jessiej
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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The new models are out. They are all hooking way to the east in the Bahamas and missing Florida.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Until it actually forms, models are, as others have said, pretty much useless. I don't understand why they wold be hooking that far east when the LLC is moving due west, but we'll see what happens if it survives the mountains.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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At this point, this "Wave", "Depression" "Storm" is going to do what she is going to do. the mets in Puerto Rico are calling for a head on hit for the island, and it will be interesting to see what this does to the circulation. Right when you think we are getting a handle on this system, she throws a twist.. I thing tomorrow will have some more answers, or perhaps not....
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Looking at the SJU long-range radar now, the apparent LLC is just on the edge of the radar's range, moving basically due west on a course that will take it just north of San Juan. That'll put the strongest side of the storm away from the island, and keep it over water, I'm afraid. Comparing the radar with the AVN loop, it does appear that the LLC has not yet tucked itself completely in the middle of the convection, but that's not shocking since the system has not yet been classified (when the circulation is apparent on radar, and it's so close to land, I would have thought the would go ahead and pull the trigger, but they haven't.... but the convection has not persisted for several hours over a single LLC, either).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Quote:
Really good comments tonight here. Not much I can add.
There is one main area of convection, bright red on IR tonight and its on radar so if they can't find a center soon I don't know when they will. Can a mid level hover just above the surface? I remember a storm several years back that had 3 flights into a wave that looked like it was a strong Tropical Storm before they could find the elusive west wind.
The models have been very good on this so far and so that is good. Down the line it's a very hard forecast for the . IF it does follow the coast of Florida the slightest variation of degrees right can make the difference between landfall at Pt. Everglades, WPB or just clipping the Cape. That's down the road and right now we don't have a designated storm.
NHC makes the call.
LC- I just posted the following on Ed Dunhams recent forum--
'Ed-- could you help us understand how a system with this type of satellite presentation is not a depression despite the calm winds at the surface. I have been tracking storms for a long time and do not remember a senario like this.'
Touches on what you are mentioning about MLC. I just don't get it!
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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I was just about to comment that I think I see the "LLC" on the east edge of PR long range radar loop. Convection has fired just a bit s/sw of the "LLC". Most of the models that hook this out to sea or atleast take it east of Fl also initialize the system farther north than where it appears to be (has huge implications on projected path).
With now appearing to have maintained its westward movement, it is going to be really difficult for this to recurve without some impact on land.
I know the mountain ranges in Dom Rep/Haiti are tall and would (and have in the past) disrupt this system but what about the effects of PR if it goes directly over them?
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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There are some high areas of Puerto Rico, as well. Don't know how they compare to DR/Haiti, but they're pretty high (I drove up one 20 years ago).
The center appears to be moving all over the place... with a burst of convection forming northeast of Puerto Rico now. Amazing how quickly things change in developing systems.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Erin 1995 lived all over again the middle of next week? Well the thinks so on the New Oz run. Maybe alittle stronger like Jeanne. It's (to be honest) a very plausable scenerio with the trough exiting later this weekend into early next week and getting replaced by a strong ridge from Tuesday-Friday..anything under that ridge will slide W then WNW into the Gulf.
Too many things can still happen. It could get stronger earlier before 75W and catch the trough or it could even stay weaker and move closer to cuba then approach the keys and head more W across the southern gulf later next week. We will have a better idea every 12hrs and by Sunday 12Z runs...we will have a very good idea on what is happening.
This is why we all love trying to forecast the evolvement of Tropcial systems and weather in general. !!
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Yipes! I was just looking at that scenario and in the 21 years I've lived here don't remember anything just sitting there around southeast Florida like that -- closest thing to it probably was Jeanne, which moved north and looped back to the south and west before landfall; there's virtually no movement at all in this one for a few days. Guess the best thing to keep in mind if you're in Florida (or points further west based on the evolution of the scenario) is the caveat that the models aren't that trustworthy at this point.
Edited by saluki (Fri Aug 15 2008 01:01 AM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Puerto Rico does offer up some decent mountain ranges. I remember years back when I chased Hurricane Hugo. First we were on the north coast, then traveled down to Ponce, then crossed the island northward via a nice highway system in place there, and finally back to Luquillo/Farjardo area. I cannot however recall a decent sized tropical cyclone with a good size wind field actually torn apart from the island. I good hurting to a storms symetry - certainly a disruptive force. I have found that a storm will tend to "jump" or relocate more easily when passing near or over P.R., than what I call "the rock" ( Hispanola ).
Tonights run from 0Z certainly does join the camp of previous Euro, UK, , and models. Also contrary to recent runs, this one not only stalls the cyclone, but really intensifies it as well. In noticing the NAM, I realize it too has been very consistant run to run, however seems to fast. I think the solution is certainly plausable due to the COL created by a lifting trough and the building ridge. Timing would dictate if such a stall were to occur east of Andros Island, farther North or South along the Florida coastline, or even in the S. Bahamas. I just do not see recurvature as a likely event with the westerlies retreating northward while simply leaving a week hanging ocluded surface trough. More likely to me that recurvature would occur, would be for 92L to be severly disrupted by Hispanola.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Speaking of odd tracks, it just occured to me how curiously similar this potential track skirting just north of the island and possibly impacting S. Florida would be to Hurricane Donna. Any "older" Floridians here remember that one?! 
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
LC- I just posted the following on Ed Dunhams recent forum--
'Ed-- could you help us understand how a system with this type of satellite presentation is not a depression despite the calm winds at the surface. I have been tracking storms for a long time and do not remember a senario like this.'
Touches on what you are mentioning about MLC. I just don't get it!
Satellite can be very deceiving because, as it looks from the top-down and IR/visible satellite cannot look through clouds, you won't see the surface features in the midst of a region of convection. IR satellite is generally going to be poor at looking at surface features, anyway. You can use visible satellite to track low cloud motions outside of convection during the day, but even that won't be perfect.
Ultimately, though, convection like that which we've seen with 92L is a conduit for a lot of heat release in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere. That helps spawn a mid-level vortex/circulation, often also referred to as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), in those levels. This heating will help force lower surface pressures and, in some cases, the development of a low-level circulation beneath the MCV. Sometimes, though, convection will fire away from a pre-existing surface circulation, often causing there to be competing focal points for development. Heating because spread out over a large spatial extent rather than focused near one circulation (whether surface or mid-level). This can slow and hinder the development process until one feature becomes dominant.
The satellite appearance we have seen with 92L today is indicative of a healthy upper-level environment, one which has favored a convective burst to the NE of a pre-existing surface circulation. This convection helped spawn the development of an MCV around which further convection could organize. Outflow aloft is still present with these features too, giving the system the appearance of a healthy tropical system. But, alas, with no surface reflection or organization, you don't have a tropical cyclone. Often, though, these features are immediate precursors to tropical cyclone development! They are common in the Caribbean with fast-moving storms, where the storm motion is so fast to prevent there from being a closed surface circulation, and with disturbances in the deep tropical Atlantic that are in the early stages of development.
All in all, with everything but land interaction favorable, 92L is on the precipice of development...but given the limiting factors above, that's sorta how it can have the appearance that it does without yet being a tropical cyclone.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Local news here are now giving hourly updates on this wave.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Brett Addison
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
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It appears to me that we have Faye just from the satellite presentation. If the storm does get destroyed by the future land interactions I think that the will classify this storm as a tropical storm at the end of the season. This storm just looks too good to just be considered a tropical wave and not a depression or storm. I would also advise the governments of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to start issuing tropical storm warnings.
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tampa_looter
Unregistered
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last run showed a Cat 3 in Tampa 
Sure hope thats wrong.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I'm looking a the 12Z model swing, its amazing. Do you think they picked the LLC up furhter SW?
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Met office in Tampa is finally doing more than referring to a possible tropical wave.
...UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL SITUATION MEANS LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST UNTIL/WHEN/IF/WHERE A STORM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...
The Lee County Emergency Operations Center has issued a notice regarding possible severe weather affecting Southwest Florida late this weekend or early next week. It's good to see that folks here are paying attention, even without an official notice from the .
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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GFDL Now takes it well out into the gulf of mexico
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Until you have a low level center/it forms, take the models with a heap of salt, period. Lots of smoke right now, but no fire yet.
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garyspell
Unregistered
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I do remember Donna, was a teenager at the time. Of course as a teen that was an adventure but no longer.
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