Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hi saltysenior! I live in Lakeland..we were only supposed to get a 20% chance of rain today...so to say the least, I was shocked by the intensity of the storms we got tonight. My pool overflowed, some people lost power..and although the rain stopped after after a good 1-2" drenching, the lightning kept on until almost 9pm. No ''sensationalism'' ..believe me.
Needless to say, weather is DEFINITELY not an absolute! 
Just goes to show you...
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE . HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
Just a clip from the discussion of the from that 11pm EDT update.
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RU12
Registered User
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Noticed that the BAMs have shifted back to the east .Looks like the the UKMET was furtherest west and they've already got a 0600 UKMET run. The new run only goes out 48 hours unlike the 0000 run. Any where to get the longer version of the UKMET? Looks like the has shifted a little further east as well. Still in a "wait and see" mode but not liking what I see.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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One of our local station's mets along with NC State have developed their own weather forecast model, primarily for weather features other than TC. However, it has done remarkably well with TC paths in the past few years. I only mention this because, and again this is not official and not to worry anyone, but this morning their model has Gustav turning nnw to n and coming inland in panhandle of Fl. One thing I have noticed with this model is although it may not always be exact in its projections it does usually hint at the trend and I am thinking that the trend may be now for Gustav to turn more NNW. Still to early and this would be a major shift in track but could be something to watch.
again this is just one scenario, always follow forecast.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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well the 06Z sure is a peach...it does have Gustav hitting somewhere over the central gulf coast and stalling inland, but has Hanna moving through the florida straits toward, you guessed it, the Gulf.......models are in less agreement this am than they have been for the last day, but the possibility of a system stalling in the northern Gulf and meandering until something picks it up seems more likely.....similar to Elena, which all over hte northern Gulf
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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jf
Verified CFHC User
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It seems as though the most recent few radar clips are showing GUSTAV moving in a more NW motion. If that persists all the models will shift to the east. Does anyone see similar findings from your own observations observations.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Yes it is moving at approx. 285 degrees at 7 knots according to the latest forecast discussion...however, even though a temporarily more NNW direction is forecast as Gus crosses Cuba...the high pressure center moving down from the Ohio Valley in the US is supposed to take Gus in a Westerly direction in the last day or two before landfall putting it in west LA/East TX. This is still very dependent on timing of everything.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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That NW jog in the movement is easier to see on the last three hours of the MIMIC imagery:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_07L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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Metwannabe... Interesting note. Could you share a link or contact to these models from NC State.
We could all use a new / good set of models to compare.
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cmiller73
Registered User
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Loc: Houma, Louisiana
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I don't claim to be any expert but can someone enlighten me on what kinds of impact on Gus does that trough in the middle of the Gulf would have in the next day or two? That trough seems to be going further south and may block Gus for going west.
Am I seeing this correctly?
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Quote:
I don't claim to be any expert but can someone enlighten me on what kinds of impact on Gus does that trough in the middle of the Gulf would have in the next day or two? That trough seems to be going further sought and may block Gus for going west.
Am I seeing this correctly?
Well it can go one of two ways really. The trough is going to create a weakspot between the high pressure that's currently over Florida and the High pressure that is moving south from the US. Depending on the timing of how everything comes together, Gus can follow that weakspot slightly and turn north or possibly slightly NE, but if the High pressure from up in the middle of the US gets into place in time before Gus can latch onto the trough, it will most likely cause Gus to stall a little, and turn more west than the tracks are showing right now.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Nothing is out of the question once Gustav enters the GOM. Now that Gustav has grown nearly 3x in coverage, he will begin having more influence over the surrounding environment rather than responding to that environment as would be the case if he had remained small and compact. The current forecast track at the 4 and 5 day range is simply a split down the middle of the model guidance. Gustav could end up anywhere within the cone of error.
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Michael
PWS
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RU12
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From what I can tell, the COC appears to be headed to the right of the current forcast track. I'm using the water vapor loop and then turning the forcast points "on". Am I seeing things or is the forcast points not correct? If this is truly sliding to the right, the may be the more credible model. Like already mentioned by others, the later runs will be what tells the story when more accurate data has been obtained from recon.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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At this point, there are going to be minor shifts to the right or left of the forecast track in the short term as Gustav strengthens. I've had many professors/mentors tell me that these hurricane centers aren't simply static features you move on a playing board - they're constantly interacting with their environment, strengthening, weakening, and "re-forming" in response to convection, steering currents, and topography.
There is great certainty on Gustav impacting W. Cuba, but exactly how it will impact the northern Gulf coast remains to be seen. If I were an Emergency Manager anywhere along the Gulf coast, I'd be prepared for lots of rain if indeed Gustav slows its forward motion just as it approaches landfall (Mon-Wed). Florida already knows what these "soakers" can do.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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As said stated in the previous post, now Gus is taking a more WNW track than he was prior to the 2pm EDT update and is back on the original projected path to go just west of the smaller of the Cayman Islands....
Oh, and he is a hurricane again now as well!
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cmiller73
Registered User
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Loc: Houma, Louisiana
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Quote:
Oh, and he is a hurricane again now as well!
And it looks like a visible eye is forming in the visible sats.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Yes the storm is starting to look quite impressive at this point, the visible eye forming as well as some very good convection is building on the E and NE side of the storm.
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jf
Verified CFHC User
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With Gustav building on the N and NE it appears as though Gustav wants to track a little more N of NW , slightly E of the track forecast. Gustav is growing very fast and soon will have a mind of his own and will not be as affected by minor steering events. The high to the north looks as though it will not drop down as far south as previously thought. After Gustav gets into the Gulf everyone needs to be aware of where its going. This is going to be a very bad Labor Day for some area of the Gulf
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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5pm is out with confirmed movement to the NW. Side note on Jeff Masters blog he is urging NO residents to get out now. It does not seem like a bad idea to me. Better safe than sorry
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Yep Gus is getting his act together. The most recent model runs have him pushing a bit more west. The UKMET has been doing a good job with Gus's and that shows the most SW landfall of all the models. I'm really worried with all the focus on the Big Easy (for obvious reasons) that those living to the W and E don't realize how wide the cone is - AL thru TX are still within the realm of possibility for landfall!
Looking at the various loops and other data there seems to be a weakness over TX and 'canes tend to take the path of least resistance. Before I thought the was trending too far west, now it seems like the opposite is occurring due to how slowly Gus moved over the last two days. Gus missed his chance to ride the flow E into FL... and now all the upper level steering winds are swing around to the west as the ridge slides up and out. I've been using the CCIMS products for analysis as the data goes back 4 days.
As for Hanna I think she is drunk  tropical systems rarely move SOUTH unless its a loop, a stall or a relocation of the center... so I will not even comment on her future track at this point in time.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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