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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Models [Re: Trekman]
      #81689 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:50 PM

Am I imagining things, or have the models shifted west yet again with the 00Z runs? Now they seem to plant the bullseye back on the panhandle.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 5pm disc said track pulled east [Re: Hugh]
      #81692 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:04 PM

At my age, I'm easily confused. It may have been the 11AM forecast that I looked at at 2PM. The good news is I'm also easily entertained.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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Kaity, Oldsmar
Unregistered




Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: Trekman]
      #81694 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:10 PM

Yeah most people in Tampa/Oldsmar are like there is a storm, its too beautiful for them to pay any mind, furthermore we have had such a "grace" period in history, that they just assume that it will continue.

I take em all seriously. I got a feeling this one is going to impact us, St Pete Clearwater Safetey Harbor Oldsmar Tampa. Even if it lands in Sarasota we are going to feel it in Tampa.

LOL the kids actually want to go to school, and there may not be........

This one is a definate watch for us.


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81696 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:40 PM

Yep, I just noticed the same thing. All the new models, newer than the NHC are well to the west of the NHC and all to the east of the NHC are old, including GFDL.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Models [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #81697 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:45 PM

If the other models also shift, that could mean a very big shift in the forecast (not in a good way for me, in the panhandle). They'll probably wait until the next run to change the forecast for continuity sake, though.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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WilliamC
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: Brooksville, Fl
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81704 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:34 PM

Hugh,
I have been visiting this site for several years, and finally registered today. I don't know enough about a lot of what you, and many of the other knowledgable folks that post here, to have ever offered my two cents. I have though learned a great deal in my time, reading the opinions and observations of the many people that do know what they are talking about. I pose this question to you, as you just made a comment about models shiftling. What sites do you recomend for following the models, and how often are they updated? I know they all vary, especially with a weaker system. I have seen, over the years, people talk about models shifting, but, for example, the Skeetobite page here updates seemingly randomly. I appreciate your time, if you have it to help me out.
Thanks


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Models [Re: WilliamC]
      #81706 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:52 PM

Well now I'm completely confused. The 11pm discussion does not really mention the models shifting... and the forecast track is the same as it was before. In fact, the discussion says the forecast is in agreement with the consensus, which it's not at all based upon the models I'm looking at.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Radilman1
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81707 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:57 PM

I think this forecaster likes the SHIP model -- his track is in line with SHIP's projection

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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81708 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:01 PM

Quote:

Well now I'm completely confused. The 11pm discussion does not really mention the models shifting... and the forecast track is the same as it was before. In fact, the discussion says the forecast is in agreement with the consensus, which it's not at all based upon the models I'm looking at.





Yeah, but if you look at the forecast track, on say Google maps, the 11pm location is once again well south of the prediction. It barely touches that SE corner of Cuba now.

http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2008s6#


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Models [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #81709 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:04 PM

Quote:


Yeah, but if you look at the forecast track, on say Google maps, the 11pm location is once again well south of the prediction. It barely touches that SE corner of Cuba now.
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2008s6#




I'm afraid I don't follow what you're saying...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81710 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:10 PM

There is no reason to change the NHC path... the 2 main models GFS shows just offshore the west coast of florida all the way past clearwater....and the GFDL has now moved closer with a landfall from Ft Myers-Sarasota up just east of Tampa. So they went down the middle of the guidance (as they said)

The tropical models will jump around and are really useless. Main models are the GFDL,GFS,ECMWF, FSU-Super and somewhat the other globals come into account.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Models [Re: scottsvb]
      #81711 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:16 PM

Quote:

There is no reason to change the NHC path... the 2 main models GFS shows just offshore the west coast of florida all the way past clearwater....and the GFDL has now moved closer with a landfall from Ft Myers-Sarasota up just east of Tampa. So they went down the middle of the guidance (as they said)
The tropical models will jump around and are really useless. Main models are the GFDL,GFS,ECMWF, FSU-Super and somewhat the other globals come into account.




The GFDL is nowhere near Tampa on the image I see (8pm ET run). It's an eastern outlier. ALL of the other models are west of the official forecast except for NAM.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81712 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:20 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Yeah, but if you look at the forecast track, on say Google maps, the 11pm location is once again well south of the prediction. It barely touches that SE corner of Cuba now.
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2008s6#




I'm afraid I don't follow what you're saying...




You can click on each location point, and a little baloon will pop up. There's a little orange button, if you click on it, it will show a line giving the predicted path at that time. For instance, click on the third from the end, the 5pm location and when the ballon comes up, click on the orange button, the predicted path will show up. 8pm and 11pm are well south of it.

....

I guess the idea is that it will just turn more radically when it does turn, but even so, that puts it over water, not brushing land the whole way.

Edited by TheOtherRick (Sat Aug 16 2008 11:25 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Models [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #81713 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:27 PM

Quote:

You can click on each location point, and a little baloon will pop up. There's a little orange button, if you click on it, it will show a line giving the predicted path at that time. For instance, click on the third from the end, the 5pm location and when the ballon comes up, click on the orange button, the predicted path will show up. 8pm and 11pm are well south of it.




Ah, thanks... I never knew you could do that! Neat feature. I'm not sure I agree with you in saying that the predicted path is that far off from what happened, but the storm does appear to be moving somewhat south of the forecast.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81714 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:40 PM

Happy New Year Hugh...strange meeting you here..I agree that until this storm strengthens, there is a possibility of a more westward track..but way too early to tell

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81715 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:41 PM

Yeah, maybe just a random thing, but if it keeps it up, it means it shoots the gap between Cuba and Jamaica and never hits land. It was showing it cutting across that SE tip, not it barely touches it. A little means a lot with such a sharp angle to Florida. That's the one big "mistake" of the NHC on location, is hitting Ft Meyers instead of Tampa, but it was a tiny difference in angle.

Almost all the models are to the west of the NHC now, all the all-stars on Skeetobite's list are. If it's a toss of a coin, prudence in prediction would be to warn the closest one.

As If I had a clue.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Models [Re: pcola]
      #81716 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:46 PM

Quote:

Happy New Year Hugh...strange meeting you here..I agree that until this storm strengthens, there is a possibility of a more westward track..but way too early to tell




Happy new year??? I guess I have not seen you on here this year LOL...
As long as Fay is moving west, it's going to shift the track further west. The lack of interaction with land (which will be the result of not going over much of Cuba) is a bad thing too. I guess we'll know what's going to happen in a couple of days, but no one in Florida can take their eyes off of Fay yet.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: Models [Re: Hugh]
      #81738 - Sun Aug 17 2008 07:48 AM

Doesn't look like we here in eastern NC can take our eyes off of Fay either. The GFDL particularly wants to put us in the game next week.

Looking at Cuban radar this morning looks like center is over land and is starting to make its turn. Turning sooner than path projections, could potentially mean a farther eastward track. Time will tell.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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Bulldg
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: 28.05N 80.62W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #81739 - Sun Aug 17 2008 08:25 AM

According to the NHC 5am advisory:

CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT, (earlier than expected ?)

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. (So now they are not so confident in thier initial track or forecasted track.. could this mean a shift to the EAST in the track ?)

THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

I'll be the first to admit I'm in no way an expert on any of this, but it sounds to me like they ( NHC ) still has NO CLUE on where Fay may go or end up..


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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay 27.85N 82.63W
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: Bulldg]
      #81742 - Sun Aug 17 2008 08:55 AM

Quote:

According to the NHC 5am advisory:

CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT, (earlier than expected ?)

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. (So now they are not so confident in thier initial track or forecasted track.. could this mean a shift to the EAST in the track ?)


I'll be the first to admit I'm in no way an expert on any of this, but it sounds to me like they ( NHC ) still has NO CLUE on where Fay may go or end up..




Per the 5AM Discussion:

THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE
TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT
MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT...

I think the reason you are concluding "they have no clue" on where Fay might go at this current time is probably because NHC does not want to put a lot of confidence in a forecast track based on indirect measurements of the current location of the surface center of Fay. I am sure by the 11AM or 5PM advisories they will have a little more confidence. Correct me if I am wrong but that's what I gather from reading the 5AM discussion.

~jess~

--------------------
~jess~



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