JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Good call by Hugh a few posts back.
Gus got really pounded by the High to the north, he bounced off the "wall" and went SOUTH just like UKMET said. I had feeling this might happen, but he didn't so much as jump but got sheared and completely reformed off Jamaica!
Looking at the water vapor loop I'd say the UKMET still has the right solution, Gus still has to steer WSW over Jamaica. If that motion continues this thing could hit Mexico! I still don't see how Gus could reach the northern Gulf coast given the flow over the GOM, but the models (and ) keep holding onto that (scary) solution.
Now back home in S FL we might have to worry about TD#8 (Hanna?) 
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
OK....I quit......just when the shifts its track west, some of the globals, including the shift to the east, with the no pointing at the mouth of mobile bay, and the stalling the system in the northern gulf.....for me the solution is simple, i will leave the shutters up until the xmas lights go up....this is nerveracking
I know we are supposed to not put too much faith into the 5 day cone or the models that far out, but this gets so nerve racking when the track wobbles away from you and then back in a constant loop of back and forth. On one note they are saying that the high over florida will move off to the east and keep 95L (Hanna) from spinning out to sea. Yet the models hold it in place enough to keep Gustav from recurving more North to the panhandle of Florida. What gives? Which is it?
The key ot this quandry is the timing of it all. 95L (hanna) is currently 8-10 days from impacting florida or the bahamas if it follows the current models, whereas Gus is only 5-6 days away from making landfall on the gulf coast. This gives Gus time to follow the ridge along the west side of the high pressure center and make landfall before the high moves at all, and then 3-4 days for the high to start moving east and impact 95L's path.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
I dont know about 8-10, maybe 5-7days. Gustav is really getting better organized, like I said last night,should be a hurricane by this afternoon.
|
PensacolaWX
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
|
|
Looking at the recent satellite images, I would have to say that it looks like Gustav has formed well north of the forecasted points and is moving W, not SW. It seems to appear like it will be impacting the Northeast corner of Jamaica. This is well north or the forecasted track of moving to the south side of Jamaica.
|
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
|
|
I'd say Gustav is very close if not already a hurricane again. Vis sat seems to show an eye trying to form again and would appear to be decent intensification going on. If winds have caught up to the pressure falls, would not be surprised to see hurricane at 11:00 update.
(I tracked recon through tropicalatlantic.com in google earth, it has crashed, any other sites like that availalbe, pm me if you know thanks)
still tropical storm at 1100, will probably be there this afternoon
--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Edited by metwannabe (Thu Aug 28 2008 10:53 AM)
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
11AM update is out. Still not a hurricane according to the winds, but the direction has indeed shifted to due west. Even though the winds are still at 70mph like the earlier update, the pressure has dropped from 988 to 983mb so it is definitely still strenthening. Also, new high level convection can be seen on the most recent visible satellite imagery just over the eastern Jamaica coast. So now the question is, will Gus stay over Jamaica long enough to weaken again? Or will it turn NW or speed up (as is forecasted) in time to prevent any weakening?
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
Gustav seems to elude the forcasters once again he looks like he is about to skirt the coast N and any further intensification for day will cease till much later.At least he is finally moving some
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
models still all over the place..ukmet has come slightly toward the ease, more near track....this storm is giving everyone fits, but i must say the photo of hanna, gus, and the flare up in the bay of campeche is intersting.....and gas went up 12 cents this morning here
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
12z model in..takes Gus to central gulf below LA, stalls it, then moves it southwest to near Brownsvile Texas....pftttttttttttt.
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
PensacolaWX
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
|
|
Quote:
12z model in..takes Gus to central gulf below LA, stalls it, then moves it southwest to near Brownsvile Texas....pftttttttttttt.
But why does it not intensify the storm at all on that model run? I basically shows a TS all the way through the gulf. With the amount of warm water, low sheer, etc... I just don't see how it could not strengthen as it moves over the gulf. For yours and my sake here in Pensacola, I always welcome model runs that shift west. 
The takes it and stalls it right along the east cost of Florida. WOW didn't see anything like that coming out of a model. 
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
I don't have a lot of faith in the lately. That said, it looks like Gustav is going to run the length of Jamaica and won't intensify (maybe weaken) while there. Once he moves west of Jamaica, there is little to impede intensification. I still have my doubts of the 4 and 5 day positions and strength forecasts. I would think that we will be seeing a cat 3 storm in the Gulf come Sunday. Where it goes from there is still highly uncertain. There is still a persistent SW high level flow over the GOM, but I can make out a somewhat counter flow at the mid-levels below that on the WV loops. The patterns are very complex and anything beyond late Saturday/early Sunday is suspect. It's still very much a wait and see scenario.
--------------------
Michael
PWS
|
RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
|
|
Quote:
The patterns are very complex and anything beyond late Saturday/early Sunday is suspect. It's still very much a wait and see scenario.
Agree. The shift in the latest is proof of that! It's a significant shift and shows how the atmosphere is changing in ways that we don't fully understand - at least not well enough to make a very accurate projection beyond 48 hrs. I think there are some significant changes coming in the next 24 hours with regards to model predictions and track forecasts. (Those poor folks have got to be pulling their hair out.) Again, the is not all that strong on intensity prediction - you have to look at the trends from run to run. Right now, the trends don't look very good if you're anywhere between Jamaica and the U.S. Gulf coast. Very interesting!
--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Outflow around Gus is looking really good, he should start gaining strength as forecast, the high to his north has backed up (or weaken) slightly which will allow the predicted WNW motion near the Caymans. Everything in front of him points to intensification: weak winds aloft, very warm waters & no land masses. He just has to wrap up and avoid any disruption from the mountains of Jamaica.
In the meantime, the low in front of Hanna seems to be shearing her apart, hard to tell whats going to happen out there. There is an "alley" of sorts around 25N that she might be able to squeeze thru... but it appears to be too narrow, maybe this is why the keeps her at TS levels till Sunday.
Plus we've got that huge blowup in the southern GOM and several waves coming off Africa!
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
ok..question time...it seems to me Gustav is moving at a slower pace than expected...with the ridge expected to break down, would a slower movement mean a turn farther east, and thus a further west track? makes sense,, but then again, nothing makes sense with this storm
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
maybe I'm just being dunce....but can you explain your question a little better? A turn east means a western track?
|
RU12
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc:
|
|
Any thoughts on Gus turning more to the east if rapid intensification occurs? Seems to be what usually happens as storms get more powerful...they start tracking to the east of the forecasted track(s). With the models in realative agreement for 3 to 4 days, I'm beginning to think that the cone will start to narrow tomorrow morning. My gut is that it will be between nawlins and p'cola. The 's 1800 run is still holding steady to the east of nawlins but I wouldn't be surprised if it shifts a little further east by this time tomorrow. Just my $0.02.
|
saltysenior
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 19
Loc: stuart,fl.
|
|
i'm new but,,,, looking at the 7;30 edt 8/28 hyperactive tropics display, it looks like central fl. is getting alot of something??... from coast to coast ++ ...when i go to melbourne radar , it shows just some local heavy t/s in the ocala area...nothing like the hyper.site. .....is this ''sensationalism'' ?????
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
It looks like Gus is still taking a mostly southern route along Jamaica, actually looks like part of the eye is still over water, so I don't think Jamaica will rip it up as much as some people think. We may have a hurricane by the 8 am update, and almost certainly will by the 11am update. The most recent spaghetti models only have about 3-5 models going into NOLA or a little east of there, with about 10-15 going west of NOLA.
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
i'm new but,,,, looking at the 7;30 edt 8/28 hyperactive tropics display, it looks like central fl. is getting alot of something??... from coast to coast ++ ...when i go to melbourne radar , it shows just some local heavy t/s in the ocala area...nothing like the hyper.site. .....is this ''sensationalism'' ?????
The Hyperactive map that is shown is the Infrared picture, so it picks up on the temperature of the clouds and things, but the bright colors don't necessarily mean heavy rain like a normal radar would.
Nasa IR Radar
You can see from the legend on that page the meanings of the different colors.
|
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
|
|
If the forecast for Gustav would play out as forecast, the angular approach to the coast may reduce storm surge somewhat, very important for the Louisiana coast. This is why Andrew, a category three hurricane when it hit Louisiana, only produced a eight-foot storm surge; however, Vermilion Bay (on the south Louisiana coast) would act as a funnel for areas very near where the eye made landfall (as of now Intracoastal City), again assuming the forecast plays out (which is why I am posting in the lounge).
On a different note, it looks like the is forecasting a -repeat (mouth of Mississippi River then Mississippi Sound), the HWRF is forecast a -repeat (southwest Louisiana), and the is forecasting a Lili repeat (Vermilion Bay)! I would say we could probably narrow it down to upper Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi at this point.
I am watching this one very closely as Lafayette, Louisiana is my hometown (in Baton Rouge for now).
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
