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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Danny, etc
      #8091 - Fri Jul 18 2003 08:31 PM

Danny has made it to minimal hurricane status and is moving northeast to east northeast in the north Atlantic. He is entering cooler waters so his duration as a hurricane may be short-lived, however some of the models suggest that if the storm can survive for the next couple of days it might well entertain us with the 'Alberto Loop' (credits to HF) and by days 4 and 5 the remnant low could be near the current longitude but about 9 or 10 degrees further south in latitude. If he makes it, the system would be moving toward the southwest at that time...and back into warmer waters. Should be interesting to see what eventually happens.

The system to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands seems to be developing (or at least attempting to develop) a weak low-level circulation. Convection is not yet well organized but conditions are nominal (must be a 'space' term) for further development and a Tropical Depression is certainly a possibility over the weekend. At 18/18Z the weak circulation was near 9.3N 38W and at 19/00Z this weak circulation had moved and reformed to 9.8N 39.2W with pressure estimated at 1009 or 1010mb. This movement has slowly lifted the system north of the ITCZ which also gives it a better shot a further development. Its way too soon to tell, but something about this wave suggests a potential for a major system if it ever gets going - certainly worth watching this area over the weekend.

Yet another wave passed through the Caribbean Islands yesterday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea today. The strong convection of yesterday has been on the wane today as the system transverses the 'dry zone' but in two or three days it could flare up again. The early season has been uncommonly busy - with not much imagination, the tropical Atlantic earlier today looked more like September rather than July!
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Edited by CFHC (Fri Jul 18 2003 09:53 PM)


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8092 - Fri Jul 18 2003 08:49 PM

A little off-topic, but we are having the mother of all light shows courtesy of mother nature here in downtown Orlando. Current lightning rate is about 3-5 strikes every couple of seconds. My 2 year old is loving it!

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Danny, etc
      #8093 - Fri Jul 18 2003 09:07 PM

Agree that the wave looks like a player down the road as it has mantained it's structure and as you said ED convection is north of the ITCZ that is better for development.Definitly from Puerto Rico I am watching this one very closely.It will be very interesting to see if what will be left of Danny may regenerate once it makes the loop.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Danny, etc
      #8094 - Fri Jul 18 2003 09:14 PM

Hey guess what? No flooding today in New Orleans! Woo Hoo! We caught a t-storm about an hour ago here. I had to call the kids in from their homerun derby/red hot rules baseball game.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I thnk the tropics are about to get interesting again. I just went and spent about 20 minutes at Bastardi's site to watch the Long Ranger, Point Counterpiont and read today's article. I'm off to the long range models thereafter. This is the gist of what I got from his column and shows today:

1) The two developments in the Western Pacific are a precursor to a global tropical burst. Joe's got a theory on a few day lag between the West Pac, East Pac and then Atlantic. It's nothing to do with the MJO but with pulsing some way involved with the SOI flipping and other factors that only happens in strong trof-splitting years.

2) Last time the NAO went negative, we got Bill, and as it got back toward neutral, we got Claudette. With the latest pulse toward negative, Danny was born. He's hinting at another system before it goes back positive again.

3) 6-10 day teleconnections from the ridge over Japan implies a ridge near the east coast in 6-10 days. That correlates to a strong blocking high in the SE.

4) The first typhoon will go west toward Vietnam. The 2nd is a problem for China, but Joe can't figure out if it's going to come N/NE afterwards and affect Japan. He said it would be a big problem for whereever it ends up, but didn't stress the potential that it becomes a Super Typhoon like he has the last 2 or 3 days.

4) Worries for down the line have switched from the SE Coast to the Gulf because of the potential ridging. Depending on the lattitude it comes across determines if it's a Central American storm or a Yucatan/Mexico/US storm.

To me, all this would be maybe Monday or Tuesday of the week after next. Even the GFS ensembles were showing a trof (mid next week) at 90W. If the following trof amplifies further west, that opens up most of the Gulf depending on other factors and conditions.

All I've got to say is I'm heading to Western NY State (Cuba/Friendship) a week from Wednesday and I better not miss anything.

Steve


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando
Re: Danny, etc
      #8095 - Fri Jul 18 2003 09:16 PM

I agree......the light show here in Orlando has been very cool........

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8096 - Fri Jul 18 2003 09:30 PM

Thank You Ed & credit to HF! I was looking back to far! A light show it was... at work I lost entire phone system, cameras & generator.... a long day

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8097 - Fri Jul 18 2003 10:42 PM

I'm back a few days early, but I know what you mean about the lightning tonight. I live next to Universal Studios, and I decided to walk over to Islands of Adventure tonight just because of all the heat lightning, and I thought they would do the fireworks tonight... but then the rain came. For about an hour there was a really impressive lightning show there.



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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8098 - Fri Jul 18 2003 10:43 PM

Last IR looks pretty tame but the action around the YP looks interesting!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8099 - Fri Jul 18 2003 11:27 PM

Heard this on the local news tonight: 21,000 lightning strikes in a 1.5 hour period in Orange County (Orlando) from 9:00-10:30. All in all, the weather where I was stayed pretty tame, but as lightning displays go, this was in the top 3 of any I've seen in my 30+ years in Florida. Even saw something really out of the ordinary, a green flash of lightning as I sat on my porch...not sure what that was as I had never seen anything like it.

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Now Back to Danny
      #8100 - Fri Jul 18 2003 11:30 PM

Danny has formed an eye tonight and looks about as good as it has looked in his lifetime. NHC is now hinting that he may survive the loop and live another day after traversing the cool waters east of his current location. We may have to wait and see on this one as he may stay in the picture for a bit longerl

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Burst of convection at 97L
      #8101 - Sat Jul 19 2003 07:40 AM

Convection has fired overnight at 97L but will it be only a burst or there is persistance and may develop further?That convection is over the low center now around 11.5n 41w so let's watch the progress of it as it moves slowly west where it will arrive at more warm waters and less easterly shear.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Burst of convection at 97L
      #8102 - Sat Jul 19 2003 10:35 AM

since cycloneye noted it earlier this morning 97L has continued to throw deep convection.. it has a fairly amorphous look, but based on the fact that it has a known broad circulation and is showing less signs of easterly shear.. this is probably going to be a depression in the next 24hrs. it isnt moving very quickly.. maybe w/wnw at 15mph... and has little shear to contend with for probably two days. around day three i think the system will be around the northern leeward islands.. and there may be considerable shear at that time. regardless i'm thinking that the system will develop and then soon encounter more shear than previous storms this season have had to contend with. thats as much as i'm willing to conjure up at this point.
danny's potential to sort of recycle itself is being given at least a little weight in the discussions.. personally i've always liked oddball storms and see some potential here. it may get sheared apart and have to restart from scratch.. but think we'll still be able to track 'danny' at the end of next week.
one other thing has caught my notice.. huge mcc around arkansas dropping south. havent looked at what models are doing with this system, but we could have it festering in the gulf if it holds together.
yeah, only july.. and plenty to talk about. sure beats julys 1999-2001.
HF 1538z19july


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Danny, etc
      #8103 - Sat Jul 19 2003 01:40 PM

The convection E of the islands starting to look classic if it holds together.Thier is a little bit of dry air out front this could be player if it holds for the next 36-48 hrs.The system by all accounts looks like it needs a clasification of some type.Maybe soon. Kevin

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Danny, etc
      #8104 - Sat Jul 19 2003 01:52 PM

OK, I've been patient and let 97L slowly develop without saying any more. Erika's on the way, and she may be nasty!! Check out latest loop. She's deepening nicely now. Cheers!!

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8105 - Sat Jul 19 2003 02:26 PM

Yep I also think she is on her way. The 2pm NHC discussion even spoke rather highly of her

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Danny, etc
      #8106 - Sat Jul 19 2003 02:48 PM

I agree... I noted two days ago that I though it had a good chance to make TD status in a couple of days if it could get just a tad bit farther north... and it looks like its on track to do that.... should be the one to watch during the next week...

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8107 - Sat Jul 19 2003 03:15 PM

Ericka is a depression now Arguebly a tropical storm but i wont say that. The last few loops on infra red indicate a new banding blow up of convection on the northern center wrapping around the west side and weaker bands feeding in from the south with nice outflow starting to develop in most qaudrents. Visibile Shows a filled ragged eye wich argues the point ericka is a TS as i write this. But thats only scence about 10 o clock this morning so i want to see if it percists. The overall storm is looking today the healthiest it has scence well ever. The storm looks like it wants to go all the way and it has the support to do so . The fact the center is at 12n and moving wnw says northern leeward islands purto rico for a first scare / target she of course could continue west, and later plow into the greater antillies its a slim shot. I do not anticipate Ericka to be a carribean system unless she strugles and never does ne thing in wich case all you in texas are gonna have funn. where she goes after the northern islands if she survives is anyone's guess. Shear across the northern islands is forcast to be moderate if she is affected by moderate shear wich would be a worst case scenario she would head further west or possibly do an erin and die and reform further n then continue nw but i dont see or anticipate the upper level low ne of the islands to be near as strong as was the case with erin.

l8r.....



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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Danny, etc
      #8108 - Sat Jul 19 2003 03:44 PM

Well looks as though we have a new TD/Ericka in the Atlantic. Theres no doubt that this is at least a depression, but NHC may hold off on naming it until tomorrow until recon gets there although looking quite healthy now. Shear is a 10 kts or less over the system now and looks to continue through the short term. After about day two things look intresting. Shear with a upper trough is quite strong over the northern/northeastern caribbean. Some models look semi conducive for strengthening, while others look as though this may get ripped to shreads. Would believe that this develops into a strong TS when approaching the northern islands, then holding steady as it encounters the strong shear. Afterwards shear looks to weaken, thus to begin to increase in strength again. Looks like northern windward islands to be in line for this one and staying just south of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Hati. After this is any body's guess but the ridge to the north will be a big player on where it goes next.

Something I left out in extended track and a well written article by ED on the storm forum was that NWS discussions and models progs show a significant cool front moving into eastern U.S., this maybe overdone but certainly something to keep an eye on in the extended period (next week), as this may or may not have an influence on our soon to be new system.

Edited by Joe (Sat Jul 19 2003 04:09 PM)


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Erika?
      #8110 - Sat Jul 19 2003 04:34 PM

NRL has teh future E as nonname. sure looks nice so far

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Lets welcome infant Erika to the Atlantic!
      #8111 - Sat Jul 19 2003 05:05 PM

Looks like we are ready for rapid intensification to a hurricane with Erika. 3 in a row would be really nice....and 5 named storms before August...

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