south which would put land areas at a potentially higher risk. Just looking at some views of 94L it seems to have some good circulation, but is lacking storms near a broad center of circulation? Plenty of time to watch as we know models change all the time. Everyone should have supplies already and with all of the media outlets and websites to be able to track things, no one should be caught off guard.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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No argument in the expectation of 94L most likely becoming a TD within 48 hours, and perhaps as early as later today.
Near term (over the next 48 hours) there are some obstacles which could hold 94L back from becoming more than a low-end TS.. in the near term.. (over the next 48 hours)... and probably will most have to do with the dry air which exists just to the W-NW-N of the system, dry air that has already been a little entrained into the broader circulation when the overnight convective burst went out.
What exists now is a banding ring of convection around the northern and southern halves. Within this ring, dry air is squelching any significant convection from growing back over the feeble LLC. Eventually, as the embryonic cyclone continues to produce yet more convection, this dry air should slowly mix out, but this might not happen soon enough, as the eastern Caribbean awaits, which could prove to be a harsh blend of unfortunate timing. Time will tell. Odds favor 94L beating this and coming out the winner, however.
On some of the upsides, 94L has an apparent anticyclone aloft, with outflow fairly well established all around. Shear remains low, and SSTs continue to go up along its future path over the next several days.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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This system (94L) needs concentrated T-Storms near the COC for this or any system to be classified... I dont see this happening until at least Tuesday if this does develop at all. I think in a weird way...this is more of a Midlevel circulation...and even though there is a LLC...its lacking the Mositure in the LLevels..(its pretty dry).
My little feature I been watching is now near 11.5N and 63W racing W behind a trough out near 66W...small and compact but lacking SW winds due to its 25mph forward speed with a strong high N of Puerto Rico. When this gets S of Jamaica later Tuesday night..it should slow some and give this more of a posibility...still 3/10 chance.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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It is interesting to me that the model went from multi-day, multi-run consistency for development of 94L...for a weeks worth of runs for that matter...and then all at once last night's 00Z run abandoned the idea almost entirely, leaving only an open wave to pass harmlessly into the Caribbean.
That strikes me suspiciously as some kind of data ingest and/or assimilation errors being fed into the model. The 06Z run continued that no development idea.
The went south and weaker, but that is understandable because the is initialized/parameterized off the data; perhaps another clue the that has been dealt some odd data for processing.
It should be noted, however, that the ECM has not really been too happy about this system, for about the last 3 day's worth of runs. It did have it 4 and 5 days back, more robustly, but since has been paltry at best.
Currently, there is a fairly obvious cyclonic curl to the convective debris/showers of 94L. I don't see any overwhelmingly negative factors for development. The deep layer shear analysis has a general easterly component at all levels; and given that 94L is in fact moving west means that here storm relative shear is actually quite low. That said, with amply warm water and decent capacity for instantiating anticyclonic outflow above any convective concentrations that get going near the core, this should have an opportunity to develop. Interestingly, the last 1 hour of loop shows a rather obvious banded feature on the northern semi-circle, with cooling cloud tops.
It is important to note that even though the models did exceptionally well sniffing out Bertha prior to her birth, that does not necessarily mean they will all handle every situation with the same result. Sometimes the models will be vague about development and we wind up with a major hurricane, such as Felix (2007).
An ending idea to this... If a deeper system gets going, it may in fact end up more around the NE Windwards as opposed to cutting straight west in the Caribbean.
John
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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
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Here's a doppler radar loop out of Bermuda http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp
Very well defined and healthy looking system. Most of the precip. appears to be on the left side.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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No question now,94L is really starting to spin.You can really see it on the last 2-3 frames.Outflow is looking good,low shear,high SST's,yea I think we got a live one.This is just way to early for these eastern storms.Maybe I should move to Ohio for the next few months . 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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The 2 pm EST models for 94L (with the exception of the rather odd-looking ) are fairly consistent in taking whatever 94 L decides to become just to the south of Hispaniola in a few days, taking a largely west of WNW track. I am recollecting a couple of storms from last year that just drove head-long into the Yucatan. If those models are correct on 94L, I suppose we might see a repeat of that. Anyone know if there is anything to nudge it north towards the end of the week, onto a track into the Gulf?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Satellite estimates for 94L are at (SSD / t#s) are 2.0 now, which is probably enough to start considering it a candidate for a depression, possibly later tonight if it holds like this for a few hours.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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I agree. It looks very organized on vis sat. If thunder storm activity can increase (key word, if) then it appears to have potential to really take off. Definately worth watching!! 
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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[quote) ...I am recollecting a couple of storms from last year that just drove head-long into the Yucatan. If those models are correct on 94L, I suppose we might see a repeat of that. Anyone know if there is anything to nudge it north towards the end of the week, onto a track into the Gulf?
One year is different from another and you can not depend on storms taking the same track.
The steering current determine where a storm will go.
For Example, below are steering current that applied to Bertha
If you look here you will see the weak steering current from yesterday for Bertha.
CMISS
By today those currents changed to same site
As the large high over texas moves west the current flow/steering can and may well allow for a turn to the north. Depending on how strong 94l is at the time it reaches the area differnet level of steering currents could be in place.
Any speculation at this time is just that....
Edited by CDMOrlando (Mon Jul 14 2008 04:03 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
The 2 pm EST models for 94L (with the exception of the rather odd-looking ) are fairly consistent in taking whatever 94 L decides to become just to the south of Hispaniola in a few days, taking a largely west of WNW track. I am recollecting a couple of storms from last year that just drove head-long into the Yucatan. If those models are correct on 94L, I suppose we might see a repeat of that. Anyone know if there is anything to nudge it north towards the end of the week, onto a track into the Gulf?
It's more likely that the models are minoring out 94L, such that she's more susceptible to the lower tropospheric steering field. If she were a deeper integrated storm, she would probably model her way up N of Hisp.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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At the risk of repeating my 11:06 post, in further review of the visible of 94L at 4:50 p.m. all the factors I noted 6 hours ago still are at work It looks much healthier now. The TStorms to the north have now been wrapped in to the west. A new Tstorm is flaring right on the west boundary of the LLC. new activity can also be seen to develop to the north More importantly all feeder mechanisms are improving. 94L seems to be on its way to further classification.
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doug
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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
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Bertha is hitting Bermuda and 94l is growing and on the march..things are really hopping now.
These Bertha videos were just put out. The winds look very close to hurricane strength to me, and Bermuda is on the "weak" side of the storm.
Hurricane Bertha 14 July 08 2:25pm EST
http://youtube.com/watch?v=yHjf3HrBikw
July 14th 08 5.30pm St George Bermuda
Bertha blowing through
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Gjbv0QmX4qM
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