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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Unregistered User]
      #81507 - Fri Aug 15 2008 04:34 PM

This certainly will go down as an oddity as I cant recall anytime in recent memory where you had a storm that looked very good, but did not have the essential characteristics to not be given a name. As far as what may happen: The models continue to shift until a center is fixed, but the only constant in these models is a turn to the north at some point. Having said that, I dont see the high building in much more before it begins to possibly retract to the east a bit more and create the northward turn. If this 92L does make it to the Gulf, I dont see it getting much further west in my opinion and thus would threaten the easternmost gulf sates as the extreme western location. I think this slow turn will begin sooner rather than later and will threaten Florida in some way. Obviously the key is where the center sets up shop and how much land it interacts with. If it holds its own then you most likely will see fairly impressive strenthening. If it becomes ragged over land, then you may have a sloppy tropical storm impacting Florida.

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Mike V
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami, FL 25.75N 80.23W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #81511 - Fri Aug 15 2008 05:25 PM

I've been in several storms down here in Miami since 59, but one thing stands out with all of them. The birds tend to disappear before a storm comes. I have not seen any song birds since this AM, Plenty of doves and pigeons (don't know why they don't leave, I guess they hunker down), but definitely no songbirds.

Me thinks fay will hit this part of the coast, and I believe it may be a minimal hurricane.

Sorry if that is not scientific enough for the rest of ya (and btw, the info on this site is priceless), but I've just seen these signs too many times.

MV

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Mike V]
      #81514 - Fri Aug 15 2008 06:06 PM

All I know is the 5pm 5-day forecast is NOT something I wanted to see. Ugh. It's got a bullseye right on us here at Charlotte Harbor, and this close to the Charley anniversary, it was not a welcomed sight.

Not wishing it anywhere, but I'm hoping that little black line slides to the west or hooks a hard right to sea.

Guess I know what I'm doing this weekend. Time to get the generator fired up and the boards ready to go.

Ugh.

The only good thing I liked seeing was it running up Cuba's spine. Not good for Cuba, but hopefully it would tear it apart enough to take some of the starch out of it before/if it hits FL.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Kaity
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Mike V]
      #81519 - Fri Aug 15 2008 07:16 PM

I totally agree with you, wildlife is the best thing to tell whats coming, we are in Oldsmar, Tampabay area and the wildlife activity has been seriously decreased. No birds no squirels no lizards and the gators are hunkered down.

We have been having storms off and on for most of the day. LOL Im begining to think, I am solar powered....


I think this one is coming into the Gulf, the one behind it is something to keep an eye on too.

You are right this is the best site to get info from, hubby works for wfla 8, and all the media is hype driven for ratings..... there is no hype here pure fact and stellar veteran experience.


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tampa_looter
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Kaity]
      #81522 - Fri Aug 15 2008 08:19 PM

I dont know. Drew Park tampa here. Squirrels, gators, cats and birds out and being annoying as usual wish they would go into hiding.

I used to work at Reptron in oldsmar


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pope ron paul II
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: tampa_looter]
      #81524 - Fri Aug 15 2008 08:21 PM

This storm has a pretty large axis. Imo, its going to effect tampa/west coast ALOT. Regardless.

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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 12
Loc: Orlando
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: pope ron paul II]
      #81534 - Fri Aug 15 2008 10:13 PM

Quote:

This storm has a pretty large axis. Imo, its going to effect tampa/west coast ALOT. Regardless.




Along those lines, I wonder how large the core, the eye and radius of damaging winds will be as it approaches landfall? My guess is that it has the potential to be relatively large.
If Fay lives through the islands, I suspect that when she finds some open friendly water, some of those areas that have competed for the LLC might consolidate into something a little larger. Watching the observations from the Recon planes as they sampled the various areas of the storm this afternoon, started me thinking about the potential for a larger system if it can survive and stay together. As always, lots of ifs.

A "half full" perspective on a storm like this approaching Florida with an uncertain path;
Everyone needs to pay attention to it. It has only been a couple of years since FL was impacted by a hurricane, yet there is a noticeable level of complacency. Even if there were to be a South Florida landfall, folks there will have the weekend to finish preparations. Not like the 2004 Parade of Hurricanes, where they always showed up on Fridays and Saturdays, so that you had to try to prep during the week, often in the evenings... For those that did prep!

Hopefully people here in Florida will prep like mad this weekend, and then Fay will fall apart. That certainly would not be anything to be disappointed about. All of that prep is still a good investment, and not just for Hurricanes.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: IMTechspec]
      #81536 - Fri Aug 15 2008 10:31 PM

Well, the NHC finally decided to pull the trigger. This is the first time I can remember that they pulled it on a system over Hispanola. Long-range model outputs are extremely disturbing to me... the latest runs move further west than the 5pm forecast, and plant a bullseye on my head, it would seem. Hopefully the storm will move whereever it's going fast enough not to gain significant strength.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Radilman1
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Hugh]
      #81541 - Sat Aug 16 2008 01:02 AM

Based on the 11pm discussion, I think Panama City, Fl is the current bullseye:
"..ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT."


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Radilman1]
      #81543 - Sat Aug 16 2008 01:34 AM

Well, Panama City is not in the clear for sure but there are still many things to play out before there is a really firm track to Fay. This may seem "old" but much of the Gulf Coast (East as well to a degree) needs to watch this system. There are many factors that can/will dictate what happens as to the track and we don't have a long time to watch and to prepare...as with long-tracking systems....Fay is knocking at someones back door now...excuse me while I answer that

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 16 2008 02:56 AM)


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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #81558 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:05 AM

Did the GFDL just move more to the east bringing Fay over the Upper Keys and up the state of Florida. I'm confused I thought that it was further west. I haven't heard much talk about it. Why would it do that? Has intensity forecast of storm changed or the strength of the Low over the US that could pull it sharper to the north? I have always felt the center could go over the upper keys, possibly close to Key Largo making that swing and up through the Everglades though not sure at what exact angle affecting Naples more or the East Coast more.

--------------------
Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: DarleneCane]
      #81559 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:07 AM

The latest run moved quite a bit to the east, I'm not sure if it's just a model screwiness or a general trend right now, that solutions would keep it over water much much less, at least, but it's still suspect while the storm is over land.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: MikeC]
      #81562 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:15 AM

The models will be shifting east and west and back again for the next couple of days.




The LLC is now back over water,let's see if she gains strength,before going over Cuba.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Aug 16 2008 08:24 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: DarleneCane]
      #81563 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:26 AM

Quote:

Did the GFDL just move more to the east bringing Fay over the Upper Keys and up the state of Florida. I'm confused I thought that it was further west. I haven't heard much talk about it. Why would it do that? Has intensity forecast of storm changed or the strength of the Low over the US that could pull it sharper to the north? I have always felt the center could go over the upper keys, possibly close to Key Largo making that swing and up through the Everglades though not sure at what exact angle affecting Naples more or the East Coast more.




I looked into this a bit more, this and the HWCF moved east and judging from the init data looks like a bad run, you can probably ignore this, throw it out the window and wait for the next one.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: MikeC]
      #81565 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:42 AM

My biggest concern is we really won't know where it's going to go or how strong she will get until it leaves Cuba,and by then it will be so very close the S.Florida and the keys.There is reason to believe she could rapidly intensify over the very warm waters between Cuba and S.Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81567 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:44 AM

Hello All,
I haven't posted in quite awhile, usually just content to read everyone's opinion and comments.
Interesting observation overnight is how the center has moved South off the coast of Hisanola and actually is on course toward Jamaca. I suspect a gradual turn to the WNW today and since she's over water, a good amount of intensification.
Everyone from the Keys on up the Florida West coast needs to watch this one.
By this time tomorrow, hopefully the models will come to a concensus on where Fay is headed and the local EOC's can begin
to make the proper preparations and plans.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #81569 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:16 AM

Quote:

Interesting observation overnight is how the center has moved South off the coast of Hisanola and actually is on course toward Jamaca.




I noticed the same thing. The more south she goes the more west the track should shift. However that will also delay her arrival, as with all these system timing is critical.

Also just gotta say that WeatherUndergrounds new "WonderMaps" are awesome, you can see the satellite image overlaid with track data, local weather wind icons, radar and wind field projections, with amazing zoom level detail.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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squirrely
Unregistered




Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: Clark]
      #81574 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:43 AM

Clark, I've noticed you and scottsvb have referred favorably to the ECMWF model but I can't identify it by those initials on the various plots linked to these pages. Which one is it??

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: squirrely]
      #81575 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:45 AM

That also goes by the European, the latest NHC track takes it through Lee County, I know those who went through Charley do not want to hear that, however it also looks like things are still uncertain about the center of Fay, so it could go either way.

The next few days are going to be very difficult.


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Rosy
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Charlotte, NC
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: MikeC]
      #81581 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:10 AM

We certainly don't need another hurricane in Lee County, but I was hoping for some rain. This wait-and-see game is the worst.

--------------------
Survived:

Andrew '92 (Miami)
Charley '04 (Ft. Myers) (& weak side of Frances, Jeanne)
Wilma '05 (Ft. Myers)


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