Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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July holds promise for an increasing level of activity during its last eleven days. Bertha, now barely a minimal hurricane, is moving rapidly off to the northeast into the cooler open waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. Bertha will soon be but she certainly was an impressive long-running storm for the month of July and gave us something to monitor for almost two and a half weeks.
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristobal is located about 100 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina near 32.8N 78.3W at 19/18Z moving slowly to the northeast at 7mph with a recently reported central pressure of 1006MB, sustained winds of 35 knots, and recent RECON reports of flight level winds as high as 55 knots. Cristobal is under the influence of some windshear, however, the shear zone is expected to relax somewhat in the next 24 hours. While some additional intensification is likely, Cristobal should remain offshore of the Carolina and Virginia coasts as his northeasterly movement continues.
Invest 94L in the central Caribbean Sea maintains a good convective envelope, but struggles to define a center south of Jamaica - perhaps near 15.5N 78.5W at 19/19Z. The system is still fighting northwesterly windshear as it moves just north of due west at 15 knots. This wind shear is expected to relax in about 18 hours - which could prompt better organization and slow intensification on Sunday. If consolidation does take place, the track would become more west northwesterly. Heavy rainfall over Jamaica should continue tonight and Sunday with heavy rain showers spreading to Grand Cayman Island on Sunday, and the system should affect the central and northern Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 28C (Cristobal) and 29-30C (Invest 94L) are adequate to support additional development of both systems if the windshear abates as expected.
Finally, looking far to the east, a vigorous tropical wave with a low pressure center is located over western Africa near 11N 4W at 19/18Z. This system will move off the west African coast on Monday and its worth monitoring this one next week for potential development.
ED
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