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Area in W. Carib now up to 40% chance for development, being tracked as Invest 90L. Lots of rain for Florida this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Nate) , Major: 244 (Maria) Florida - Any: 254 (Irma) Major: 254 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> Hurricane History

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Longevity Storms
      #80420 - Sat Jul 12 2008 09:15 PM

Does it seem like Bertha has been around for a long time? Nope - not even close - at least not yet. This evening NHC will issue Bulletin number 40 on Bertha, and if she hangs around for another week she might get up to Bulletin number 70. Here are some others that exceeded 70:

IVAN - Sept, 2004 - 73 (6-hour) bulletins
MARILYN - Sept/Oct, 1995 - 75 bulletins
MITCH - Oct/Nov, 1998 - 76 bulletins
ALBERTO - Aug, 2000 - 78 bulletins
ARLENE - Aug, 1987 - 81 bulletins
KYLE - Sept/Oct, 2002 - 89 bulletins
CARRIE - Sept, 1957 - 91 bulletins (pre-satellite era)
INGA - Sept/Oct, 1969 - 99 bulletins

Finally there was GINGER that lasted a month and had one of the most unusual tracks ever recorded - September 6 to October 5, 1971 - 118 bulletins.

Hurricane Ginger Storm Track (from UNISYS Weather)

Cheers,
ED


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80421 - Sat Jul 12 2008 09:30 PM

How about Hurricane Faith, which made it to the Arctic as a remnant low.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Faith

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Ed in Va]
      #80422 - Sat Jul 12 2008 09:42 PM

Hurricane FAITH - Aug/Sept, 1966 - 69 bulletins issued by the NHC. Almost made the list - it was close.
ED


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


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Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80423 - Sat Jul 12 2008 09:47 PM

It must be pointed out that the cyclones above were all in August, Sept or October... heart of the season storms, as they were. And, based on the current best thinking, there's every reason to believe that Bertha might match or exceed, even those.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Longevity Storms [Re: cieldumort]
      #80424 - Sat Jul 12 2008 10:02 PM

You are correct, she might exceed at least some of those - which is why I prefaced my comment with 'at least not yet'. I started the search at 73 bulletins, but I may have overlooked a couple with numbers in the low 70s since it does take some time to browse through 158 years of data. Bertha might not make the top 10 list, but she still might set a new record for a July storm.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80426 - Sun Jul 13 2008 12:40 AM

I went back to the early records and included all of the storms from the U.S. Weather Bureau era with 70 or more six-hour position points (including a few in the later years that I had missed). Here is the restructured list:

NONAME - Aug/Sept, 1893 - 70
NONAME - June, 1934 - 70
NONAME - Sept, 1947 - 70
DOG - Aug/Sept, 1950 - 70
BEULAH - Sept, 1967 - 70
BERTHA - July, 2008 - 70 (didn't make the top 10, but certainly made the Longevity list)
NONAME - Sept, 1926 - 71
NONAME - Sept, 1936 - 71
FRAN - Aug/Sept, 1996 - 71
NONAME - Aug/Sept, 1930 - 72
EDOUARD - Aug/Sept, 1996 - 73
IVAN - Sept, 2004 - 73
NONAME - Aug, 1915 - 74
NONAME - Aug/Sept, 1906 - 75
DORA - Aug/Sept, 1964 - 75
MARILYN - Sept/Oct, 1995 - 75
MITCH - Oct/Nov, 1998 - 76
ALBERTO - Aug, 2000 - 78
NONAME - Aug/Sept, 1900 - 80
INEZ - Sept/Oct, 1966 - 81
ARLENE - Aug, 1987 - 81
NONAME - Sept/Oct, 1893 - 83
NONAME - Aug, 1899 - 85
KYLE - Sept/Oct, 2002 - 89
CARRIE - Sept, 1957 - 91
INGA - Sept/Oct, 1969 - 99
GINGER - Sept/Oct, 1971 - 118

The record for a 'July only' storm appears to be CLAUDETTE in 1979 with 57 bulletins, however, given the 70 for the storm in June, 1934, I'm not sure of the significance. Note that there was an un-named storm in July/Aug, 1909 with 60. At the other end of the season there was a Nov/Dec storm in 1888 with 63. Bertha 2008 would need to track for an additional 10 full days in order to make the top ten on the list - but I suppose that it could happen.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 20 2008 02:07 PM)


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


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Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80479 - Mon Jul 14 2008 03:19 AM

Interestingly enough, Bertha's been sitting in the same area that both Kyle and Ginger sat and spun around in back in their lifetimes. Also interestingly, Bertha's been about of similar intensity as those storms as well. Of course, the upper level patterns -- and projected patterns -- are not that similar and Bertha should end up out of our hair before we get to 80 or 90 advisories. Still, it is interesting to note some of the similarities that pop up even when not accounting for initial storm motion.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Clark]
      #80554 - Tue Jul 15 2008 04:43 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

...BERTHA NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY...

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Longevity Storms [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #80558 - Tue Jul 15 2008 05:49 PM

The NHC reference was actually to the length of time in a tropical storm intensity or higher for a storm that occurred entirely in the month of July (I.E., July only). That 1916 storm actually only had 51 bulletins issued on it.

The 1909 July/August storm became a TS on July 27th at 06Z and stayed at that intensity for 14.25 days - but Bertha should easily exceed that total as well. I suspect that Bertha's total number of bulletins is going to get very close to 70.
Cheers,
ED


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