Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast

11:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Cristobal has not intensified this evening...in fact, the satellite and radar presentations look rather unhealthy with very limited convection restricted to the southeast quadrant in occasional, non-sustaining bursts. The intensity is being held at 40kts.

Tropical Strom Warning has been discontinued from the Little River inlet southward; all other warnings remain in place.

The forecast philosophy has not changed. Environmental conditions appear favorable for at least modest intensification, despite the system not availing of them. Shear is light, outflow is good, and SST are amply warm enough considering Cristobal's proximity to the Gulf Stream. In about 2 days, the steering field will begin taking on more SW to SSW vectors and Cristobal will likely be accelerated northeastward at those time ranges. The intensity forecast is still taking Cristobal to 55kts, but until we see appreciable improvement in the convective process, this may be generous. The average of the track guidance indicates a general northeast progress in route to the westerlies. This should keep the system close to the Carolina coasts, then passing seawards of the upper Mid Atlantic and southern New England areas. Nonetheless, continued monitoring of Cristobal's progress is still warranted.

John (typhoon_tip)

2:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Recent reconnaissance mission has detected a 44kt flight level wind, which extrapolates to 40mph Tropical Cyclone. Cristobal was named as of 2pm.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from south of Santee River in SC to the NC border with VA, including Pamlico Sound.

Models continue to be rather weak with development expectations, perhaps do to the proximity with land. However, at least for the next 2 days, warm SSTs combined with weak shear, and decent outflow aloft should allow for some gradual strengthening. Cristobal is moving northeast near 7 mph. Steering field, for the time being, remains rather weak. However, in 2-3 days, a trough amplifying in the Great Lakes and eventually northeastern U.S., will strengthen more SW or SSW flow aloft, and this will most like capture the tropical cyclone.

John (typhoon_tip)

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Original Post

Tropical Depression 3 has formed off of the Carolina Coast, a Tropical Storm Warning is up from the Santee River in South Carolina to the North Carolina / Virginia Border.

94L in the Caribbean will continue to be watched.

More to come later...

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