Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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in agreement with bob, i agree on easternmost track becoming more possible. i have goes up 24-7 im watching this thing, it is getting torn up right now and is looking very unorganized, but, as of 4:15 am, to 8:45 am, there is still a preety clear NW movement. keep in mind also, if this thing continues to slow up, and shear apart, it will give it more time to change its mind on direction. I think friday into saturday will be the deciding vote.
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craigm
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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The center was exposed earlier this morning and is now filling in. Clearly looks to me like Gustav has started his westward trek although forward speed will certainly add a variable on how the enviornment will evolve over time in front of him. There seems to be enough uncertainty with the models and NWS analysis that I would say anywhere from the lower keys to along the entire gulf coast needs to watch this. Somewhat less of a threat to SE Florida due to the consensus that it will make it to the SE GOM by day 4 or 5 coupled with the fact that the 3 day cone usually verifies. After that any kind of solution that would turn it hard to the right is doubtful because I don't think the models would miss a long wave pattern that would cause such a shift, subtle changes yes but not a deep trough.
Link to start of westward movement:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Wed Aug 27 2008 02:32 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Fay is just wobbling over the last 18hrs. Its movement NW is really just a jog. There is no strong cold front to push Gustav N, he will go W around the ridge and then NW towards the GOM. I'm not sold on the FL thing, except the Keys getting rainbands and probably TS watches or warnings. We will know today with the 12Z model runs and especially later tonight with the 0z runs and what movement during the day took place.
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doug
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I am interested in that trough which is now pushing into NW Colorado/ Nebraska. It looks pretty vigorous, but it may not penetrate to a low enough latitude. There still seems to be weak high pressure over eastern Texas extending eastward over coastal LA.
If that persists or strengthens that should favor a westward track. It looks like all that will set up tomorrow more clearly. So that puts me in agreement with those who say Gus will have to show his hand today and tomorrow at least before the GOM dynamic is clear enough to make a reasonably accurate assessment. I have no reason to know if the high now influencing the projected track will or won't hold. It looks as if it may have shifted SW since yesterday a bit, which may also push Gus further south and west than first thought. Gus is moving mostly west very slowly. The influence of the peninsula is hindering re-structuring, but signs of the process beginning are there, with convection south and west toward Jamaica developing. I think today will be a long day in the life of Gus, with very little new happenning.
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doug
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metwannabe
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Hard to locate the center, and although Cuban radar not as high resolution as what we are usded to, looking at right now it does look as if the center is still either very close to N coast of Haiti or even maybe drifting back over land.
Do not under estimate the disrupting power of the mountainous terrain of the "rock". I agree with the kinda wait and see mode right now, not too early to be prepared but too early too panic, it is still only a TS now and the more it gets torn apart the more this will affect not only future intensitiy but future track. Once he clears land and starts to become better defined then we may be able to put some confidence in model trends.
(media wasting no time in hyping this up, already effecting oil prices)
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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madmumbler
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Loc: SWFL
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I don't like seeing the 11am forecast swing a little back to the east, but it's too soon to tell if this is a temporary trend or not. I nearly got whiplash from Fay's track forecasts. But if I was living in NOLO, I do believe there'd be some gut-tightening going on. This is going to be one of those storms they're going to be bouncing back and forth in terms of long-term for a day or so, at least.
As always, it just goes to show that when you do have a storm like this, NOW is the time to prepare, not waiting until they do know better where it's going to go. There's a good four to six days at least before a severe impact (hopefully) and it bears paying close attention to.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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MikeC
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The largest threat area remains Northwest Texas through the states to the East into the Florida Panhandle.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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yeah mike, i keep hearing about the pan handle becoming a threat now. i personally am going to wait for that 8pm advisory tonight, that will tell us all a lot of what we really want to know im sure of it.
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CDMOrlando
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Loc: seminole cnty florida
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
147 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
VALID AUG 27/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...
...TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...
THE 00Z SHOWS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF GUSTAV APPROXIMATELY 16 MB HIGHER AND ITS POSITION APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTHEAST OF OBSERVED AT 00Z. THE 00Z SHOWS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 14 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED AT 00Z.
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
12Z MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...7 DROPSONDES AND 5 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z INGEST IN SUPPORT OF TS GUSTAV...
I would like to see the models initialize the data properly before making any plans or lack of plans.
Edited by CDMOrlando (Wed Aug 27 2008 03:55 PM)
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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anything from no east is a threat to the panhandle, ...worst case for us here in pensacola is a storm like that comes due north to the al state line, like did....even hit here with the eye and the worst surge damage was in the big bend....best scenario for us is west of the mouth of the mississippi...
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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Gustav is still on my early forecasted path (page 2).. This is a straight forward movement to the west then wnw towards the western GOM. From Northern Mx-Central Lousiana needs to keep a eye on this system. I dont see this getting any stronger than a Cat 3, probably a high end 2 near landfall as it will encounter some shear.
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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I agree that Florida is NOT out of danger just because the 5-day shows it well west of here. It bothers me when people at work look at that 5-day, see it west of us and go, "Nothing to worry about, it won't hit us". Amazes me how short memories are of how storms wobble and swerve. I am trying to teach them to look at how wide the cone is when it reaches our latitude. The wider it is, the less certain the track and the more potential danger to our area. That 5-day cone is about 800 miles wide at Tampa's latitude and I will NOT let my guard down, no matter what the local TV mets say. Just seeing it shift so we are on the very edge of the cone shows this. It DOES seem pretty clear that it is headed into the Gulf SOMEWHERE. The more it slows, the less certain things will get. If you live along the GOM, your motto ought to be, "keep your eyes on the cone".
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Evan Johnson
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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originally predicted was a WEST then a WNW movement. currently it shifted NW to WNW. between the 8 am and 11am advisory today. it has made no clear forward movement to the west scott. it has shifted just a LITTLE bit to the west. giving us the WNW movement. and right now for me its incredibly difficult to see movement. tracking the coc has been rough for me even with 2 days of time loops. its incredibly difficult to make those calls, hence why our weather guys are holding off till thurs or friday for their predictions. we just dont know.
9A 08/27 8:00 AM 18.8N 73.7W 60MPH 997mb Northwest near 5 MPH TS Gustav 08/27 7:49 AM Pasch/rhome
10 08/27 11:00 AM 18.8N 74.0W 60MPH 997mb West-northwest near 5 MPH TS Gustav 08/27 10:34 AM Pasch
Edited by Evan McCone (Wed Aug 27 2008 04:32 PM)
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scottsvb
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Sorry , but its on its forecasted (not only by me) movement. Its moving slowly west or just north of due west. There is no strong cold front to push out the Bahama-Florida ridge. There never is this time of year (July-Aug) unless a cold front or a midlevel trough digs down into the central or eastern gulf (and there isnt) to cause any tropical storms near Cuba or in the GOM to move towards Florida (east of 85W). It's simple Meteorology001 classwork. The Panhandle-N.O. isnt out of the woods.
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Evan Johnson
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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im going based upon the advisorys that are data logged by numerous weather stations around the united states. so if there was a movement to the west. it had to have happened between 8 am and 11am but it isnt happening now. and im preety sure the 2pm advisory will state the same. and you should really know, metorology 101 states "follow the advisorys from the NWS".
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scottsvb
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2pm adv might just still say WNW cause its moving @ 285dg-290dg right now, and it should continue to bend more towards a 270dg motion with wobble of 280dg over the next day or so, then a more WNW movement towards the western tip of Cuba.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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"Gustav is still on my early forecasted path (page 2).. This is a straight forward movement to the west then wnw"
im just trying to clerify what you mean that is all. i dont want anybody to get confused around here. its just i trust the advisorys from the NWS as they are preety accurate. if it does make a straight forward west movement it wont be for some time, if any straight west movement at all.
Edited by Evan McCone (Wed Aug 27 2008 04:59 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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The NWS is accurate, but they also coordinate with the and TPC. The NWS ADJUSTS their forecasts with the info they give them. Follow the for all movement and predictions over me or anyone else.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2008&storm=7 , at the bottom is the advisorys from the . they say the same thing.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I think the when doing movements do an average of the last 6hrs or 9hrs for movement.But,he did move .3w only between 8-11am,is that a trend?we will have to wait and see.
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