Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Remnant TD9 Moves into the Yucatan. TS Warnings Have Been Dropped.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 111 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3285 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
18.9N 90.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
Ese at 6 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)
johnnylightning
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Saint Petersburg, FL 27.81N 82.63W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #82151 - Mon Aug 18 2008 08:34 PM

My sister moved to Oregon after getting hit at Port Charlotte by Charlie. She said not to believe any forecasts until Fay had past . Cynical or smart?

--------------------
Semper Fi


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Orlandoman
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: johnnylightning]
      #82160 - Mon Aug 18 2008 08:50 PM

Mike...What is your take on Orlando, Will we get much wind and Rain...I am on the East side of town

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2967
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: Orlandoman]
      #82167 - Mon Aug 18 2008 09:35 PM

Quote:

Mike...What is your take on Orlando, Will we get much wind and Rain...I am on the East side of town




I'm over by Universal, I expect it to be breezy and rainy, maybe a few gusts over Tropical Storm Force, but nothing too bad, assuming things don't change overnight.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay 27.85N 82.63W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #82170 - Mon Aug 18 2008 09:42 PM

do you think Tampa will get anything? 30MPH or 40MPH winds?? Where I live we flood after a good 10 min rain and everyone forgets how to drive so I can't imagine a few hours of rain...

--------------------
~jess~



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida 26.46N 81.80W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: West FL Jess]
      #82175 - Mon Aug 18 2008 10:04 PM

Can anyone shed some light on what we can realistically expect in the S. Fort Myers/Estero area? Local Fox downplays the storm, Local CBS says prepare for possible hurricane conditions. Anyone?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #82180 - Mon Aug 18 2008 10:18 PM

Quote:

Can anyone shed some light on what we can realistically expect in the S. Fort Myers/Estero area? Local Fox downplays the storm, Local CBS says prepare for possible hurricane conditions. Anyone?




I'm not a met by no means, but have been keeping a close watch on Fay. No one at this point really knows what to expect, but expect for the worst. I highly think Fay is capable of moving more then a high Cat 1 Hurricane, no more then a Cat 2. Currently, she looks to be trying to re organize herself again, much more organized then previous positions. She looks to be spinning like a hurricane and looks a lot healthier for hurricane conditions. Expect Fays bands to hit at 12:00am here in Lee County, with Naples being the first hit area. At 8:00am they expect Fay to be directly over us with her eye, meaning don't go outside. Not sure if they'll sound sirens or not. As far as weather, watch for frequent spawns of tornadoes Currently, Miami and Everglades show up for Tornado Warnings on Radar. Watch for Funnel Clouds, and the tornadoes over water. Expect Heavy Wind Gusts and downpours of rain. Frequent Lightning and Thunder. Current Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes is where you can see all of Fay's energy. At the lease prepare for the worst. I know in Miami, some blown transformers caused power to be out, and so expect the power to go out. Careful and be cautious of downed electrical wires, and have lots of bottled water and food prepared as well as a first aid kit, and flashlights handy. When the time comes for the Military or FEMA or your Governor to tell you to go, go. Don't wait, go to a shelter.

Hope this helps in the slightest. This is the best advice I can give to anyone.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #82225 - Tue Aug 19 2008 08:56 AM

Quote:

I predict a Naples landfall as a minimal Cat 1 around 5AM tomorrow.




TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY MAKING LANDFALL AT CAPE ROMANO...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH

I was off by 20 miles and 15 mph, but got the timing just right. Looks like she sucked in too much dry air after that last flurry of convection in Florida Bay and thus never made hurricane status. After seeing only 50 mph winds in the Keys I knew the NHC forecast of Cat 1 wasn't likely. Also should have remembered that Marco Island sticks out into the Gulf and given Fay's track she would hit there BEFORE Naples.

I give the NHC a "B" on this one, considering how sloppy Fay was, with the center constantly relocating and the lack of access to Cuban air space they did a really good job. A touch too aggressive with the strength (which they tend to do as a CYA) and too far NW on the track up until the last 12 hours.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82230 - Tue Aug 19 2008 10:07 AM

We could be in for several days of soggy weather if Fay ends up meandering in North FL and South GA giving us a westerly wind flow off the gulf here in the Tampa Bay area.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #82261 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:17 AM

It appears that Fay has formed an eye while over the land of Florida. Can anyone confirm? I've got several places showing an eye that was forming, and an eye like structure that did form. Is this possible?

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
westcoastfl430
Unregistered




Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #82267 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:41 AM

yeah i was wondering if we were going to get any rain. thus far none here in Parrish. is the eyewall formation due to the trough to the north?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: westcoastfl430]
      #82269 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:46 AM

More than an eye, its the center of circulation. It is just more visible since rainbands have wrapped around it. Fay will hold its TS status for a good while, especially over south florida. The question will be what happens next and where it happens,. Will it stall over water and strengthen? Will it head west into the Gulf again and develope or over land north of the gulf? Big questions with very inconsistent models. It would not be uncommon for Fay to redevelope in the Atl or Gulf. Erin exited north of Tampa as a 40mph TS and almost made it to Cat 2 before hitting again in Pensacola in 95. We still have a bit of watching to do yet. Most models agree on a stall and then westward turn. The question is where.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: pcola]
      #82280 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:10 PM

So you mean to tell me this is not just the eye of her? This is also the center of circulation? This is what is fueling her?

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: pcola]
      #82322 - Tue Aug 19 2008 04:57 PM

An interesting portion of the AFD Tallahassee...

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THROWN US YET ANOTHER CURVE BALL AS THEIR LATEST SOLUTIONS TAKE
FAY INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THIS WEEKEND (AS OPPOSED TO A TRACK
ACROSS SOUTH GA AND SOUTH AL). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RE-
STRENGTHENING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF FAY SURVIVES HER TREKS
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TAKES FAY INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN MS WHILE THE GFS TAKES FAY SLOWLY INLAND AROUND PANAMA
CITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH EITHER SCENARIO WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN...RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ADVERTISING MUCH OF A WIND THREAT...BUT IF
THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY START DOING THIS.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tammster
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: West Palm Beach, FL 26.78N 80.30W
Navigating Florida [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #82331 - Tue Aug 19 2008 05:18 PM

I am completely unsure of what to do....

I have to be in Orlando at 8am for a pretty important conference & I'll be driving from West Palm Beach. My original plan was to take the turnpike & leave around 6 - 6:30. I was hoping that the eye would pass by the turnpike by then and that the backend wouldn't be so bad to drive through.

My husband is trying to convince me to wait until morning but I'm concerned that the storm (which may be a hurricane in the morning) may turn back toward florida more south than what is now forecast (per the 5pm discussion). It seems like it may be worse weather in the morning up that way than it will be tonite.

What are your thoughts on this??? I keep watching the radar willing the eye to move faster but if anything, the storm seems to be stretching out more.

(sorry if this is not the correct forum for this... feel free to move this if appropriate).

Tammy in West Palm Beach


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Tammster]
      #82332 - Tue Aug 19 2008 05:36 PM

That is a very "iffy" question right now. Given the distance of the center of Fay to Orlando...about 82 miles +/- there is not much room for any track shift not to have an impact one way or another. I would stick with the NHC's track but up to 48 hours things may change a lot. In short I don't believe a sooner southward turn will occur but again the "iffy" factor.... Do you have the option of just saying that this conference may just have to be put on hold? Aside from your husbands that is my best advice.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rayboat
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Jupiter Fl. 26.94N 80.14W
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Tammster]
      #82333 - Tue Aug 19 2008 05:37 PM

Make a phone call to your Orlando party and explain your situation to the if you haven't already. There are probably a few other people in the same conundrum. Fay looks to be a Hurricane tomorrow. I would postpone any travel which heads in that direction. If it were in Key West there would be much less of a problem. At any rate be SAFE!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tammster
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: West Palm Beach, FL 26.78N 80.30W
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: rayboat]
      #82338 - Tue Aug 19 2008 05:52 PM

In this case, I'm the only Floridian... everyone else has alledgedly arrived more or less on time since the airport delays weren't awful.

In any case, I have the option of now driving to Pt St Lucie to stay the night. I can then get up early & see what the radar looks like.

I appreciate your input... thanks!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
watchinout
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: rayboat]
      #82340 - Tue Aug 19 2008 05:56 PM

I'm just trying to put 2 and 2 together here but Fay has increased in strength over land made a fairly nice looking eyewall will reenter warm ocean water around midnight spend what looks to be like about 36 hrs. in the Atlantic and possibly hit Florida again around St. Johns or Flagler County. I don't live far from there and i'm wondering how big yall think this storm can get.

That is up in the air....follow the NHC as they update their forecasts...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 19 2008 06:09 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 267
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast [Re: MikeC]
      #82354 - Tue Aug 19 2008 06:57 PM

I just have not seen a substantial easterly component over the last couple of hours. Turn on Lat/Lon on the ssatelitte maps and you will see what I mean.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: watchinout]
      #82356 - Tue Aug 19 2008 07:01 PM

latest GFS wants to bring Fay back into the Gulf....looks like the NHC is hinting at this as well...we could be dealing with this for 5-6 more days, or longer if that happens farther south

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 79922

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center