MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Because of Fay's unprecidented tenaciousness, and remaining strong and actually increasing strength over Florida, Hurricane watches are now up for the Northern Florida Coastline from Flagler Beach north to Altamaha sound in Georgia.
From the current National Hurricane Center Forecast, Fay is expected to rain a lot move slowly north northeast, exit over the Atlantic near Palm Bay, strengthen into a hurricane, and then move back over Florida near Jacksonville. It is very likely this general track will verify.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.
Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days.
Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.
HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay
Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]
More to come soon...
General Fay Related Links:
Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Jacksonville FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Fay plotted on Google Map
Fay Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Fay
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Wave 94L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 94L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
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Tenacious, yes. There is almost no movement of the "eye" between the 19:45 and the 20:15 NOAA Visible images. Might be a long night for you folks in So. Florida.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Latest model takes Fay into the Atlantic, back over Florida into the Gulf, strengthening, and into the Panhandle.....this may be a long, long time before over.....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here's the station the is referring to in the 5pm. Notice... Eye went right over the center of the station. Wind Gust on Northern Eyewall was 60mph and pressure went down to 986mb. Some remarkable data!
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MS65DW
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Actually, If you turn on Lat/Lon, there has been almost due north movement from 18:15Z.
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M.A.
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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I might be seeing things. Is it me or has Fay become better organized on radar in the past 3 hrs. I have not seen her look this semetrical. It is something I havenever seen before. Maybe this has something to do with the strong mid level circulation that has been with this storm from day one. Maybe someone can shed some light on this for me.
Here in Vero Beach, we have had gusts to about 45 mph and approximately 4.5 inches of rain so far.
Mike
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It has gotten a little better organized on Radar, and it's still moving north northeast.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Looking at the big picture and looking over current upper level maps, really cannot discount the model. The has been showing this turn back to the west across Florida for a couple days now before the others as the ridge builds back in the next 24-36 hours. Even bringing the storm further south then what it started with. The new 18Z run takes it 20-30 miles off Melbourne area and then straight shot west back across central Florida exiting near Tampa area then moving northwest and eventually north into the panhandle area. Seeing how this storm structure as held its own and even gotten better through the day with a nice inner core wouldnt surprise me one bit to see this get to Cat 2 strength over the warm gulf stream. I feel we will be seeing further south adjustments to the track as time goes along, this was noted in the 5pm discussion. Folks in central and northern Florida will want to pay close attention to this over the next day...
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Quote:
It has gotten a little better organized on Radar, and it's still moving north northeast.
agree here, i am very impressed to see on Miami and Melbourne radar that she has 3 eyewalls on the east side... this storm is very structured in her core right now... if she can make it to the atlantic without too much disruption, a Hurricane ramp up is looking more likely... then its just a matter of where the west turn will be.
one thing i noticed in the 18Z is now it brings another High into the picture out of Canda and in into western Great Lakes region this weekend... err
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 06:36 PM)
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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Where can I see the model?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Joe the 12Z took it back west to just north of Clearwater...the 18Z is further north taking it out across Citrus county. 0z run might shift back south some or who knows. Still even if Fay does track further south from Melbourne-Cocoa west thru Pasco....TB will be on the south side with alot of moisture flowing up from the gulf and decent T.S force winds. Still some "ifs" on the return path. Could be as far north as Jacksonville...but I do think its a florida thing and not GA.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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My mistake scott I was looking over the 12Z thinking it was 18Z, and yes it take it more WNW towards Citrus county similar to that 06Z run with the 12Z run looking similar to that of the 0z run last night. I agree with its likely a Florida threat.
GFS run link...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_l.shtml
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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wow..how about a storm that could possibly make 4 florida landfalls...Key West..Southwest FL..East Coast...Panhandle
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
wow..how about a storm that could possibly make 4 florida landfalls...Key West..Southwest FL..East Coast...Panhandle
I'm not ENTIRELY convinced about the East Coast landfall.... because I'm not convinced it's going to make it to the Atlantic. Fay is undoubtably the weirdest storm I've ever tracked, now surpassing Elena!
Question for the Mets.... do you know of a tropical storm ever doing what Fay has done and is forecast by many models to do? (Make landfall along the western Florida Peninsula, then strengthen over land, then go back into the Gulf, and head who knows where!)
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 19 2008 07:27 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I have to agree. I am not totally convinced it will make it to the Atlantic.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Hugh,
Gordon in 94 came close....
As did Florence in 1960...
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Jason Kelley
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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All 3 storms Jason mentioned on this map (google plot)
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gatorman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc:
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jason, i really trust your forecasting the most when it comes to these hurricanes, watched you for many years, what do you think this "Fay" is going to do? do you think it will enter the atlantic then pass over land back to the gulf? or what??? thanks ......
Edited by gatorman (Tue Aug 19 2008 08:26 PM)
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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The 8:00 position is same as the 7:00 seems she has stalled. Wonder if fay is feeling trough leaving her behind. WV shows trough racing out past fay. Curious to see if this is a true stall or just a momentary situation.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Looking at Nexrad on wunderground, this thing did not move from 7:44 to 8:14 pm EDT.
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