hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Loc: florida
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The front in the Midwest will eventually bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms from the Red River Valley through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday.
Sunday and Monday, the Gulf Coast could be dealing with current Tropical Storm Gustav. http://www.weather.com/newscenter/nationalforecast/index.html?from=secondarynav
In my case if this storm is still near cuba by saturday it will start to feel that front coming from the midwest. But it will also depend on how strong this front is. Its going to be a intresting one this week !
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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new models runs offer little change with both and looking at the central gulf, with both bouncing back and forth.....i really feel until we see the sytem in the gulf or at least turning that way, anywhere in the GOM is in play
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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West movement confirmed with the @ 2pm and has been moving almost due west @ 270-275dg for the past 4-6hrs actually. I have it located around 18.9N and 74.4W so its about right on. A general W movement with some wobbles can be expect until later Thursday with a bend WNW by then.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Someone posted this link before but I found it very helpful is visualizing what Gus is up against (aka the wall I've referred to):
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/nws1.gif
The chart is kind of hard to read because its rotated but you can clearly see the ridge running thru Cuba and into the GOM. This high pressure bubble is currently protecting FL - Gus can't go thru it, he must go around. Right now he is kind of stuck and got ripped apart so the motion is very hard to judge. I assume this stalling motion has caused some of the models to show the track thru the Keys, but not sure. At this point it almost looks like the center is trying to reform off the western tip of Haiti, so it possible in the next update we could see a big jump indicating a western movement.
There are a couple of ways for Gus to reach S FL, but they all involved him moving much faster or much slower, neither of which are forecast. I personally think the 5-day is too far west but the range of error at that time frame is so wide its anyones guess... thus I tend to just monitor the 3-day cone.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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It's about time!We have had several model runs that bring it near the central GOM sometime Monday.Seems the is fairly confident in it's forecast track.We will have to see what the shear will be when he gets into the GOM,that could be the only thing that COULD hold it back from becoming a major cane.Let's hope and pray the shear is high.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Bob the west movement was only about 6hrs late.,,,, it stalled for a few hours right when it went back over water very early this morning,, then it started to move just north of west. This movement by most models wasnt expected until this morning.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Once the storm makes the turn into the gulf, I think it will be clearer as to eventual landfall. Its looking like a LA landfall to me or possibly west of there. Other than maybe extreme western FL panhandle, I think FL misses this one (right now...of course this could/will change)
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Quote:
West movement confirmed with the @ 2pm and has been moving almost due west @ 270-275dg for the past 4-6hrs actually. I have it located around 18.9N and 74.4W so its about right on. A general W movement with some wobbles can be expect until later Thursday with a bend WNW by then.
I guess the 6hr rule comes into play here sure does look disorganized at the moment though.A definite pattern of weak steering currents in the Carib for the last 2wks.I personally hate it for the most part.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Regarding that Surface graphic image sent earlier, I see the 1012 isobar line which I am assuming shows the general shape of the boundary of high pressure area that is mentioned as "blocking" Gustav (stated like a true non-Met!)
The question I have has to do with where that "12" isobar was yesterday. It appears to be retreating east at a fair clip when you compare today's position with yesterdays position (see the attached JPG from yesterday at 21UTC).
If it continues that retreat east at the same rate, it seems like it wouldn't take long to be mostly out of the Gulf; and if so, would that not start to move the forcast direction more northerly and eventually northeasterly?
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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RE: The graphic I mentioned in my post before, I think I maxed out the allowable size. Here is a smaller one.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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i am really surprised that the track and the ae in so much agreement..may just be coincidence, but the did a poor job with fay if i recall...but it continues to move slowly east...i wonder if this is a direct result to the slow movement with Gus, or the ridge just not being strong enough.....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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it is still going at 5mph i think it will speed up within the next day, but fay slowed up too and does anyone remember when it slowed it the different track they had? wjere they moved it more east? where is this frontal boundry anyway? i cant see it on the sat pics.
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Patrick99
Registered User
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By my eye, west movement has clearly started.
Please read the site rules. No one line posts.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 27 2008 08:23 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Gus has weakened but should fire back up..the shows Gus slowing as it nears the Gulf Coast, that is not a good thing, especially if it is a cat 3 as forecast
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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DonaldT
Registered User
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Quote:
Gus has weakened but should fire back up..the shows Gus slowing as it nears the Gulf Coast, that is not a good thing, especially if it is a cat 3 as forecast
...and we all know what that means...it could get even stronger than that....but hopefully not.
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DonaldT
Registered User
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Quote:
It's about time!We have had several model runs that bring it near the central GOM sometime Monday.Seems the is fairly confident in it's forecast track.We will have to see what the shear will be when he gets into the GOM,that could be the only thing that COULD hold it back from becoming a major cane.Let's hope and pray the shear is high.
Well, according to current forecasts, there's little that would prevent Gustav from re-strenghthening once the storm enters the Gulf...especially with the very warm water temperatures there.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The last couple of vis sat pics are showing a convective burst very near the center which indicates to me that re-intensification may be already underway. Gustav remains a rather small, compact system and, as he moves farther West away from land and over some very warm and deep water, I'd expect some pretty good ramp up in strength. Fay didn't churn up the waters there much with SSTs still 30 - 31 degrees Celsius. I also would not be surprised at a slightly south of west track for a time later tonight or early tomorrow.
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Michael
PWS
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The strongest convection... really the only strong convection that exists.... in Gustav is due south of Jamaica, FAR away from the LLC. Convection has at times tried to develop over the apparent LLC but it's been sheared off quickly.
All of the models in the world are useless in tracking a tropical cyclone if the cyclone ceases to exist, and while I expect Gustav to restrengthen over time, right now, it's barely alive in my judgement.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the coc is definately south of the forcast point....almost looks over land on the very tip of Haiti....if it does not move more west ..models will shift
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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I completely agree with you Hugh... The "storm" is completely exposed. There is no convection whatsoever around the center and it is all displaced to the south and east. It will take a bit of time for it to ramp up again and given all of the shear that is seemingly pushing all the convection off center, I think the will most definitely push out the timeline as to when this thing possibly becomes a hurricane again.
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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