craigm
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Fay was certainly an interesting warmup for the rest of the season. Although as I am writing this I know some of you are still feeling her effects or are about to in the next couple days. Turning our attention back on the basin there was a great discussion this morning out of NWS PR regarding how ripe the environment is across the basin and into the caribbean:
http://www.weathercarib.com/080820-discussion1.txt
Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 25 2008 06:19 PM)
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mmellc
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Loc: WI
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I have been watching the disturbance to the east of 94L. It appears to have begun some circulation and organization. It will be interesting to watch.
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Evan Johnson
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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well, 94l is moving slowly but i can spot a little bit of circulation. here we go again florida 
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MichaelA
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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94L's convection has decreased this morning. The two areas to the SE of 94L seem to be holding up fairly well, though. 95L (40W; 18N) is moving along at quite a good clip. Lots of moisture south of 15N btwn 35W and the windward islands. Plenty of "soup" there to boil and bubble.
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Michael
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Evan Johnson
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it just has the makings of fay. looks like it atleast. now its tropical storm bumper cars.
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MichaelA
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The area near 53W; 11N looks better this afternoon. has the entire region circled as having pretty good potential for development.
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Michael
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kents
Unregistered
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South Florida water management shows 94L is being tracked with models. It looks to be aimed at South Florida.Jus wondering why our local mets haven't mentioned this?
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
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Ed in Va
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Most of the models are currently showing it going into the Gulf
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=94
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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kents
Unregistered
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Thanks Ed! Sorry, I guess I was looking at 95L. Total novice here. Either way though, both of them aren't being mentioned. Usually we hear about them for days. Just wondering why.
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B_from_NC
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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That area will most likely be marked red this evening. With the upper level windflow diminishing and the area beginning to ramp up what appears to be a circluation, we very well may have a new TD tomorrow AM and Gustav shortly thereafter...
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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Evan Johnson
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yeah it is starting to look like so sadly. im following this area of low preassure closely. it looks like it is starting to tighten up. and all the computer models point to bad luck for florida. starting to look like 04 for us all over again. i think b from nc might be accurate. although, our news channel weathermen are playing this down. whether it is because of fay or not, i recall back when we got hit with the trio, the ones that came after they were quiet about. i suppose they dont wanna throw any red flags up considering the atlantic basin is highly unpredictable this season.
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Lee-Delray
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It is too early to say where 94l is going. It's already 160 miles further east then the models have it (Dr. Masters on Wunderground). If that is correct, it will most likely go into the Gulf. Sadly, in that bath tub the storm may really ramp up.
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Evan Johnson
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right, however it goes into that gulf, all it takes is one of the many fronts moving through to spike the ENE movement thus looping west to east as well. either that or louisiana it is. either way i dont like the looks of it.
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weathernet
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94L has really taken on a nice tight appearant turning in the last few satellite frames. Rather hard to see unless one look at a Rainbow, JSL, or perhaps IR ( without color enchancement ) due to the bursting convection taking place as of this post. At the seemingly low latitude of approx. 10N-12N, the 18Z model consensus seems to very much favor a "close call" with Jamaica in 96-120 hr's. No doubt a great many Club Med'er's, vacationing Hedonists, and island folk might want to keep a watch to the southeast for this one. Interestingly, from a Climotology Model link ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al942008_climo.png ), it is even more interesting to see that of 7 Climotology applicable tracks, 5 continue on thereafter, to visit the Sunshine State ( that is, before Fay arrived ).
That said, I took a gander at the available 96hr. - 160 hr.'s -18Z ( 500mb ), and from looking at the forecasted steering, one could not help but think tthat the closest that "Baby Gustav" could come to the U.S., would be by maybe sneaking up on S. California, via crossing Central America. At the moment, sure looks like a nice big 'ol ridge over the southeastern U.S..
It is curious how once again, the typically reliable EURO has been consistantly ( over several runs ) trying to bring a significant TC into or threatening the Greater Antilles. Conversly, the has been very unimpressed with 94L, until the 18Z run. Now it has also jumped on the bandwagon, and will wait to see some 0Z model consistancy here - as well as perhaps the WRF model.
I believe that 94L might just really "ramp up" fairly quickly. I say this because of the fact that it is late August, upper air seems conducive, and the fact that current satellite presentation is fairly impressive. The fact that a big majority consensus of models happen to bring 94L right up to a Tropical Storm in 6-12 hours, is fairly compelling too.
95L does not impress me, by appearance of satellite. I am concerned however given the fact that Fay formed at a slightly high latitude, and although the limited convection with 95L is presently around 18N, it would not surprise me at all for altogether new convection were to start blowing up by tomm. a.m., along the wave axis - but forther south perhaps closer to 15N. Seems like a strong surge of moisture with a lot of vorticity coming with this wave. 
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MichaelA
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94L has a lot of convection firing today, but still no discernible organization. It is a bit South to be getting organized very quickly. Convection has fired up with the wave in the Eastern Caribbean to the West of 94L so far today and 95L looks a bit more organized today as well. Lots of potential areas to keep an eye on out there.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed in Va
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Anyone else notice this on the Canadian model...is has 94L, I guess, crossing Cuba, with another storm at the same time moving towards the SE. I haven't seen it anywhere else.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MichaelA
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It is the only model that is developing both 94L and 95L (more for 95L). It doesn't look like any of the other models have gotten a good grip on either of them. However, there is a consensus that 94L would end up over Hispaniola/Cuba/Bahamas.
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
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To be honest I'm not thrilled about 94L, it may have a chance in the western carribean but its no threat really right now to the Gulf. Its weak, has no NW winds and if anything models are begining to come inline with the on a weak system. Vis imagry suggests the LLC is near 61.5W way west of the T-Storm complex. Now that's not saying a new LLC might form later tonight. The newer 12Z run shows little if anything until Jamaica but I dont like the anyways.
95L does have a better chance to develop, although with that said, there is no threat to anywhere as of right now.
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weathernet
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95L may indeed form quicker, at least with regards to area of "open real estate". Its only problem may be forward movement and outrunning itself. 94L could be having issues with convergence, given proximity to S. America. Latest Quickscat shows what might appear as an alongated fully closed low, but perhaps over Trinidad. Models that do want to develop it, or forecast motion, insist on a WNW to NW motion, but for now would assume maintaining a overall westward march with the low level flow ( at least until it gets its act together ).
As for the Canadian model..............., I saw how the 12Z run really ramps this baby up and heads it to just south of Central Cuba. When I see the majority of other models not pick up on development, especially the most relable ones, I simply choose to not even look at the model. I have developed the opinion of this model that, if a lone person on a sailboat in the middle of the Atlantic were to spray an aresol can......, that the model would likley pick up on it and evenually develop THAT into a hurricane as well. I just do not know what the over all value of this model is, with regards to tropical cyclogenisis ( unless perhaps usefull for future motion, once developed....). Would certainly be interested in any MET's insights with regards to this model's current beneficial use. 
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Like to hear a little bit about the future features.
94 and 95 are interesting in models.
CMC has them almost colliding to the east of Florida and the and HWRF duke out different scenarios.
Meanwhile, 94 is way too low and 95 seems high though with the big, strong high I think 95 will get further west than we think as most systems have this summer.
They are both 2 question marks hanging over our future as Fay rains herself out finally, we could have trouble of the same kind in a week or so.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 24 2008 03:08 AM)
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