Jester
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Loc: St Pete FL
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I don't post often, as a matter of fact I think this is my second post in about four years or so. I hope I'm in the right forum for this question. Being in the Tampa bay area it is understandable that I watched Fay with great interest. Long story short, the local mets have something called that seems to have nailed Fays track down to the mile. Is this a fluke? The spaghetti plots were coming together towards landfall but had the track all along.
Should I trust ?
Best,
J.
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John C
Unregistered
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A local station in Orlando is saying the same thing. But trust is a strong word. got 2 tropical storms right and all the rest wrong. Not to good on Hurricanes. Trust the when in doubt
Edited by John C (Tue Aug 19 2008 11:22 PM)
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Channel 9 (ABC) weather guy in Orlando, Tom Terry, says he doesn't think it'll make the Atlantic and he also said he doesn't think it'll track as far north as the is forecasting
Moved to the Forecast Lounge
Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 19 2008 11:35 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Other than the Ask/Tell Forum I think you posted in the right place during this event. is a radar/model product. Our local Met wxman007 can for sure fill you in as his station has and he had a hand on its development. I believe it is a spin off of the AF model? You may want to PM Jason as I don't recall him speaking about as forecasts goes.....too many models and too many solutions right now...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Comedy G F S Ensemble seriously, hey kids have crayons and draw yourself some model lines is what this looks like now.
The new , on the other hand keeps it over the Atlantic longer and then moves it in near Savannah, with the easterly trek that Fay seems to be having, this is a lot more likely than any of the runs, (They mostly are already off)
I still think the 's track is the best bet for now.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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interesting that the for invest 94 shows Fay heading into the Gulf, and the for Fay shows a more north path..but the ensemble seems pretty close as of now..should be fun to watch..nothing like the 5 day cone stretching from Bowling Green KY to 250 miles south of Pensacola........
(Post moved - Forecasts from long range models belong in the Forecast Lounge)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 24 2008 02:18 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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VIPIR is really two things. The software itself is a met data display platform...it was designed for the display of radar data originally, but was adapted for use with other datasets.
The model is a custom version of the Penn State that has been modified by Baron Services, the group that created . It has done very well with some storms, and not so well with others. It is a model, and all model data should be evaluated on a storm by storm basis...all of our forecast models have had good storms and bad storms.
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Jason Kelley
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Jester
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Loc: St Pete FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Okay, I have been gone for the last few hours and have come up with a few questions myself in regards to Tropical Storm Fay. Anyone can answer them, I just would like them confirmed.
1. Why is Fay Stationary? She is in the same exact place she was when I left at around 6:30pm EST. Is there a meteorological reason she is not going anywhere?
2. There has been some talk about Fay coming back toward us. What does this mean? Why would a Tropical Storm come back the way it entered? In this case, would she be much severe?
3. What are the chances of fay sticking around and the other Invest catching up to her? I know this sounds stupid on my part and all, but what is the likelihood of this happening?
4. Why are all of the weather plots just throwing Fay all over the place? Where does the , UKMET and other data plotters or what ever you call them get their data from? How do they predict where the storm will be? Why are they changing so sporadically?
Lastly, what is Fay's overall plans? Things look like she is trying to strengthen but is having trouble doing so. She is defiantly one of my weirdest storms I've ever tracked, and quite interesting for my first storm. I have another thought on my mind. Why is is still Windy in Fort Myers? Were getting the same tropical conditions we have been getting all day. Wind Gusts are the same as they were when Fay was here. The rain has stopped since the sun went down. Any probable reasons for all of this?
(at this rate, I am going to expect the unexpected with Fay. She seems to be one of the wildest storms anyone has seen, and tracked. After all, she did strengthen over land, as well as form an eye that was visible on satellite imagery over land as well. I think I'm safe to say that no one is quite sure what to expect with Fay. Am I right in saying this?)
Thats it for now. I suppose.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Radilman1
Unregistered
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Looks like Fay has taken a little jog to the east: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb&overlays=11101111&product=N0R&loop=yes
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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I say it's sitting here.
All day.
Then moving W, maybe WNW.
Daytona gets 15".
Apalachicola Bay by Friday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png
Look at the cone of THC's forecast.
The weirdest TS ever. ;}
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Captain Jed
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Fay is a dud.I called it a fizzle/drizzle Sun 130 pm.Its never had any legs,cant get it together,just a nice rainmaker,which Okeeechobee needed,as well as the Glades/Central Fl.Its still just going to be a rainmaker for Fl.Scott svb as usual,in my opinion,year after year,nails them.
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Bad Zebra
Registered User
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Wouldn't call it a dud where I'm sitting...trees down in Melbourne, scattered power outages throughout Brevard County. Several utility poles in the process of being replaced after being snapped. A good portion of my fencing is now layng on the lawn. Tornado ripped apart a manufactured home community Tuesday (surprise, surprise). and my pool's overflowing.
Edited by Bad Zebra (Wed Aug 20 2008 01:50 PM)
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pepper
Unregistered
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Any chance of percepitation and winds around hattiesburg ms?
Quote:
This is the "lounge" for 92L, the wave in the Central Atlantic. The place for just saying what you think. Don't take mine or anyone else's word for it here.
My guess is that whatever comes of 92L (if it develops or not) will remain mostly south (especially if it stays weaker now) and affect some of the islands and approach the Southeast or enter the Gulf at some point. It's the time of year where I start to take things like this a bit more serious, but any real discussion of it probably won't happen until we determine if it will form or not.
Interestingly the discussion for Houston this mornng mentions this system and they are curious to see if it'll enter the gulf.
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LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE
AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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well if Fay is off the coast now, there is still the possibility of that 4th florida landfall if it re-enters the gulf at some point..that has to be a first
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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sharless
Unregistered
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What are the local's 'gut' feeling about taking a booked vacation in Charlotte's Harbor next week or do I stay home in sunny CA? Have to fly through Atlanta, GA/Ft. Myers on 23rd & 30th...
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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why not go..next week Fay will be far, far away........
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Captain Jed
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
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California-Cleared for a landing,come on in,its nice now!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Well Gonna throw this out there for the short term. Fay sits sround breaking some florida rainfall 24 hour records. then the high coming digs south ahead fay forcing her into a Cyclonic loop probably a slight jog east followed by SE, WSW, W,WNW i will say it probably go's back in around vero to jupiter.
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sharless
Unregistered
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Capt. Jed-Your bio says resident sceptic, so if you think it's good to go, Cal. gals are coming...hope the storm brought lots of shells to shore, cause shelling & birdwatching is what I like to do. I appreciate the input.
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