Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
|
|
This certainly will go down as an oddity as I cant recall anytime in recent memory where you had a storm that looked very good, but did not have the essential characteristics to not be given a name. As far as what may happen: The models continue to shift until a center is fixed, but the only constant in these models is a turn to the north at some point. Having said that, I dont see the high building in much more before it begins to possibly retract to the east a bit more and create the northward turn. If this 92L does make it to the Gulf, I dont see it getting much further west in my opinion and thus would threaten the easternmost gulf sates as the extreme western location. I think this slow turn will begin sooner rather than later and will threaten Florida in some way. Obviously the key is where the center sets up shop and how much land it interacts with. If it holds its own then you most likely will see fairly impressive strenthening. If it becomes ragged over land, then you may have a sloppy tropical storm impacting Florida.
|
Mike V
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
|
|
I've been in several storms down here in Miami since 59, but one thing stands out with all of them. The birds tend to disappear before a storm comes. I have not seen any song birds since this AM, Plenty of doves and pigeons (don't know why they don't leave, I guess they hunker down), but definitely no songbirds.
Me thinks fay will hit this part of the coast, and I believe it may be a minimal hurricane.
Sorry if that is not scientific enough for the rest of ya (and btw, the info on this site is priceless), but I've just seen these signs too many times.
MV
--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.
|
madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
|
|
All I know is the 5pm 5-day forecast is NOT something I wanted to see. Ugh. It's got a bullseye right on us here at Charlotte Harbor, and this close to the anniversary, it was not a welcomed sight.
Not wishing it anywhere, but I'm hoping that little black line slides to the west or hooks a hard right to sea.
Guess I know what I'm doing this weekend. Time to get the generator fired up and the boards ready to go.
Ugh.
The only good thing I liked seeing was it running up Cuba's spine. Not good for Cuba, but hopefully it would tear it apart enough to take some of the starch out of it before/if it hits FL.
--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
|
Kaity
Unregistered
|
|
I totally agree with you, wildlife is the best thing to tell whats coming, we are in Oldsmar, Tampabay area and the wildlife activity has been seriously decreased. No birds no squirels no lizards and the gators are hunkered down.
We have been having storms off and on for most of the day. LOL Im begining to think, I am solar powered....
I think this one is coming into the Gulf, the one behind it is something to keep an eye on too.
You are right this is the best site to get info from, hubby works for wfla 8, and all the media is hype driven for ratings..... there is no hype here pure fact and stellar veteran experience.
|
tampa_looter
Unregistered
|
|
I dont know. Drew Park tampa here. Squirrels, gators, cats and birds out and being annoying as usual wish they would go into hiding.
I used to work at Reptron in oldsmar 
|
pope ron paul II
Unregistered
|
|
This storm has a pretty large axis. Imo, its going to effect tampa/west coast ALOT. Regardless.
|
IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Orlando
|
|
Quote:
This storm has a pretty large axis. Imo, its going to effect tampa/west coast ALOT. Regardless.
Along those lines, I wonder how large the core, the eye and radius of damaging winds will be as it approaches landfall? My guess is that it has the potential to be relatively large.
If Fay lives through the islands, I suspect that when she finds some open friendly water, some of those areas that have competed for the LLC might consolidate into something a little larger. Watching the observations from the Recon planes as they sampled the various areas of the storm this afternoon, started me thinking about the potential for a larger system if it can survive and stay together. As always, lots of ifs.
A "half full" perspective on a storm like this approaching Florida with an uncertain path;
Everyone needs to pay attention to it. It has only been a couple of years since FL was impacted by a hurricane, yet there is a noticeable level of complacency. Even if there were to be a South Florida landfall, folks there will have the weekend to finish preparations. Not like the 2004 Parade of Hurricanes, where they always showed up on Fridays and Saturdays, so that you had to try to prep during the week, often in the evenings... For those that did prep!
Hopefully people here in Florida will prep like mad this weekend, and then Fay will fall apart. That certainly would not be anything to be disappointed about. All of that prep is still a good investment, and not just for Hurricanes.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Well, the finally decided to pull the trigger. This is the first time I can remember that they pulled it on a system over Hispanola. Long-range model outputs are extremely disturbing to me... the latest runs move further west than the 5pm forecast, and plant a bullseye on my head, it would seem. Hopefully the storm will move whereever it's going fast enough not to gain significant strength.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Radilman1
Unregistered
|
|
Based on the 11pm discussion, I think Panama City, Fl is the current bullseye:
"..ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT."
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Well, Panama City is not in the clear for sure but there are still many things to play out before there is a really firm track to Fay. This may seem "old" but much of the Gulf Coast (East as well to a degree) needs to watch this system. There are many factors that can/will dictate what happens as to the track and we don't have a long time to watch and to prepare...as with long-tracking systems....Fay is knocking at someones back door now...excuse me while I answer that 
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 16 2008 02:56 AM)
|
DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
|
|
Did the just move more to the east bringing Fay over the Upper Keys and up the state of Florida. I'm confused I thought that it was further west. I haven't heard much talk about it. Why would it do that? Has intensity forecast of storm changed or the strength of the Low over the US that could pull it sharper to the north? I have always felt the center could go over the upper keys, possibly close to Key Largo making that swing and up through the Everglades though not sure at what exact angle affecting Naples more or the East Coast more.
--------------------
Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
The latest run moved quite a bit to the east, I'm not sure if it's just a model screwiness or a general trend right now, that solutions would keep it over water much much less, at least, but it's still suspect while the storm is over land.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
The models will be shifting east and west and back again for the next couple of days.
The LLC is now back over water,let's see if she gains strength,before going over Cuba.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Aug 16 2008 08:24 AM)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
Did the just move more to the east bringing Fay over the Upper Keys and up the state of Florida. I'm confused I thought that it was further west. I haven't heard much talk about it. Why would it do that? Has intensity forecast of storm changed or the strength of the Low over the US that could pull it sharper to the north? I have always felt the center could go over the upper keys, possibly close to Key Largo making that swing and up through the Everglades though not sure at what exact angle affecting Naples more or the East Coast more.
I looked into this a bit more, this and the HWCF moved east and judging from the init data looks like a bad run, you can probably ignore this, throw it out the window and wait for the next one.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
My biggest concern is we really won't know where it's going to go or how strong she will get until it leaves Cuba,and by then it will be so very close the S.Florida and the keys.There is reason to believe she could rapidly intensify over the very warm waters between Cuba and S.Florida.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Hello All,
I haven't posted in quite awhile, usually just content to read everyone's opinion and comments.
Interesting observation overnight is how the center has moved South off the coast of Hisanola and actually is on course toward Jamaca. I suspect a gradual turn to the WNW today and since she's over water, a good amount of intensification.
Everyone from the Keys on up the Florida West coast needs to watch this one.
By this time tomorrow, hopefully the models will come to a concensus on where Fay is headed and the local EOC's can begin
to make the proper preparations and plans.
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Interesting observation overnight is how the center has moved South off the coast of Hisanola and actually is on course toward Jamaca.
I noticed the same thing. The more south she goes the more west the track should shift. However that will also delay her arrival, as with all these system timing is critical.
Also just gotta say that WeatherUndergrounds new "WonderMaps" are awesome, you can see the satellite image overlaid with track data, local weather wind icons, radar and wind field projections, with amazing zoom level detail.
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
squirrely
Unregistered
|
|
Clark, I've noticed you and scottsvb have referred favorably to the model but I can't identify it by those initials on the various plots linked to these pages. Which one is it??
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
That also goes by the European, the latest track takes it through Lee County, I know those who went through do not want to hear that, however it also looks like things are still uncertain about the center of Fay, so it could go either way.
The next few days are going to be very difficult.
|
Rosy
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 9
Loc: Washington, DC
|
|
We certainly don't need another hurricane in Lee County, but I was hoping for some rain. This wait-and-see game is the worst.
--------------------
Survived:
Andrew '92 (Miami)
Charley '04 (Ft. Myers) (& weak side of Frances, Jeanne)
Wilma '05 (Ft. Myers)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
