vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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I realize that Fay does not have an eye, but here in New Smyrna it feels exactly like inside the eye of a system. Hardly any wind, spray-like drizzle and eerie calm. We even had just a little sunshine earlier in the day and its hard to believe that there are winds rotating around us.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
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Not sure if any other users from Jax, but, here today has been the most perfectly messed up day, Humidity must be nearing 1000% percent, winds blustery, clouds flying by with teasing blues peaking here and there. It has rained on and off at times heavy, but, mostly lighter.
Three weeks ago we were complaining that we needed rain, I guess sometimes we get what we ask for whether we really want it or not...LOL.
-Artsy Fartsy
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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looks like the coc is about 10 miles east notheast of Titusville, and trying to wrap some convection around it....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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lsutigerfan
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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I was wondering what is keeping this system from going due west back into the GOM and moving on toward Louisiana or texas coast?
Sorry if this is the wrong forum to ask this question. Im a newbie!!!
Thanks! 
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the storm is going to ride the edge of the high pressure ridge..moving west. The says the ridge will be north of the coast, thus the demise of Fay in a few days, but it could enter the Gulf and head inland farther west near Mobile, but the models are moving more towards the inland route
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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There's really nothing to stop it...I don't know if it will go back due west across the state, but I just don't see it getting that much further north..although as you can see, the disagrees with me.
BTW...you are in the right place to ask this question. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Over the last 2 hours the radar presentation of Fay is really improving. I do believe that Fay is going to try to strengthen a little bit before it moves west later tonight or tomorrow.
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Jason Kelley
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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
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Some traffic reports from the Florida Highway Patrol mentioning the locations of street flooding, etc. in Brevard,
Traffic reports page:
http://www.flhsmv.gov/fhp/traffic/ You can also see the incident locations on Google maps.
Obstruction on Highway BREVARD I-95 SB EXIT x[SR-520 W, MM 201] [COCOA]
NORTHBOUND ENTRANCE RAMP IS CLOSED FOR CONSTRUCTION UNITL 8-27 ON I-95 AT SR 520 MM 201
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD WICKHAM RD x[PARKWAY DR] [MELBOURNE] WICKHAM ROAD SHUT DOWN DUE TO FLOODING
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD SR-A1A x[PINEDA CSWY ENT WB] [SATELLITE BEACH] RIGHT LANE UNDER WATER
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD TROPICAL TRL x[TEQUESTA HARBOR DR] [MERRITT ISLAND] MINOR FLOODING OVER THE ROAD, ROAD IS OPEN
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD WICKHAM RD x[PINEDA CSWY] [MELBOURNE] ROADWAY FLOODED
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD SR-5 N x[ANSIN RD] [ROCKLEDGE] ROADWAY FLOODED
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD SR-5 N x[SUNTREE BLVD]
[ROCKLEDGE] ROADWAY FLOODED JUST NORTH OF SUNTREE BLVD
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD JOHN RODES BLVD x[US-192 W] [MELBOURNE] JOHN RODES BLVD FLOODED
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD LAKE WASHINGTON RD x[TURTLE MOUND RD] [MELBOURNE]
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD SR-518 E x[PINEWOOD RD] [MELBOURNE]
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER BREVARD WICKHAM RD x[SHOPPES DR] [MELBOURNE]
Disabled Vehicle in Roadway BREVARD I-95 NB x[MM197.0] [ROCKLEDGE]
Disabled Vehicle in Roadway BREVARD I-95 NB x[MM191.0] [MELBOURNE] PARTIAL ROAD BLOCK AT THE MM191
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 66
Loc:
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More people die in these storms from water related issues rather than wind related. Everyone needs to be very careful out there!
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
Over the last 2 hours the radar presentation of Fay is really improving. I do believe that Fay is going to try to strengthen a little bit before it moves west later tonight or tomorrow.
Yes, I just noticed the same thing right here.
Just just read on the 's advisory that Fay is not expected to strengthen much. Good.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
Edited by vineyardsaker (Wed Aug 20 2008 10:07 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Pressure is falling...now down to 993 mb...
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Jason Kelley
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
Over the last 2 hours the radar presentation of Fay is really improving. I do believe that Fay is going to try to strengthen a little bit before it moves west later tonight or tomorrow.
Recon spit out a 993 mb SFC. pressure reading just a few minutes ago in the latest vortex message, a drop of 4 mb since the 5 p estimate. With the radar presentation improving, showing a nearly closed eye-like feature of about 50 mi width (though recon did not consider it to be an eye), Fay could well strengthen some before moving inland. The large size and relative coolness of the near-coastal waters may hinder that somewhat, though.
Jason and I, needless to say, are hoping at the 12Z track does not verify. There's still a very good chance Fay ends up in the Gulf in some form, particularly if the ridge is stronger than the other models forecast, but we want no part of the model's forecast. Independent of that, though, this will be a heavy rainfall event for many along the I-10 corridor from west of Jacksonville through to Pensacola or Mobile in the next few days.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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True comment as people can hide from the wind easier. Even when you aren't running from the water people get into accidents and either way the damage from the water is pervasive, everywhere. This is a catastrophy beyond description.
And, it's not over. We need to start tracking TS different than hurricanes.
Perhaps someone like could make street tracks for areas for who will get weather, the tail, the dirty side, etc.
And, the tail is supposed to dump tomorrow on lots of people including south florida.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I was just thinking she must be getting stronger or moving more north, Up here in SE Georgia it has been really quiet other than a short shower and light wind gusts now it appears to be more overcast and the wind is picking up.
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 66
Loc:
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She does not appear to be moving more north at this time.
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DWalk
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Radar looks as though she may be starting to head W or WSW even. Am I just seeing things? Center also appears to be closing up a little.
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
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The Air Force weather officer at work had mentioned something about the ULL near Texas could have some impact on Fay. Problem is that it is a fall type low and the tropical models are having a hard time with the interaction between a fall low and a tropical system. Any thoughts on that? I am just a comm type guy, and can only guess about atmospheric interaction.
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I notice an elongation in the CoC on radar from east to west. Is this indicative of the start of the move west?
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Captain Jed
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
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I thought i posted something about a nice rainmaking windfield?Am I wrong?
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gatorman
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc:
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ok, i know its weird, but,, it does look as if a slight movement to the west is happening, maybe a wobble?? or is this the westward movement we were looking for? but wasnt it supposed to be a northwest movement? it gets into the gulf,, look out panhandle!!!! maybe the high is strnger than was expected?? ideas anyone??? 
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