MikeC
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4 PM EDT 15 August Update
The 's storm data files show that 92L will be classified as Tropical Storm Fay with 35 kt winds at 5 pm EDT. The full forecast package will be available within the hour.
11AM EDT 15 August Update
Still pretty much the same as this morning, remains on the verge (but not quite) organization, and may later today before nearing Hispaniola.
Also Beyond the islands, it now appears Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, Hati, Dominican Republic and south Florida and the Keys should be watching this one closely.
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar
8AM EDT 15 August Update
The wave near Puerto Rico (92L) still has not formed a low-level circulation, despite tons of convection, it is still generally moving toward the west and will likely have land interaction with Hati and the Dominican Republic, which is very mountainous. This likely would prevent much strengthening in the short term, or cause disruption to the system causing it to weaken . Recon aircraft will again be out there today searching for a low level circulation, which would indicate that a depression has formed, which it has about a 65% chance of doing so today.
The center is trying to form it seems, but it could be west and/or south of the Island .
Weaker systems, such as this, will tend to go further west. Those in Hati, the Dominican Republic, Southeastern Bahamas, and Eastern Cuba have the most to watch at this time.
Beyond that it really is still too early to tell, long range model runs aren't very reliable for weak systems like this.
Most turn it north before Florida, however.
Some models move it over the island land masses of the Greater Antilles, If it does go over land it would keep the system weak or cause it to fall apart, leaving less an issue for the Southeast, but cause big problems (especially in Hati) because of vast amounts of rainfall.
Check back over the weekend to find out more, especially after the system develops (if it does).
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
5PM EDT 14 August Update
Aircraft recon has gone through the wave over/northeast of the Virgin Islands this afternoon and has determined that it still has not formed enough of a low level circulation to be considered a tropical depression, although it could become one at any time tonight or tomorrow.
Also those in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Eastern Cuba will want to watch this very closely. For those in Florida, and elsewhere check back late tomorrow or Saturday to see what happens after the storm develops.
8AM EDT 14 August Update
A low pressure area within a tropical wave east of the lesser Antilles (aka 92L) is still moving westward this morning and will likely bring rain to the Northernmost Lesser Antilles, and possibly Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Development of the system is likely ether later today or tomorrow as the system is looking much better this morning overall.
Model projections in the long run may be a bit off, but the good news is that the normally better performing models and their current trends are turning it north before the US, the bad news is that it still hasn't developed and models aren't as trustworthy usually, especially if the system moves further due west. The Bahamas will need to watch this system extremely closely, though.
In short, those in the southeast still will keep an eye on this system. It may develop today or tomorrow, and it is worth keeping an eye on. Recon aircraft will be out there later today to help determine what the system is and gather data to help future forecast model runs, so watch trends. If the convection currently associated with the storm persists a bit we could see development into a depression today, negatives preventing this include finding a stable low level circulation near convection (which may keep it from developing fully today)
More to come as it happens...
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
Lesser Antilles Radar Mosaic
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MikeC
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T. Numbers (The satellite estimates) are up to 1.5 this morning, approaching the range (2.0) where it could be a depression, if it continues to stick over the next few hours and Recon gets in there later, we could have a storm to track today.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Umm Yes i have. I belive it was one of those strong waves early in agust back in 2001,2002 im sorry i dont have statistics but i remeber waves where recon found near hurricane force winds, and no close low to bout. Only for it al to fall apart later that evening or the next day. Im not saying this will, but its happend before.
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HanKFranK
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92L has an impressive structure for an unclassified system. it does look like the continuous burst of heavy convection is tailing the surface wave/low, which will need to straighten out before the system can start really rolling. expect recon will fix a developing storm later today... maybe already fay when they get there... that ought to graze very close to the northern islands. not sure how much proximity to hispaniola will temper the development, but a steady wnw track toward the southeastern bahamas through sunday-monday looks good and has plenty of model support. from there it gets iffy. model runs since early in the week have trended further west with the cut-off low, heading it for the southern high plains and rockies, instead of the red river valley and texas. as a result the heights aren't going to rise as quickly over the midwest and mid-atlantic, with the troughiness hanging on for longer than earlier projected.
when the system gets to the bahamas and reaches the periphery of the ridge it will be in a rather flat area of upper steering and perhaps drift northward as shown on some of the models. is trying to feed the system northeast and then into an upper cut-off near the mid-atlantic on the latest run. most of the globals and the hurricane models have it east of florida early next week, either waiting for some shortwave trough to dig more in response to it and whip it northeast, or for the troughiness to bypass and for ridging to slowly build in. complicating matters is the system to the east, 93L, which has shifted its emphasis southwestward to near 15/44 but is still shown by various models involving with the advancing inverted trough in the central atlantic and coming close to the east. other missing parts of the equation are feedback, i.e., the globals tend to show a weak system near the southeast, and with 93L, but will they pump the nearby mid-atlantic ridge up, and how will this affect rising heights over the continent, wave speed, etc. once 93L is clear of hispaniola, and likely developed, we will have a much better idea on intensity and maybe have a better version of the synoptic picture for the globals to chew on. model runs ought to become much more reliable over the weekend.
side note that another fairly impressive wave is now passing south of the cape verdes has another system written all over it. pretty far to the south, too.
HF 1536z14august
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 14 2008 03:36 PM)
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scottsvb
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vis satellite shows the LLC exposed to the WNW of the area of convection and passing over Anguilla heading about 275dg. I dont think they will make this a TD until the convection fires over the LLC. Winds are in excess of 40kts and it would probably bypass the TD status when this happens. I guess they could still upgrade it early if they feel they want to give out TS warnings to Puerto Rico.
Longer range is up in the air. I still follow the , and even though model trends 1 way from run to run, sometimes they jump right back to where they were predicting 24hrs ago.
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WeatherNut
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I think we are seeing the center reform at 18N 61W. There is definitely a MLC. The center that was WNW is all but gone at this point. I cannot detect it on visible anymore. The system is consolidating. The big if at this point is land interaction
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tampa_looter
Unregistered
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Satelitte looks terrific. I expect a classification regardless. Remember dolly wasnt technically a TS while it was in the Caribean, but went ahead with the classification. I expect the same here. I dont believe the dry air will effect it at all.
(Edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 15 2008 03:44 AM)
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CDMOrlando
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Recon is now on station. You can follow there path and data collection at this site. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
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cieldumort
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92L has had a well-defined and improving MLC since last night, but based on recon, buoy and ship reports, a still broad low level circulation with a couple of embedded weak, if not also transient, low level circulations.
This afternoon it is now readily apparent that even if one dominant, tight LLC is still lacking (which may or may not be the case - we will know a lot more after recon gets back in there and maybe a few more microwave passes), the MLC is so robust, so vigorous, and complete with an attendant, co-located upper-level anticyclone still building overhead, it would not be at all surprising to see an upgrade later this afternoon - and based on the winds, possibly going strait to Fay, if they close off a tight-enough, dominant LLC.
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Colleen A.
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I would have to say from looking at the images (and previous experience of looking at images) that 92L may very well be classified as a TS by 5pm for 2 reasons: it's proximity to land areas and the way it looks in general...it appears to be getting larger and more organized every couple of hours. I have no idea if it will stay that way, I'm just basing my statements on what satellite imagery is showing me right now.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MikeC
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T-numbers for 92L are now 2.0 which leaves it wide open for Depression status tonight, and it's pretty likely given what recon may find out there shortly.
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hwood
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Been watching this thing take shape and I think we are about to see it take off. The inflow seems to be really taking shape in all quads and covers much of the eastern carribean.
I am seeing alot of focus on track(which is obviously on everyone's mind), but does anyone see anything stopping this thing from getting very strong other than the big islands?
Wondering how strong the storm will get.
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Clark
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Not a ton to add to HF's analysis from earlier, but I'll chime in with a few notes...
92L has the look that is typical to disturbances that race through the Caribbean, looking nice and healthy but primarily focused in the mid-levels. 92L isn't racing, though, but it isn't immediately obvious if there's a well-defined surface low and, if so, where it is in relation to the mid-level center. There is healthy diffluence aloft, largely provided by the upper low centered on the eastern end of Cuba, and a nice outflow channel to the east provided by the upper low about 29N/55W if it wants to take advantage of that. Ultimately, it will develop, the question is just of where it goes from here? There's been a fair amount of clustering in forecast tracks along or just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola; obviously, any deviation southward will greatly complicate the intensity and track forecasts. It goes without saying, but anyone from the central Gulf up the southeast coast -- particularly Florida -- needs to watch this one.
What is left of 93L is currently centered 14N/47W and is about one convective burst away from turning the 's "Low" development probabilities into "High" probabilities once again. It is finally starting to escape a more stable environment characterized by marginal SSTs and some mid-level dust, moving into a warmer, cleaner environment as it nears 50W. Like 92L, it has a well-defined outflow channel, this one provided by an upper low near 32N/36W. The two disturbances are far enough apart that both have a chance to develop, with 93L likely to take the Caribbean route rather than the Bahamas path that 92L looks to be headed along. We'll reevaluate this one in a couple of days.
The disturbance HF alluded to out near the Cape Verdes is likely to end up as 94L later today or tomorrow. The in particular has been very aggressive in developing that system and having it cause trouble somewhere in the basin in the next couple of weeks. Just something to watch for as we head toward the peak of the season.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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sophie
Unregistered
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I don't know about you guys but I live in Jacksonville, Fl and the bells are just going off in my head and well I just have a bad feeling that this system is going to be heading our way. I last remember feeling about a system coming our way was back in 2005 when TS Tammy played havoc with us and dropped alot of rain on us. Why do I see the same scenario being played out, but only this time a stronger system?
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Colleen A.
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Sophie...I understand your feelings of "alarm bells ringing" very well. The best advice I can give you is to follow this closely, be prepared and remember...it's a pretty long way from Jacksonville or any other Florida area at this time. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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mar32366
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Sophie don't jump the gun yet. There is still alot of time and many scenerios, so prepare and watch the updates. We should know more this weekend.
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MikeC
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Recon did not find a closed level circulation, so it still remains a wave at this time (although it could form into a depression at any time tonight). Mostly those in the Islands all the way to Eastern Cuba and Bahamas need to watch this very closely. Anything beyond that is really too early to tell, especially since it has not yet formed.
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cieldumort
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That 92L has yet to come together should be of some extra concern to those of us wondering about possible landfall locations. For now, and until things finally come together (assuming they do), it is still unpleasantly difficult for models and forecasters to get a good grip on the vigorous wave/low's's likely trajectory and possible interactions ahead. The only good news, if there is good news, is that it is not yet a tropical cyclone, which does sort of allow for the slim possibility, however increasingly unlikely, that it never does become a tropical cyclone.
Standard rules applying, a shallower, less-developed system will tend to track more often with the low-level flow. However, the most recent 92L has for the better part of 48 hours or so, also been represented by the impressive mid-level circulation, which keeps trying to reform a permanent center closer to its center, so far without much luck. Without any real clarity to all of the mumbo-jumbo, if there is any certainty, it is almost certain that locations as potentially far left as Texas and as far right as the vast blue Atlantic ocean remain in play. In a perverse way, the sooner the feature can pull it together, the better. Model runs might become a lot more dependable, and if it pulls it together strongly, perhaps all the hand wringing will be for naught as it could just hook out to sea before coming too close to land.
Right behind 92L, 93L is very close to being green-balled (reactivated). As Clark points out, just one solid convective burst might very well force 's hand at putting it back on their wave tracking map all colored in red. It is worth noting that when these two were both a bit closer and battling for their lives in an unfavorable atmosphere, it wasn't clear if they wouldn't just cancel each other out. No longer the case. 92 and 93 both now have more than enough breathing room -and better conditions- to become big headaches in the days to come. "93" already appears to have a broad, yet closed low either at, or just slightly above the surface, and pressures appear to be down around 1008mb.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Picking up on a major convective burst in the last few frames closer to where the alleged LLC is. System could be aligning better now. Look for persistence with new flare up. This could be the trigger for upgrade by tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Thu Aug 14 2008 11:56 PM)
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Rookie from 33913
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This is my first post. I am a complete Rookie. I want to thank all of you. I love this place. 
Ok now I will show you how much of a rookie I am. In this picture is this an eye or a high cloud top?
Thanks
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
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